Automatic Nuclear War

A French led, NATO and European path to oblivion

Published: 2024-03-27

Updated 2024-04-01: Two new sources added, with some notes. See Update Sources.

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The Road

Within 3 months of the installation, by the US, of a compliant, unelected government in Ukraine, 3 of its oblasts (regions) had either voted to join Russia (Crimea) or declared their independence (Lugansk and Donetsk), all with the overwhelming support of their local population.

An "Anti-terror" campaign, the public name for the civil war, was declared by Ukraine in the middle of this period. None of this would have happened had the US not run its coup and installed its Nuland-chosen unelected government.

All of this occurred while the US was running an insurgency in Syria using religious fundamentalists to overthrow elected President al Assad.

The UN Security Council settled, unanimously, on a process to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, the Minsk II accords. The Ukrainian government refused to participate, by refusing to acknowledge the regional leaders in Lugansk and Donetsk. The US failed to require Ukrainian engagement. The custodians of the implementation of the peace process were France and Germany. They also completely failed, deliberately we later learned, to achieve the UN mandated peace process.

Now, 10 years later, a war has been waging in Europe for two years. France's current posture, under the Presidency of Emmanuel Macron, is to throw European, NATO member state soldiers into the war at the point at which Russia is completely dominant.

The potential, nuclear-war level folly of this is clearly communicated in the most recent Memorandum to the President by Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. This is the first VIPS memorandum signed by Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.). On the most recent episode of Judging Freedom (see sources), another signatory, Scott Ritter presented the core thesis which the memorandum presents.

The key adjective Ritter used to convey the memo’s horrific insight is "automatic". The conveyor belt to nuclear war runs from 2 000 French troops, possibly allied with a tiny Baltic states’ contingent, entering the war zone of Ukraine. When, as is likely, Russia "degrades" them in an instant, France would call for a NATO article 5 response.

NATO member states, according to article 5, choose their response. If this includes attacks on tactical targets in Russia (recall, the 5 lost oblasts from Ukraine are now Russia, in Russia's eyes), then Russia is within its rights to respond by attacking the tactical targets of these NATO states in those NATO states. These will likely include "decision making" centers.

If NATO then responds by attacking strategic Russian sites, then Russia's nuclear doctrine kicks in. (‘Strategic’ means "nuclear" in arms control language.) Russia collocates at least some of its tactical and strategic assets. Thus, the lines between one and the other are blurred, and the opportunities for error are extremely high. Once that happens, Russia may respond with nuclear attacks on NATO's nuclear facilities in Europe.

This leaves the US in the position of having to choose to risk itself, and the world, in a nuclear cataclysm.

… nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy--or of a collective death-wish for the world.

John F. Kennedy, 1963

To Peace

Instead of the continuous arms funding, sabre rattling, insane "playing chicken" machismo, Europe and the US could actually trying something as simple as peace.

Serious academics and informed military professionals, worldwide (Petro, Sawka, Diesen, Macgregor …), have been watching this nightmarish war and escalation. They understand the underlying racial/ethnic tensions in Ukraine which are the root of the initial civil war. They also understand the current military situation, and the role of the arms industries in the US and European economies, including the limitations of their capabilities. They can also see the impending collapse of the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) due to its lack of recruitment, equipment and failing morale, none of which are challenges which Russia faces.

An impending military defeat for Ukraine and by extension the US and NATO, is in imminent view.

Peace is the only solution to this problem. Indeed, it will be the solution. The only question is how many more people must die and funds change hands before a settlement is reached.

Here is a sketch of a framework for a settlement, a return to peace in Europe and an avoidance of nuclear armageddon.

• Based on the 2014 borders of Ukraine and its regions (oblasts), all of 5 oblasts which have voted to join Russia, are Russian.

• Using the principles expressed in the Minsk II accords, the regions of Kharkiv, Mikolaiev and Odessa are to be granted the autonomy which was then proposed for Lugansk and Donetsk.

• Ukraine shall write into its constitution that it is a neutral country that it prohibits itself from joining any military alliance. In place of this, a collection of nations shall, minimally include Russia and the US and two other balancing powers (for example, China and Turkey), provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

• The resolution of the conflict in Ukraine shall be an element of a greater process to reach a new security architecture for Europe.

I am not a diplomat, just a common man. Would not the above, especially if it was placed on the table by the US and the major economic and military NATO nations of Europe, take the attention of Russia? Put another way, if Russia rejected to discuss peace based on the above, it would imply that its leadership have been lying to its own population. Necessity has required Russia’s population to be attentive to world affairs.

Via Diplomacy and Mediation

The success of any settlement is dependent upon the professionalism and impartiality of a mediating party. One needs be identified. I can think of none better than India. It has an excellent, professional diplomatic service and has decades of experience sitting between the current belligerents of NATO and Russia. This recommendation is not based India’s current political leadership, but instead on the reputation of its diplomatic service.

And Lessons in European History

The main, stated, political purpose of the EU is to secure peace in Europe. Its recent and current leadership have utterly failed. The stage is set for the people of Europe to humiliate the current leadership by refusing to participate in the folly of this war. Millions of citizens could be marching on the streets, disrupting Europe's economies and rejecting its psychotic, bloodthirsty leadership. The imminent political implosion in Ukraine can rapidly expand to a plurality of Europe if the current French course is pursued.

The US and NATO leadership's attempts to win geopolitical games with Russia have resulted in a lesson of history being laid down once again. Do not provoke Russia into war, by whatever clever or stupid mechanism.

The political boundaries of Europe are redrawn, every, single time.

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“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.”

Otto von Bismark, 100 years before Kennedy’s speech, 1863.

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Update Sources

🎧 VIPS MEMO: The French Road to Nuclear War (a reading), YesXorno, 2024-03-31

NATO wouldn't invoke Article 5 over strike on French troops in Ukraine — agency, TASS, 2024-03-29

"If military units from a NATO member state participate in collective self-defense in the conflict on Ukraine’s side based on Article 51 of the UN Charter and come under attack by the other party during military operations, this is not a justification to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter," the agency quoted an expert report, which assesses the possible consequences of France’s plans to send troops to Ukraine. The report has not been published yet.

• This might be pre-positioning for the upcoming NATO 75th anniversary gathering this week. Who knows?

3/28/24 Matthew Hoh on his Speech to the UN Security Council, Horton interviews Hoh, The Scott Horton Show, 2024-03-30

• MP3

Sources

The French Road to Nuclear War, VIPS MEMO, Consortium News, 2024-03-25

Commencement Address at American University, Washington, D.C., June 10, 1963, President John F. Kennedy, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum

Oxford Essential Quotations (4 ed.), Otto von Bismark, Oxford Reference

Russia. Is. At. War., YesXorNo, 2024-03-23

[US] NATO v Russia: 2014 - 2024, YesXorNo, 2024-03-09

The Mechanics of Politics by Other Means, From the 50's to the 20's : A study in USA foreign political mechanics [updated], YesXorNo, 2021-09-07

Ukraine/DPR+LPR: Death of the Minsk Agreements and the Onset of Many a Speech, YesXorNo, 2022-02-22

Scott Ritter: On the Brink of Nuclear War, Napolitan interviews Ritter, Judging Freedom, 2024-03-26

Nuland-Pyatt leaked phone conversation _COMPLETE with SUBTITLES”, Diddley Squat, youtube channel, uploaded 2014-04

Culture

INXS - Dancing on the Jetty, from their 1984 album "The Swing", uploaded 2012-12-18

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