A Crack in the Glass : Watching structural changes
Watching structural changes
Publication date: 2021-10-14
[Image: Mr. Fish]
This article has no references, yet. Coming.
The reportedly Chinese curse of "may you live in interesting times" is being visited upon us. The current furor in Europe over energy policy is self-created. Of course the Eurocrats are blaming the Russians, ignoring their own stupidity and the Maidan debacle in 2014 Ukraine. Its helped the odd person, say, US President's son H Biden, and military contractors, but not so much for Ukraine itself, who are actually selling their own soil to foreign companies. If there is any "end of empire" behaviour, this has got to be it.
During the Yeltsin years in the 90's western energy companies attempted to stake out interests in Russia's energy supply and distribution networks. When intelligence operative and nationalist Putin came along they got the "Niet!", as did Russian oligarchs who were not prepared to bend themselves to the wheel of rebuilding Russia's national pride.
The probably apocryphal story goes that Mr. Putin gathered the oligarchs who had or had not been doing deals with the West. Without having to tell them that they either align with the new nationalist program or have the power of the state thrown at them, as happens everywhere from west to east to non-aligned, the warning was given: get with the program or emigrate. Some chose the later and bought football teams or industrial companies, or both. Others chose to stay. It was a clearing house; the chickens sorted by the farmhouse.
Of particular recent brilliance was a visit to Moscow by a US State Department representative. Things needed to be discussed! There were diplomatic issues requiring engagement! Not being able to raise a previous Nazi leader from the dead, the almighty wise of the State Department chose Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland, wife of Robert "Neo-Con" Kagan as the emissary. The US had to trade 3 or so "removed from sanctions list" Russian diplomats/operatives to get Vicky off the equivalent Russian blockade.
Come Nuland did, and echoing the Chinese treatment of what-was-her-name, Russia gave Nuland access to her equivalent level diplomatic representative, but not more. In a complete shock and awe response we learn that shit-fuck-all was achieved by this central player in the 2014 Ukraine coup. Likely the Russians are happy for the 3-to-1 exchange on visa unblocking. Nuland met her counterpart, but also a Russian general and the key thing seems to have been enabling diplomatic exchange via reductions in restrictions on diplomatic missions. Not surprisingly this was one of the outcomes of the July "summit" between Putin and Biden in Switzerland. Perhaps this is diplo-speak for "let the spies spy", but recently the CIA sent an "all points bulletin" proclaiming a loss of co-opted agents and thus a reduction in their HUMINT capability. Who knows? The CIA doesn't issue propaganda.
That "gas supply" problem will not go away for the Euro'peans, and it has absolutely nothing to do with the inflation caused by the Fed or ECB in pumping money at zero interest rates into the global economy, by way of inflation. Energy Policy is just nasty. People dying from lack of heat does not tabulate well for electoral politics. All sorts of not controlled or poorly understood political forces can gain unwanted traction! What we have now is such a lovely inversion. The Europeans are "demanding" Russian gas supply and the "Russians" are complying. Invert to grok.
Lets do a little dive into the "outer reaches of empire".
* Iran is just pretty. New president whoever has sufficient influence over Iraq, Syria is stabilized, Hezbollah is fine, and the Houthi's are okay too. The SCO is managing the Pakistani, Afghani challenge. The annoyance is the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict. Manageable.
* For Afghanistan the problems are the constant threats of destabilization. The "west" are throwing disruption bombs via ISIS-K (or whatever new name they come up with) to make suffering more permanent than it was. Again, the SCO is the solution here, particularly, Russia. Though, the "stans" have a big role to play in stabilization and find political balance. That is the real issue, ignoring the rare-earth minerals.
* Africa is the uncontrolled space. Everyone is there; Russia, China, France, USA etc.. The rare-earth minerals essential for digital technology supply, upon which so much of west dominance is dependent are rife in Africa, especially Coltan in the Congo. This pervasive puri-political problem is an unspoken silence.
* South/Central Latin America is a nightmare for the USA. Bribing the new Ecuadorian government with USD 4 billion to allow UK police to enter the territory of their embassy in London to arrest and carry out Wikileaks founder, journalist, editor and publisher Julian Assange has completely undermined any sense of "free press" under their watch. Meanwhile, their coup in Bolivia has been reversed by democratic elections, the socialist government in Venezuela continues despite their efforts (who was Gaido anyway?), and Lula is released from the jail into which he was put by them to allow the election of the extremist Bolsinaro. Oh, and revolts in Chile have been shadowing the older 9/11 coup.
* In southeast Asia, Indonesia has been staying under the radar, quite sensibly, but USA efforts to court Vietnam against China met with puzzlement as Vice President "stay off the gangplank" Harris spoke of "the USA is Back!". India has been playing its cards carefully, and Pakistan has been given the green light by SCO (China/Russia) to influence Afghanistan. Malaysia and Laos are receiving funds for transport infrastructure from China, but other players are less visible, particularly Cambodia and Myanmar.
* The middle east is a very rapidly changing space. Iraq seems to be playing a diplomatic hub game, and its recent election shows a diversity of parties akin to western Europe; a government to be formed by coalition. Syria has survived its imposed proxy war and Iran is still there supporting it. Lebanon is screwed with financial pressure, but Hezbollah has sufficient external support to survive. Egypt and Jordan are repairing relations with Syria, thus eliminating the local proxy war, and now Turkey needs to deal with the Takrifi's in Idlib, as the Russian's offer them various military and financial projects to get them (him, Erdogan) in line.
* Oceania is again an irrelevancy. Micro-nesia, Polynesia, PNG, the X/Y/Z atols are useful only as supporting votes in UN general or "temporary member" security council votes. Maybe Australia or New Zealand have some influence? Ha ha.
At this last point, I ask my audience to think about geopolitics, and that "can not be forgotten" energy policy, and how difficult government policy can be. To create a Uranium mining industry in Australia to satisfy European or USA desire for the mineral is possible. But, it requires incursion into, indeed destruction of, native lands. This is traded for economic compensation, which is a bribe for access, to facilitate the political relations which provide the security guarantees of the ephemeral military alliances.
When one sees how tenuous this all is, there must be more distinct financial exchanges which enable such a speculative "trade".
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