Atomics, Pipelines, a Bridge and OPEC+: Diplomatic Deficits
Diplomatic Deficits
[Image: CCTV frame just before the truck explodes on the Kerch bridge.]
[Image: count the vehicles above, and those visible below. Two second delay. What exploded? Its pretty obvious, really. There is also the “fuse” timing. It had to be quick to impact the train.]
Publication date: 2022-10-11
Update same day: added the Culture section and the Scott Horton interview with Dave DeCamp, and Patrick Lancaster’s interviews with civilians in Crimea.
Update 2022-10-12: added Military Summary Channel (Duma’s) report for the 11th detailing the Russian attacks on areas of Ukraine beyond the “contact line”. Bhadrakumar’s article on the OPEC+ decision and its geopolitical implications have been added.
Note: Dear Readers, I see that you are examining linked sources of evidence and informed comment. Long may it continue. Actually, you have blown up Substack’s reference counter. It gets a bit confused after about 5 references. 5 more makes it lose its marbles. You have pushed beyond 10 independent references and its very confused :)
Article
The last two weeks have revealed a series of extremely dangerous escalations between the belligerents of the war in Ukraine. Other geopolitical tensions have also risen.
Nuclear Threat One
The existing western narrative is that Russia has been shelling the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, or they take the passive approach “each side is blaming the other”. This, of course, makes no sense at all. Russian forces captured the plant early in the invasion to ensure that a massive nuclear event did not occur, and possibly to maintain energy supplies on the grids to which it is connected. Russian nuclear power experts took over leading positions, the Russian military provide security, and the local workforce was retained to maintain the plant. There is only one party with means, motive and opportunity to continue to attack it.
On the exact morning of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) visit to the site, a cross-river commando style raid was rebuffed by the defensive forces. Since the IAEA visit, shelling has continued.
The new development is that the power to maintain the site, even though all six reactors are shutdown, has been lost. The backup diesel generators are all that remains to maintain safe temperatures for the nuclear fuel. Otherwise you get a nuclear meltdown causing an environmental disaster.
Infrastructure Attack One
On September 27th three explosive attacks at separate locations occurred on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream II pipelines from Russia to Germany . The damaged pipes leaked massive amounts of gas (methane) stored in the pipes.
Having read no real analysis of the challenge of such an operation, I called a friend who is experienced diver and asked him. Provided an approximate depth of 70m, he looked up his dive profile calculator. With a rebreather and some device I forget you get 30 minutes for the dive. Easy. For the 4.1 cm steel pipe wall thickness and the 11 cm steel reinforced sheath you need serious explosives like C4 shaped charges or perhaps better. Of course the whole thing is trivial is you have a submersible and someone who knows how to handle explosives and has basic dive training. So, you need well trained divers provided with advanced explosives who know how to use them, perhaps with an optional submersible.
USA President Biden had stated before the Russian "Special Military Operation" that if Russia invaded Ukraine “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2". Asked how, given that it is an EU/German/Russian venture Biden replied "I promise you, we will be able to do that." At the same time Victoria, "Fuck the EU", coup facilitator Nuland (VFEUCFN) made a similar statement. Following the attacks, USA Secretary of State Blinken noted that the event provided excellent opportunities.
VFEUCFN’s husband thanked the USA with an image of the leaking gas.
Whoops. That was deleted so quickly that it only had around 24 thousand re/quote tweets ;)
The three attacks on the pipelines occurred in international waters to northeast and southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. During the Cold War, the Baltic was lined with sensors to detect any sneaky Soviet submarines. Bornholm, being central to the southern Baltic, is an ideal location to have sensors galore. Denmark is a part of NATO, and thus NATO have a very good idea of what happened. USA military ships and helicopters were in the area preceding the "sabotage". Is this a challenging whodunnit? How should the EU respond?
Each of the two pipeline systems Nord Stream and Nord Stream II have two lines. Nord Stream II's line "B" remains undamaged. Were the attackers rushed, or was this the plan?
[Image: from The Cradle via Ron Unz’s article at The Unz Review.]
Infrastructure Attack Two
A truck loaded with explosives seems the likely cause of an explosion on the Kerch Bridge. The explosion was timed to coincide with the passing of a fuel train on the railway parallel to the two dual carriage roads. This is a non-trivial “passing” to create.
The train was set ablaze in many parts. Two sections of one of the two road dual carrages lost connections with their pylons falling mostly into the waters below.
The railway line was working again in a few hour hours, as was the remaining dual carriage way. As Andrei Martyanov notes, its not too hard to damage a small section of a 17 Km long bridge. Destroying it all is an entirely different matter.
The Ukrainian intelligence service, SBU, claimed responsibility and then said “maybe not”. Russian intelligence and the FSB have already apparently identified the truck and its multi-national journey to the bridge, as reported by Pepe Escobar.
Russian Federation President Putin has declared the attack an act of terrorism. A new single General, Sergei Surovikin, a Field Marshall in effect, is to take over the combined operations in Ukraine. Russia, in retaliation, under this new military leader has "taken its gloves off". Retaliation is underway. This is a tragedy for many innocent Ukrainians, and illustrates why diplomatic negotiations to develop a ceasefire and a settlement are even more desperately needed now.
Conventional arms seem to be Russia's choice, not including cluster munitions as used by Ukraine to litter cities and fields in Donbas with horrific mini-mines that will blow your leg off. I have no idea how many "cruise missiles" Russia has used. Whatever the case, civilians will die, which is a permenant tragedy of war.
Nuclear Threat Two
On October 6th Ukrainian President Zelensky, after demanding immediate fast tracked entry into NATO, called for NATO to issue preemptive "nuclear strikes" against Russia. Ukrainian officials later claimed a "lost in translation error". This is hardly likely to fly given that the video recording is all over the Internet.
Nuclear Armageddon
USA President Biden alarmed many while addressing a meeting of Democratic party donors. He dropped a clanger using the term "Armageddon" . He declared that Putin "is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming,".
To reassure readers, Putin has never, to my knowledge, used the term "tactical nuclear weapons". This is term enjoyed by the USA military. He has also not mentioned any other type of nuclear weapons, or any of the other nasty weapons attributed. His most recent relevant comment was that Russia would use any of the means at her disposal if she was threatened. This can be seen as equivalent to the USA State Department or the White house saying things like "All options are on the table".
As in many previous statements by Biden, his friendly staff were soon on hand to calm everyone's nerves and correct the "meaning" of Biden's words.
Losing of a Friend
Following Biden's recent “fist bump” with Mohammad bin Salman, Biden's requests for increased oil production from Saudi Arabia was gently refused. OPEC+, the original oil producing nations body with Russia added, has caused quite a stir in Washington D.C. To add insult to Saudi injury, OPEC+ just decided to reduce total daily production.
Alarming terms like "massive" have been used in western media. The actual reduction will be 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels per day down from 98. So, a 1.2% "massive" decrease. Nonetheless, "American" politicians have something to crow about and are all in tizz.
The real message here is at the geopolitical level. Saudi Arabia can see the winds of change and is hedging her bets to maintain relations with the growing power of non-west aligned groups like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation).
OPEC+ has denied Biden a reduction in oil prices during the lead up to the all too soon mid-terms. What does the USA think will happen if it sanctions Russia, Venezuela and Iran from the global oil market? Prices rise. Other customers are sought. The greater issue is a growing de-dollarization of international trade.
Impacts
The two infrastructure attacks must have been approved the USA. The only reason for the “we don’t know” which will eventually be issued by the investigation under way is that it was NATO, and that means the USA approved it. The bridge attack was by Ukraine which was enabled by the USA informing them recently that they are free to attack Crimea.
Zelensky was speaking of re-arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons at the Munich Security Conference which preceded the current conflict. No one took him aside and informed him to put a sock in it. If NATO agreed, which they will not, to his latest bravado we all get World War III and Biden's Armageddon.
What the world needs now is careful diplomacy. Saudi Arabia recently quietly negotiated a prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey brokered a close to complete ending to the conflict earlier in the year. This was scuttled by USA/UK via their messenger Boris Johnson.
Both India and China have an excellent diplomatic service, but the USA seems on a war path with China using Taiwan as a pretext, tearing up the One China half century policy. Perhaps India could step forward and offer her services as another attempt at mediation. Hungary may be another option. We need a host of nations to create back-channels to establish a mediated dialogue between the USA and Russia.
Tensions are rising far too rapidly.
Sources
Written sources are keyed into the actions of the sub-headings above, with a final “General” category followed by video sources. All references before “General” are already linked in the article above. They are provided below for their metadata at a glance.
Zaporizhzhia
Zaporizhzhia plant down to diesel generators as shelling cuts power essential for cooling, Reuters, 2022-10-08
Pipes
The War On Germany Just Entered Its Hot Phase, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-27
Whodunnit? - Facts Related to The Sabotage Attack On The Nord Stream Pipelines, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-28
Can Europe Afford To Turn a Blind Eye to Evidence of a US Role in Pipeline Blasts?, Jonathan Cook, Antiwar, 2022-10-07
American Pravda: Of Pipelines and Plagues, Ron Unz, Unz Review, 2022-10-03
Bridge
Terror on Crimea Bridge Forces Russia to Unleash Shock’n Awe, Pepe Escobar, Unz Review, 2022-10-10
Putin Calls Crimea Bridge Blast a Terrorist Attack Carried Out by Ukraine, Dave deCamp, Antiwar, 2022-10-09
On The Issue Of The Linear Targets, Andrei Martyanov, his newsletter, 2022-10-08
Pre-emptive Strikes
Zelensky Calls for NATO to Launch Preemptive Strike on Russia, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-10-06
Armageddon
Biden: Nuclear ‘Armageddon’ Risk Highest Since Cuban Missile Crisis, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-10-06
White House Says Biden’s ‘Armageddon’ Comment Not Based on New Intelligence, Kyle Anzalone, Antiwar, 2022-10-07
OPEC+
Dems propose full break from Saudi Arabia, UAE after OPEC’s ‘hostile act’, Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, Responsible Statecraft, 2022-10-06
OPEC’s Body Blow to Biden, M.K. Bhadrakumar, People’s Dispatch, 2022-10-10
General
Patrick Lawrence: Sins of Silence, Patrick Lawrence, ScheerPost, 2022-10-08
10/10/22 Dave DeCamp on Today’s Russian Missile Barrage, Scott Horton interviews Dave DeCamp, Scott’s website, 2022-10-10
.. Direct MP3: download
Jeffrey Sachs: end Ukraine proxy war or face "armageddon", The Grayzone interview Jeffrey Sachs, The Grayzone, 2022-10-09
Russia sends strong message, will they listen?, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Chrisoforou, The Duran, 2022-10-10
Note: the most worrying comment made above is a potential use of Belarus as territory and/or military in the conflict. This creates a third front, and involves another nation. This is very scarey.
Crimea Bridge Attack, Zelensky Calls for Nuclear Strike, and More, Richard Medhurst, his zootube channel, 2022-10-09
What Crimean Residents Think Of The Attack on the Bridge, Patrick Lancaster, his youtube channel, 2022-10-10
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 11.10.2022, Dima, Military Summary Channel, 2022-10-11
Culture
Janis Joplin - Summertime, Trip Hop Universe, uploaded 2013-09-27
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