Alliance 2.0
China/Russia, the "stable and predictable" partners
[Image source; note the roughly area preserving projection (hi, cartographers!)]
Introduction
Alexander Mercouris has just published (see sources) a 50 minute monologue on the recent 5 year extension of the "Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation" between Russia and China based on an unofficial statement published at the Kremlin's website, in English. Mercouris' analysis of the document is interesting, and at times incisive. It is worth your time.
Having heard of this joint statement's existence, I instantly wanted to read it. A quick DuckDuckGo internet search for relevant terms provided numerous media outlets addressing it from western to eastern and independent media sources. NONE of the 10 odd I looked at provided a link to the document. What is it with modern media? Have they not learned about hyperlinks, or that these links can lead to authoritative publishing sources rather than back to related articles at their own site? (Avoids rant about declining ratings of legacy media)
The key search was:
joint statement russia china friendship site:ru
ie. gimme the Russian ministries, who I knew had published the statement, and piss off the rest of the planet. I found it instantly.
Here it is. Download it, and read it. It’s only 11 pages.
Background
The 11 page document is largely nothing new. It’s a restatement of what I have called a "quasi-alliance" and Mercouris describes as an alliance. In the end we're both right and wrong; what’s happening is a deep enmeshing of international ties between the two countries on every important matter, which is explored below.
I liken this document to the "teenage" stunt of blowing into your hand as your middle finger is slowly raised. Its China and Russia saying to the "West" that while you have been fighting silly wars and being distracted by X, Y and Z we have completed the foundation for a multi-polar world, and now we start building the edifice.
Alliance
When assessing the "nature" of the "alliance", as Mercouris mentions, this is the key statement:
While not being a military and political alliance, such as those formed during the Cold War, the Russian-Chinese relations exceed this form of interstate interaction.
Thus, this is not an "old" alliance but a "new" one which exhibits new properties. The key points are non-interference in internal politics and common consideration of each other's "core interests". This "core interests" is a variation of "national security" and equally fluffy. Of course there are "territorial integrity" and other commonalities for an alliance.
It is important to also view this document as not just a "we are together" document, but also a signal to the rest of the world as a "you cannot drive us apart" document. A sentence or two later comes:
Russia and China have completely resolved the border issue inherited from history and now the two countries have no mutual territorial claims.
People like to talk about the "thousands of miles" of common border, which is rubbish. The borders are via Mongolia and Kazakhstan, with a few direct borders (see the map). But, what they are saying is, dont even try to create cross border trouble, CIA/MI6. By which one can assume that they have deep influence of the Mongolian/Khazaki intelligence agencies.
The other point, is that if these border areas are stable, and the stability of Mongolia and Kazakhstan are ensured, then Russian and Chinese military forces can be focused elsewhere.
As for "deep enmeshing", which again Mercouris spends time on, here is the relevant text:
They [the Parties] will continue to improve the mechanism of regular meetings between the Heads of Governments, the work of the intergovernmental commissions at the level of deputy prime ministers, the various formats of interregional cooperation as key instruments for coordinating and expanding bilateral practical and humanitarian cooperation; develop contacts between the heads of the highest legislative bodies, exchanges and dialogue through interparliamentary commission, specialized committees and commissions, and deputy friendship groups; maintain a direct dialogue between the Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation and apparatus of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in order to coordinate and harmonize matters relating to contacts between the Heads of State and implementation of the agreements reached between them; cooperate actively, through consultations of the high representatives for strategic security and for public security, justice, and law enforcement, on global, regional and national security and on addressing traditional and emerging challenges and threats.
This is a very long way of saying we have inter-governmental relations EVERYWHERE. Which is another way of saying, dont bother, external powers, to even try to create disharmony amongst us. A rope's strength is not from an individual fibre or two, which you external power's may wish to sever, but from the thousands of stands in unison.
International "Law" Based Order
What is the foundation for this "new" alliance? It is laid out:
The Parties will remain committed to genuine multilateralism, will jointly defend the international system with the UN playing a central coordinating role and a world order based on international law, will stand for the principles of equality and mutual benefit, non- interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, peaceful settlement of disputes, rejection of the use of unilateral coercive measures that contravene the principles of international law and the UN Charter.
This is interesting. If one looks at the PDF, the sequence of words "with the UN playing a central coordinating role" is highlighted. It is the ONLY highlight in the entire document.
The document continues that the parties:
will resist attempts to replace universally agreed international legal instruments and mechanisms with non-inclusive formats
Military, Military Tech and Intelligence Cooperation
Apart from mutually beneficial exchange of military technologies, they commit to what amounts to interoperability:
The Parties intend to continue deepening interaction between the armed forces by maintaining a regular dialogue between the heads of defence agencies, increasing the number and scope of joint exercises, exchanges between military districts, services and branches of the armed forces, and improving the legal framework and cooperation in the field of military training.
Mercouris focuses on the "military districts" level of this comment, which is very significant. The focus on "legal framework ... training" is very interesting. This implies that national laws relating to military cooperation will be amended to facilitate this. Each nation has laws governing its military's involvement with others. They are saying that the legal framework for enhanced military cooperation is about to be established in both countries.
Trade
Section VI, in entirety, reads:
The Parties reaffirmed their commitment to implementing the agreements reached between the leaders of Russia and China to create the Greater Eurasian Partnership in a parallel and coordinated manner, as well as to developing the One Belt One Road initiative. The Parties noted the importance of the Eurasian Economic Union and One Belt One Road construction plans and their interrelation to ensure continuous and sustainable economic growth in the Eurasian Macro-Region, as well as the importance of enhancing regional and economic integration, maintaining peace in the region and developing the region itself.
This is a restatement of "we are building a trade block, get over it". The key term is "Eurasian Macro-Region". Ka-Boom, as they say.
Cultural Cooperation and Exchange
All of the above is fairly obvious. What I expect will concern Western political and/or military alliances is outlined in section VII; an extensive cultural exchange. See this clearly. It sets in motion a multi-generational cultural understanding, which thus attempts to resist external attempts to create inter-nation animosity.
The following is the leading part of the section:
To this end, the Parties have agreed:
to expand bilateral education, inter-university and academic ties,
encourage the learning and teaching of the Russian language in the People's Republic of China and the Chinese language in the Russian Federation;
to deepen interaction in cultural exchanges and enhance the role of cultural centres,
friendship societies and public organizations,
strengthen cooperation among artistic groups, theatres, museums and other cultural organizations of both countries,
develop dialogue on the preservation, restoration and use of historic and religious sites and historic and cultural monuments,
pay special attention to military and memorial sites, strengthen the legal framework for cooperation in this area;
to promote secure, comprehensive and planned recovery and harmonious development of tourist exchanges between the two countries and improve the quality of tourist services
Just look at this. They start with language exchange, of course. Then its "cultural exhange", "friendship societies", artistic exchange, "theatres, museums", "historic and religious sites", "cultural monuments", "military and memorial sites", "tourist exchanges". i.e complete linguistic and cultural exchange.
Conclusion
Since the initial signing of the "Friendship" treaty between Russia and China, their collaboration and trust has grown. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was established at the time of the "Friendship" in 2001, and their plans for a greater Eurasian economic block have been clearly on the cards ever since. Meanwhile, as they have looked back in history, and to recent events, they have developed the required "multi-spectrum" defences:
unified geo-political alliance
non-USD based and SWIFT-alternative financial exchanges
a massive holding of the world's gold
border dispute resolution
military technology exchange
non-domestic interference policy commitments
military and even more importantly intelligence exchange and cooperation
mutual awareness and sensitivity to each other's "core interests"
structures from the highest to very low for interaction across all important fronts
and now we see linguistic and cultural exchange.
Your move, US/NATO.
Afterword
Whilst there are plenty of "fluffs" and rather concerning statements of objectives in the joint statement. There is one that concerns me deeply:
The Parties underscore their unity on issues related to Internet governance, which include ensuring that all States have equal rights to participate in global-network governance, increasing their role in this process and preserving the sovereign right of States to regulate the national segment of the Internet. Russia and China emphasize the need to enhance the role of the International Telecommunication Union and strengthen the representation of the two countries in its governing bodies.
The "International Telecommunication Union" (ITU) has demonstrated no understanding about either how the internet works or is operated, because they come from the "telephone" era. Maybe they can redeem themselves, but I've seen their submissions to the Internet Engineering Task Force and it bodes not well. That this is the only international group to which Russia and China could lean to hint towards their desire for international governance and to reduce the influence on their populations by USA Tech Giants is quite sad.
The summary of the above is a slow dissolution of common standards for the Internet, which is why it became so successful, and all of that at the hands of the now censorial Tech Giants. Make your bed, and lie in it. Expect widespread use of national non-interoperable internet protocols within 10 years; the "Balkanisation" of the internet. Aaron Schwartz is rolling in his grave.
Sources
In Joint Statement Russia-China Agree Deeper Alliance, Balancing US And NATO, Alexander Mercouris