An Anglo-Euro-Russo Rift

Future proofing the upcoming investment in European arms manufacturing

Published: 2024-02-15

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Auf Wiedersehen, St. Petersburg

During the recent discussion between Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson with Danny Haiphong, Ritter stressed a key point which I wish to emphasize, for despite his efforts I felt it slipped by. It leads, with a little further inspection, when combined with other analyses, to an upcoming major challenge for Europe. The coming rupture between the US and Europe is being strained into rapid emergence due to the Zionists' insistence on their genocide and the Anglo-Euro Alliance's acquiescence to it.

The core of Ritter's observation was:

Russia has redefined itself. ... I don't know if anyone picked up on statements made earlier this year by Putin and Lavrov about Russia's new foreign policy. And its hinged on two things, the issue of Russian sovereignty and ... self reliance. ...

But the thing that came out of that conflict [the SMO] is that Russia has divorced itself from the West. They are done with the West. ... Russia will never again be in a position where they are reliant upon them [the West].

This statement does not come out of nowhere.

There has been, for decades, a discussion in Russia about turning towards the east and seeking security and integration there. As an interesting aside, Australia's former Prime Minister, Paul Keating, has provided similar geopolitical advice to his country after retirement. To paraphrase, he advised that Australia seek its security in Asia not from it.

From the end of the 1990's to the 2007 Munich Security Conference Vladimir Putin sought integration into Europe financially, culturally and via a security architecture. These efforts were rebuffed. Instead, NATO kept expanding eastward. Russia could not ignore a sequence of geopolitical developments: the 2014 coup in Ukraine, the deliberate undermining of the Minsk II Accords, the destruction of the Nordstream pipeline, 11 rounds of economic sanctions from the EU and various other economic measures from the USA, not to mention the continued funding and arming of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 'weaken Russia' [US Sec. of Defense, Lloyd Austin].

Meanwhile, China's BRI mega-project was announced in 2013. As mentioned in this newsletter, the two key organisations which are facilitating the continuation and expansion of the China-Russia partnership are BRICS, now BRICS10, and the SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organisation]. The SCO has grown from its 5 initial members of China, Russia and a few central Asian 'stans to now include: India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iran, and many more.

It is against this background that the Asian integrationists won the argument in Russia. The China-Russia special relationship was announced on 2022-02-04 as 'closer than an alliance'.

The first, obvious consequence of this is that Europe is denied not only access to Russia's cheap energy but also to many other natural resources which Europe needs (e.g Palladium, Neon). The consolidation of greater Asia under the SCO and its various economic sub-entities, like the Russian initiated EurAsian Economic Union (EAEU), are facilitating trade in Asia's resources within Asia, and preferentially to the BRICS10/SCO nations. This further isolates Europe.

As has been asserted here for years, the US neo-colonial empire is failing. This is obvious. The US is 34 Trillion in debt, the USD is slowly, continuously losing ground as the reserve currency, its military can't win wars against peasants and it can't even repress Venezuela, Cuba, or Nicaragua in its own Monrovian "backyard". But, the US is huge and is stuffed to the gills with resources. It will survive in some form.

The biggest problem is Europe's. It does not have sufficient resources to support its 500 million population in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. They need to trade for resources and with the loss of cheap energy and other raw materials from Asia, and an increasingly rebellious Africa beginning to be more successfully wooed by the BRICS10/SCO group, prices for those resources will rise. Given China's manufacturing success, this prices Europe out of most of the secondary production industries. Europe can't sell their primary produce, as they need it, and there's only so much 'Region Originale' Champagne and Balsamic Vinegar they can make.

The current, extreme tension in southwest Asia is threatening Europe's energy supply, and one of the key transits for its imports and exports.

Israel's genocide of Palestinians in Gaza is another layer atop this stack of trouble. The Europeans approved the idiocy of Israel. It was an opportunity to rid themselves of their Jews, well, most of them. This enabled Europe to ignore its own role in the genocide committed against the Jews and the Gypsies by Nazi Germany during WWII. The current genocide re-raises both issues for Europe; their part in the 'holocaust' and their part in the obviously immoral creation of Israel and the 70+ years of oppression and disenfranchisement of Palestinians.

The business communities of Europe understand the problems of import/export, supply and production, and can see that they need to maintain ties with both Asia, far and near, and with North and South America. The problem they face is similar to that faced by the citizenry of the US. Their politicians are members of or are controlled by an outdated ideology which is still behaving like it is fighting the Cold War. In practice, they are funding dominantly US-based arms manufacturers and in theory securing resources and markets for loyal mostly US-based corporations.

Unfortunately for these historically blind leaders, the world has changed. The old game doesn't work so well now that the BRICS10/SCO block are uniting in rejection of the Anglo-European NATO block's playbook.

MSC Redux

Ahead of the upcoming Munich Security Conference we have heard from both UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and Germany's highest ranking soldier General Carsten Breuer that they are expecting to be fighting a war with Russia (or China/Iran) in 5 years. This is obviously pre-event messaging, and is also blatantly stupid. They are already fighting a war with Russia.

What they are saying is that they intend to have another war after they've prepared themselves for it. This foreshadows a change in industrial investment for the EU block to the only profitable tertiary industry which will remain, weapons production. Unless this emphasis is taken as a component of a greater agenda, then it will lead to disaster.

The escape from this is to take Trump at his word. Establish these arms industries, withdraw from NATO, and create an independent European defense alliance which prohibits expeditionary forces unless under a UN mandate. There is more to be done, which we'll come to.

This step, of the reconstitution of a European defense and security architecture is fundamental and potentially dangerous. Many a geopolitical analyst has been proclaiming the not too distant demise of NATO, for obvious reason. It's European part is emaciated, with the exception of Poland. Funnily enough, its defeat is again at the hands of Russia. Will they ever learn?

The danger is the re-emergence of the divisions in national character which exist across Europe. Despite all of its failings the EEC (European Economic Community) and then EU have prevented large scale war in Europe. The exceptions are the 1990's conflicts in Serbia and the now sub-divided Yugoslavia. If this unity against internal division can be preserved as Europe reconsiders its defence, there is future in which Europe can reestablish itself, morally and financially.

The problem is the same as that which exists in NATO's HQ, Washington, that the heads of the military are political and aligned with the arms manufacturing industries, securing foreign political influence for industrial resources. A fundamental rethink is required, to return Defence forces to defence. This opportunity can be created for Europe by jettisoning US command, for while that exists the current stupidity, as demonstrated by Project Ukraine, will continue. The US does not need to pick up the pieces of a destroyed of Ukraine, Europe does.

Parallel to this recreation of a European defence and investment in defense industries, through which some injection into the European economy can be made, serious investments are required in other tertiary industries to replace the ones which are fleeing to the US from Germany and elsewhere.

Yanis Varoufakis has spoken about this before. There is one glaring opportunity staring Europe in the face; Renewable Energy. There are others too, like water purification, land regeneration, waste re-use/recycling/the circular economy. The ravages of a changing climate are inbound and the world is going to need to mitigate them. There are other core industries, like shipping and domestic car and aeroplane manufacturing to maintain too.

Europe still possess excellent Universities which are not yet subject to the group think and economic control exercised on their US equivalents. Europe can actually innovate itself out of this impending disaster with its capital, research and industrial sectors.

The problem is to coordinate this, and that requires the replacement of the current ideological technocrats who control the EU with a new batch of leaders who will emancipate Europe from its Yankee thrall and invest in their own people. This is easy to say, and may be rather hard to achieve. Some fundamental changes are required in how the EU operates. See Varoufakis for reforms of the European Central Bank. The ECB just does not work; its architecture limits its effectiveness. It makes no sense to have a common interest rate for economies as diverse as Germany and Greece. Also, the EU's political leadership needs to be answerable to the voters, not to the MEPs who are largely bought by the lobbyists. There are honorable exceptions including the brilliant Irish MEPs, Daly and Wallace.

These types of issues are on the cards in Europe. A group which has been attempting to bring them to the attention of Europe's citizenry is the pan-European movement/party DiEM25. 2025 is just around the corner, and they may well be able to assist in these difficult transitions.

Arrivederci, Москва

Russia has left its European roots and is not coming back anytime soon. The current hegemon's failing will continue. The counter-block, the BRICS10/SCO group will continue to grow.

Europe needs to decide where it wishes to go and plan carefully. Else it will become economically isolated and moribund while also investing in arms.

History informs us to where this leads.

NB: Chas Freeman has a collection of related and very interesting opinions which he expressed with Prof. Deisen and Mercouris. See sources.

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Sources

Pentagon chief’s Russia remarks show shift in US’s declared aims in Ukraine, Julian Borger, The Guardian, 2022-04-25

British defense chief warns war possible within 5 years with rivals China, Russia, Iran: 'Inflection point', Peter Aiken, Fox/Yahoo, 2024-01-24

Top German general: 'We must be ready for war (with Russia) in 5 years', Nate Ostiller, Yahoo!/The Kyiv Independent news desk, 2024-02-10

Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development, Kremlin, 2022-02-04

The China-Russia Axis Takes Shape, Bonny Lin, Foreign Policy, 2023-09-11

Europe’s 15-Year Slump, Yanis Varoufakis, Naked Capitalism, 2023-12-16

Fishing for Narratives, YesXorNo, 2023-04-10

SCOTT RITTER JOINS ON PUTIN DESTROYING NATO ON TUCKER AND UKRAINE'S NIGHTMARE REALITY, Haiphong interviews Ritter and Johnson, Danny Haiphong, 2024-02-12

Cracks in the NATO Narratives and NATO Unity - Chas Freeman, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen, The Duran, 2024-02-14

Culture

ABBA - Super Trouper (Official Lyric Video), ABBA (the title track from their 1980 album), uploaded 2023-01-20

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