[Image: screen grab of the opening image from Pilger’s “The Coming War on China”. Looks like the Hiroshima observatory post the nuclear bombing on 1945-08-06.]
Publication date: 2021-10-06
Updated 2021-10-07: new source Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis (ret)
In 2016 legendary Australian reporter, video journalist and documentary film maker John Pilger released “The Coming War on China”. We have seen over the last week a horrifying escalation in tension between the USA and China over Taiwan.
A Summary of Recent Events
The USA has threatened to "upgrade" the Taiwanese trade delegation to the USA to a more diplomatic level, has been politically supporting the newly vociferous Taiwan independence movement, selling arms (750 million USD) to Taiwan, and landing combat aircraft on the island. One of the cores for the establishment of diplomatic relations back when Heinz Kissinger visited China in 1970 was that the USA accepted the "One China Policy" (OCP) which is to say that China's territorial integrity includes Hong Kong and Taiwan amongst other islands. This implies no USA support for political independence of these territories of China will be made.
The USA has two carrier groups, the Carl Vincent and Ronald Reagan, and the UK one, the HMS Elizabeth I, in the Philippines Sea and/or close to Taiwan, to add to the arms sales and political rhetoric. China is understandably alarmed by this combination of diplomatic, economic (arms sales) and military pressure against the established agreements of OCP.
On its National Day, China flew 38 military aircraft on drills into Taiwan's self-declared Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Note that the northwestern part of the ADIZ covers parts of mainland China. There is no basis for an ADIZ in international law; it is a request by the country declaring it for all flights to use identification systems. These are prudent things. Any skilled radar operator can note the speed, altitude and flight track of a radar source and assess whether it correlates with its declared identification and known published commercial flights; yep, it looks like MZ431 from Kuala Lumpur to Osaka. These identifications can be put in the "not of concern" basket alleviating any detailed defense scrutiny. Other non-identified or non-commercial flight tracks need to be forwarded for defense consideration.
A few days ago, 38 Chinese Airforce (People's Liberation Army, PLA) aircraft flew into the southwestern corner of Taiwan's ADIZ, then out, and then onwards into the south eastern sector, according to the Taiwan's defence organisation. This is certainly provocative, and as noted came on China's National Day. Its is clearly a message to the peoples of China and to Washington (and the current Taiwanese government). The next day, 39 military flights enter the SW corner of the ADIZ. Indeed, an editorial in Global Times, the English language publication owned by China Daily which is owned by China Communist Party (CCP) was extremely aggressive in its language using terms like "veteran" to describe the pilots involved in these drills.
Enter the USA State Department warning China against its destabilizing behaviour and whatever else.
The Chinese counterpart, its Foreign Ministry, issued a response that basically says, if you want to play chicken with us, go ahead, we will not back down, and if you want war, go right ahead. To say that Taiwanese independence is a "red line" for China is a galactic understatement.
They followed up on the USA diplomatic statement with 56 military flights a day later.
Here, to explain why, is a hyper-brief summary of the history of the main island of Taiwan and its relations with China, and the European powers (UK, France), the USA and Japan since the mid 19th century:
The main and surrounding islands of Taiwan have been a part of Imperial China for millennia. Trading outposts were established on Taiwan during the mid 19th century by European powers, which were generally resisted by the local population. Taiwan was lost to Japan at the settlement of the 1894/1895 first Sino-Japanese war. The local Chinese population resisted the Japanese occupation. In 1912 the Republic of China (R.O.C) was declared, ending dynastic Imperial China, but soon after and for several decades preceding WWII, China fought a civil war between between three main groups, a collection of Warlords, the Nationalist government led by the Kuomintang (KMT) under Chang Kiachek, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Mao Tse-tung. The KMT and CCP united to defeat the Warlords, but the civil war continued in the lead up to WWII, during which the Japanese again invaded China. The KMT and CCP again united, this time against the Japanese invasion, and at the end of the Pacific part of WWII the Japanese were forced into unconditional surrender, not just in Japan but also the territory of Taiwan. KMT representatives of the R.O.C received the Japanese surrender in Taiwan. Four years later, the CCP won the civil war and declared the People's Republic of China (PRC) while the KMT fled with many national assets in the form of gold, foreign exchange and cultural property to Taiwan and there became the R.O.C government in exile.
I have gone into this in a little more detail, previously.
Analysis
Back in the 2018 (or thereabouts) USA National Defense Strategy document it declared that terrorism was out, and "Great Power Competition" (GPC) in. Why? Well there are much greater profits to be made from big wars, and Russia and China are all but military allies and are investing in co-beneficial economic infrastructure development in all parts of Asia. They have names for the programs "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) by China and "Eurasian Economic Union" (EAEU) by Russia all sitting under the umbrella political organisation the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) formed by China and Russia and most of the central Asian "stans" in the summer of 2001. The SCO has since steadily grown and now encompasses both most of the landmass and population of Asia, not to mention its economies. This Mackingeresque “One World Island” unification including the world’s strongest economy and one of its leading military technologists is a direct threat to the USA’s declining hegemony.
What can de-rail this united economic, diplomatic and military collaboration? Pilger's prescience was always going to be triggered over Taiwan.
A Request
Please don't fall for this. This will be the classic military adventure that finally dooms the USA empire. If a war breaks out between NATO (or at least AUKUS) and China what happens? The largest two national trades, which support the world economy, between the USA and China will disintegrate and this will effect the entire global trade system. Sorry, we don't have any microwave ovens at the moment, maybe in three years?
The USA's military regularly hold "war games" between the USA and China over the South China Sea. Repeatedly the political overseer steps in and calls the games off as the game descends into nuclear exchange. In the most recent (and perhaps more before) the “China” team played a very clever game of disrupting the USA team's communications networks. It is EXTREMELY important to note that both sides of these war games teams are played by the USA military. It is their training, and they are to learn from it. The last "China Team" showed China itself exactly how to defeat "USA Team". Then you add Russia and its hypersonic missiles and the question becomes how many aircraft carries do you want to lose? That is why it goes nuclear.
Please don't fall for this, people of the world. The evil arms manufactures, to paraphrase the current Pope, are the only ones who win, and if it goes nuclear, they lose too, along with the fishes, birds, giraffes and tulips.
A Tragic Flaw
The Chinese efforts to create military installations on various reef islands in the South China Sea are grotesque and understandable. Grotesque because they are destroying local marine ecosystems which is pretty shitty for the fishes and corals, but also affects the livelihoods of the fishmongers. The Filipinos, the Malaysians, the Vietnamese are all effected and this unilateral action by the Chinese is internationally illegal. It is, however, also understandable.
The USA's "freedom of navigation" military maneuvers in these waters are classic PR. They are "control of shipping" not "freedom" of anything. They are the USA threatening the lifeblood of the Chinese export (and import) economy. Hey, China, what say we just prevent all shipping?!
So, lets call this an "action and reaction" third law of Newtonian mechanics in geopolitics.
To reinforce our background lets also rewind to the coups in Ukraine, first in 2004 then most disastrously in 2014. There was political unrest in Ukraine in 2014 and the president agreed to hold early elections. Meanwhile, foreign intelligence services are fomenting the unrest fueling legitimate local frustration, and Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland names the members of the future government in a leaked phone call. The opposition forces involve Nazis including the Azov battalion, not neo-Nazis, but the children of former Nazis who committed a local genocide against minorities during WWII. During the Maidan square protests we see a repeat of what started the proxy war in Syria; snipers shooting both protesters AND government security forces (police etc.). It is an obvious coup.
Before this red and black colored revolution kicked off there were discussions between the USA and Russia over Ukraine about its joining NATO. There is a famous comment from Sergei Lavrov to some USA representative "Niet means Niet" regarding NATO expansion into Ukraine. This all echoes the words following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the re-unification of Germany with the USA declaring that it would not expand NATO “one inch eastwards”.
The coup occurs, and Fucking-Nuland named people are placed in power and Russia instantly, non-violently annexes Crimea to protect is sole warm water port. The "non-violent" part is interesting. Russia just marches in and tells the Ukrainian military and political forces to piss off. You don't shoot at us, and we wont shoot at you; safe passage, and all that. The fact that there was no violence and the Ukrainian political/military just scampered reinforces the later plebiscite for Crimea to re-join Russia. Of course, the idiot Uko-Nazi allied new government declares that Ukrainian is the only national language (removing Russian) and the peoples of the Donbass see what's coming and respond to the removal of the elected government with a "well, fuck you too, we don't recognise your coup government either". So, the dominantly Russian speaking and Russian ancestry Donetsk and Lughansk regions declare themselves as independent “breakaway” republics. They are supported by Russia with special forces, logistics and advisers, but no Russian "invasion" occurs. (Much to the chagrin of the breakaway republics). Interestingly enough, at least one, I think it was Donetsk, ran a plebiscite asking if the breakaway region would like to join Russia. The overwhelming response was "does a bear shit in the woods!" and the Russian response was "sorry, cant do that now". Russia did, however, establish an accelerated dual citizenship program especially focused on people who fought for the breakaway republics. Thus, a significant proportion of these two regions are not just Russian ethnic and Russian speaking but Russian citizens.
What do we learn from all of this? Crimea, which was intra-soviet-union transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 was instantly recouped by Russia when the USA led coup in Ukraine threatened a NATO expansion, and just to throw enough sugar in the USA's petrol tank, Russia supported the breakaway republics which will prevent any NATO membership for Ukraine. Niet means niet!
The USA crossed a clearly communicated "niet line".
Its doing the same now with China, who will also not back down.
USA diplomatic, economic and military provocation over Taiwan is not inept, not stupid, it is myopic incompetence alchemically combined with end of empire hubris and avarice.
It is nice to see some wise words of caution from former US Army Col. Davis. Indeed, he lays out the potential outcomes in stark terms, as an army officer should.
Sources
The Coming War on China, John Pilger, his website, 2016
Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real: Global Times editorial, Editorial Staff, Global Times, 2021-10-04
Increasing People’s Republic of China Military Pressure Against Taiwan Undermines Regional Peace and Stability, Ned Price, USA State Department, 2021-10-03
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Remarks on Taiwan-related Statement Issued by US State Department Spokesperson, Hua Chunying, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 2021-10-04
China Warns US it Risks War over Taiwan, Deploys Record Number of Aircraft on Combat Drills, Alexander Mercouris, his youtube channel, 2021-10-05
The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs, Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis (ret), The Guardian (opinion), 2021-10-05
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