Bakhmut / Artyomovsk
Challenger 2's and Leopard II's don't work in an urban space
Published 2023-03-30
Bakhmut
The battle around Bakhmut (Artyomovsk in Russian) is of a smaller scale than in Mariupol months ago. Russia is this time not using Chechen fighters as their front-line troops, but those of the Wagner group. The motives are the same. You take the bullets, we provide all the logistics. Succeed!
They are close.
Colonel Macgregor repeatedly makes a very important point. On the open battlefield on the steppes space matters not, movable force is the advantage. This changes in cities. The high buildings provide a defending force with advantage. This explains the Russian General Staff's use of non-Russian Army military forces in these dangerous areas. It minimizes the official figures needed to be published of the deaths from their military. Maintaining Russian political support matters.
This is a long game, and Russia knows it. The capture of Mariupol secured the Crimea to Donetsk logistics corridor. The immanent capture of Bakhmut is not equivalent in strategic importance, but is very significant towards the political objective of “liberating” all of Donetsk. Bakhmut is literally the gateway to the rest of Donetsk. Given that Lugansk, the other half of Donbas, is already liberated this upcoming victory creates the path to returning control of all of Donbas to its residents.
Russia: Yeah, thanks, we'll have the salt mines and whatever hardware you've got down there. Oh, and we just broke the center of your defence lines. Hey, NATO we’ve got open space to Kramatorsk. Your move.
After Bakhmut falls, expect a slow down, excepting Ardiivka. Bakhmut must be captured, occupied, supplied and repaired. This will take months. First, the military need to rid themselves of artillery fire from the higher ground to the west. With this clearance, Russia can pause while it takes Ardiivka and garrisons and fortifies both towns during an arriving summer. These two victories will protect Donetsk City, and with the high ground give Russia even more artillery dominance.
Sources
Wagner Storms The Town Hall of Bakhmut. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.03.29, Dima, Military Summary, 2023-03-29