[Updated] A Dangerous Bind
Escalate and damage your economies while helping your foes, or admit defeat?
Published: 2026-03-17
Updated 2026-03-18: Added video by Ben Norton on the challenge to the Petrodollar.
Arnaud Bertrand summarized the betrayal by USrael to start its war on Iran:
100% Defeated Military Keeps Firing Back
US President Trump lies and dissembles fluently. His proclamation that the US military had destroyed 100% of Iran’s military rang false when Iran’s Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) launched their next wave of aerospace attacks.
On Tuesday 17th March, 2026, IRGC launched wave 57 which they said targeted “command and communication systems as well as missile defence infrastructure” in Israel, and “US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar” [Al Mayadeen]
You Broke it You Own it
In response to Trump’s plea for allies, or any nation, including China, to help him impose his will on the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz the universal response has been no, or silence. Its your war, USrael, you fix it.
Freedom of Navigation This
The Strait of Hormuz is not closed.
The waterway, or half of it, is part of Iran’s territorial waters. The whole is now part of a war zone created by USrael. It now has correspondingly expensive shipping insurance.
Tankers flagged with, or delivering to, the aggressor nations or their allies are not permitted by Iran to use the strait. Other tankers flagged or deliverying to Iranian allies, or nations who have asked like Bangladesh, are able to use the strait.
Unpacking Optics
Some rather strange and selective targeting can be explained.
Trump’s attack on Kharg island, which pumps most Iranian oil onto tankers, damaged some military infrastructure, including the airport runway, but did not damaged the oil storage, or pumping facilities. The attack was for headlines in US media and to satisfy Trump’s love of violent spectacle.
Bombing the runway denies it for use by the US military as a logistics landing strip to support a potential “boots on the ground” invasion. Iran is not using the airport for its military. Iran is, primarily, flying drones and firing missiles.
The Trump attack on Kharg Island was militarily irrelevant. It was a media stunt.
If Trump had attacked the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island Iran would have followed up by executing its published response. Iran would have attacked most of the major oil facilities in the region, setting them ablaze. Its response would crash the world economy.
The reason the US president did not attack Iran’s oil facilities on Kharg island is because of the consequences. Those would have been implemented by a capable and well armed Iranian military.
Iran’s Asymmetric Military
Trump claimed he has destroyed Iran’s navy. Well, sail your carriers into the strait then, Trump!
Iran’s maritime defence is based on small fast ships which are stored, like all of Iran’s important military systems, underground. The US navy is 1000 Kms away, or more, because it understands the threats it faces from Iranian drones and missiles (its “airforce”). Iran’s fast boats and naval drones are a reserve force for use in the Strait, should circumstances require them.
Bound in one’s own chains
As Joe Lauria, Editor in Chief of Consortium News reported, the political leadership of US and Israel are in a bind. They have lost the war and can’t admit it.
The genocidal leaders can escalate and cause no significant military damage to Iran but cause actual damage to the their national economies, or they can back off and admit defeat.
The problem is the scope of that defeat.
For the US, that defeat includes the Petro-dollar, whereby the Gulf monarchies pay for protection, which has now proven to be a lie, in return for only selling energy in US dollars and investing those dollars in the US economy and/or stock market. This recycling of oil profits through the US economy has funded the US military industrial complex. Without the Petro-dollar, the US will have to account for its $40 trillion of debt and will also have to scale back its military industrial complex. The empire will shrink.
For Israel, it will lose its protector which has been gifting it $4 billion of military equipment per year for decades. Israel will have to pay for its defence in a region where it has oppressed its neighbours. This will bankrupt Israel which will lead to its depopulation.
In the short term, the news cycle might return to the genocide in Palestine and the Epstein, USrael, child sex, political extortion racket.
Update 2026-03-18
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson is an expert on the current conflict across Iran and the Strait of Hormuz because he was militarily involved in a similar conflict over oil flow in the same region in 1988 at the end of the Iraq-Iran war.
In Wilkerson’s view, Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu it entirely committed to this illegal war on Iran. US Secretary of State Rubio has admitted that Israel convinced the US to start the war with Israel, otherwise the US regime would be politically forced to come into it later because the US Zionist lobby would force them to by exerting its political influence. Trump was, suggested Wilkerson, trapped into the war. Wilkerson believes Trump is equally trapped into remaining in the war, unable to de-escalate.
Therefore, the US will not be able to extricate itself from this war, which threatens the global economy and Israel’s potential use of nuclear weapons, until at least one of Trump or Netanyahu is removed from office.
Wilkerson related that Iran has refused to engage in diplomacy with the US until the US has changed its president. This suggests that Iran’s political leadership (i.e its security council) agrees with Wilkerson’s analysis. There is no point speaking with Trump to de-escalating the conflict.
Iran has acknowledged the martyrdom of its most senior national security figure, Larijani. The political assassination was executed by Israel.
Netanyahu, and Israel more generally, are painting a very large target on Netanyahu.
The Israeli Prime Minister is viewed as the ultimate impediment to de-escalation. He is also approving political assassinations (Nasrallah, the entire Yemeni cabinet, Haniyeh, Larijani, …).
If the competent foreign service of a state which felt threatened by the continued escalation of the war wanted to increase the likelihood of a different future course it may believe that an effective action would be to assassinate Netanyahu. Israel’s security service seems to understands this threat.
Netanyahu, the political leader who is the root impediment to de-escalation, is not keeping any normal schedule. He is on the run. He has disappeared into the land of AI generated videos.
Update sources
Ali Larijani: Iran security chief martyred in US-Israeli attack; Al Mayadeen English; Al Mayadeen English; 2026-03-17
U.S. Strategic Defeat in Iran Will Reshape the World; Glenn Diesen interviews Lawrence Wilkerson; Glenn Diesen; 2026-03-17
During the last 6 minutes the two discuss Alfred Mackinder’s seminal work on geopolitics and how the current war ties into China’s BRI and the India/Russia/Iran International North-South Trade corridor.
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Sources
‘Not Our War’: US Allies Decline Trump’s Request To Send Ships To Open Strait of Hormuz; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2026-03-16
IRGC strikes central ‘Israel’, US base in Qatar; Al Mayadeen English; Al Mayadeen English; 2026-03-17
DAYS 15-16: WAR ON IRAN; Joe Lauria; Consortium News; 2026-03-16
Mojtaba’s message to Trump: ‘Bring it on!’; M. K. Bhadrakumar; Indian Punchline; 2026-03-16
Thinking About the Unthinkable; Michael Hudson; The Unz Review; 2026-03-09
Frustrated by Failure, an Unhinged Trump Begins to Tilt as Hormuz Standoff Heats Up; Simplicius; Simplicius’ Garden of Knowledge; 2026-03-16
War On Iran: - (Not-) Destroyed Missile Launchers - Seeking Ground War Allies; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2026-03-16
Trump is LOSING Control - Iran WIPES OUT Strategic Military Targets; Alkhorshid interviews Pepe Escobar & Larry C. Johnson; Dialogue Works; 2026-03-16
IRAN is JUST GETTING STARTED /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis; Daniel Davis / Deep Dive; Daniel Davis / Deep Dive; 2026-03-15
U.S. Attack on Kharg Island Will Destroy the Gulf States; Glenn Diesen interviews Larry Johnson; Glenn Diesen; 2026-03-15
The Strait That Controls the World Economy – And Iran Knows It; Alkhorshid interviews Co. Jacques Baud; Dialogue Works; 2026-03-16
Big blow to US dollar: Iran says oil must be sold in Chinese yuan, as it targets US corporations; Ben Norton; Geopolitical Economy Report; 2026-03-17
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Forgive my dyslexia, pick a Borassa Valley Shiraz instead!
https://youtu.be/Z0GFRcFm-aY?si=f87RnvmekurOjLoE