BRI meets the Mediterranean
Caesar sanctions leave nobody else but China to help Syria; There be consequences
Uncle Shmuel (The Saker's term for the USA) has got itself into a bit of a bind in Syria/Iraq. Pieces are moving on the board and we are looking at the end-game for Syria.
A Hyper-Brief Summary of the Syrian Proxy-War (just skip this if you know)
Following thoroughly legitimate protests by some Syrian groups against the nepotism and corruption, and I expect political repression, of the Syrian government under son-of-former president, President Assad, we saw what we would later see in Maidan; snipers shooting at both the police and the protesters.
Meanwhile, the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Israel all decide that a civil war would be lots of fun and so facilitated its creation with billions of dollars, weapons supplies, military training, media support (Hi, White Helmets), and more. The US Defense Intelligence Agency predicted the rise of ISIS which did come and as Secretary of State Kerry watched gleefully their advance on Damascus to use them as leverage to get rid of Assad, Syria called for help from Russia in 2015.
Step by step, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) with support from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah (Syria and Iran have a mutual defence treaty) defeated the terrorist insurgents and at the end of each victory the insurgents were given a choice. Go through the "reconciliation process" which meant being imprisoned or joining the SAA (that is a gross simplification, but sort sums it up) or being bused to Idlib.
Meanwhile, Uncle Shmuel was occupying the north east where Syria's oil and wheat belt lie, denying Syria access to those resource and letting the Kurds or whoever else sell the oil on the black market via Turkey. Indeed, Shmuel's oil companies were helping to extract said oil. Shmuel also held a crucial base at Al Tanf. Controlling the northern and southern border points greatly limited Iran or Iraq's ability to support Syria
During the entire process, regular accusations of Syria's use of chemical weapons were made. They were always used against civilians and never the insurgents, and all signs point to these chemical weapons attacks being either performed by the insurgents or staged by them. Little Obama was really trying not to get non-covert military involved in the whole thing and Putin relayed that all of Syria's chemical weapons could be destroyed, which they were, in 2013, aboard a US ship equipped for the purpose.
Current Situation
Syria lacks control of 3 areas (not including the Golan Heights stolen from them by Israel in the 1967 6 day war): the north east (oil and wheat), Al Tanf (major border crossing with Iraq and Jordan) and the Idlib province which is now a concentration of partially aligned and partially bickering crazy religious terrorist extremists. The Syrian government has maintained power and defeated these proxy forces with support, but the country is in ruins and the economic sanctions imposed by the US with support from its allies are furthering the suffering of the Syrian people.
How to deal with these 3 problems? Well, the first step is to regain the oil and wheat. In this regard, the volunteer army called for by the leading Shia cleric in Iraq to defend Baghdad against ISIS, and led by the two military leaders assassinated by then USA President Trump a year and a half ago, did defeat ISIS and have since been integrated into Iraq's military. The Iraqi parliament, you know "democracy, and all that" revoked permission for ANY foreign fighters to be on its soil and told the USA to piss off. They, of course, did not. The USA claims that Popular Mobilization Forces (or Units) (PMF/PMU) had been performing drone attacks on US positions in NE Syria/NW Iraq from one side of the border of the other. The first retaliation against this came in February 2021, and then next a few weeks ago in June 2021. (Note, these sources are to prove the dates, not for reading). These US Forces (see sources) in NE Syria need to be supplied by air or over land from Iraq. (The "deconfliction zone" between Turkey and Syria makes supply from Turkey difficult.) Air routes can only come via Iraq or Turkey, and the Iraqi's don't want this. So, you can see where this is going.
Idlib is a far more complex problem. Its ruled by a bunch of fanatics and any military incursion will create a bloodbath, which creates more problems than it solves. Scott Ritter’s analysis is always worth reading. Note the recent security council meeting and the extension of the aid corridor.
A Recent Event
It was once again Alexander Mercouris that alerted me (see sources) to the event, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Damascus and spoke with Syrian President Al Assad. The meeting is reported on by SANA (Syria's official news outlet) and Global Times (China's unofficial English news outlet), and both Mercouris and I provide links. I looked for other reports. There are almost none. The most reputable, and I use that term in the loosest possible sense, is from AP's television news. It is atrocious.
Usual pleasantries are exchanged: Assad; congrats on the 100th anniversary of the CCP, Wang; well done defeating the terrorists and your re-election shows you have the trust and support of your people. Et cetera. Then some platitudes, promises, call it what you will, about mutual support, territorial integrity and national sovereignty. Et cetera.
Now to the meat of it. China would like to assist Syria in its reconstruction and defending itself in the ongoing challenge of combating terrorism, and if you'd like to join the BRI, the door is open.
This is why the event is not reported. I do not know of Iraq's position on the BRI, but I expect that Iran's influence will have them join. If that happens, you end up with the BRI linking to the eastern Mediterranean, via a land bridge, from China through the 'stans and Iran, Iraq and then Syria. The other big news is the "helping with terrorism" which implies a military and/or intelligence role. I would expect it to be modest, but useful. Many of the terrorists were from Xinjiang, and China knows about them and their networks (as would Russia).
Inferences
What can we derive from this meeting? That the Syrian proxy-war is coming to a close? China would not be building infrastructure that is about to be destroyed. They believe that in the near future, things will stabilize. I think we all expect Idlib to be the long term annoyance, but as Mercouris observes, statements made by China are a warning to Turkey.
I expect Al Tanf to be the next target of recovery, but that is difficult, for it is easily resupplied via Jordan. I expect pressure via regional collective bodies like the Arab League (or whatever). In any case, the USA's occupation there is just that, and totally illegal.
Wild Speculation
The BRI looks like a transport infrastructure program, and it is, but it is also more. It is also a telecommunications infrastructure program. This, of course, will give the China-Russia alliance greater access to the telecommunications networks of the countries that choose to integrate to that telecommunications infrastructure. I expect that they will be offered very sweet deals for this.
Going back a few years and the "China leads in 5G" brouhaha, there were very credible reports that some of their telco equipment was very poorly secured, using old cipher suites and very old software implementations. I am beginning to wonder if these are deliberate targets, trip wire's if you will.
In any case, it is important to view the BRI as not only a trade network. It is obviously a political influence network. It is also a communications network which will be fought over by the coming power structures.
Knowledge is power, and all that.
Let us not forget that children, sisters, brothers, and communities are the playthings of these power battles. (See sources; the new front lines).
Sources
Biden orders airstrikes in Syria, retaliating against Iran-backed militias, NBC News 2021-02-26
US launches air strikes against Iran-backed militia in Iraq and Syria, after drone attacks, ABC (Australia) 2021-06-28
US Forces, Midnight Oil
Russia’s About-Face on Syria’s Idlib is the Opening Gambit of A Larger Chess Game, Scott Ritter, RT Op-Ed
China FM Wang Visits Damascus, Invites Syria Into BRI, Warns Turkey, Alexander Mercouris
President al-Assad receives Chinese Foreign Minister…New stage for boosting bilateral relations, SANA
Syria unconditionally supports China on Taiwan, Xinjiang, HK issues, Assad tells visiting FM Wang Yi, Global Times
Chinese FM Wang Yi Meets Syrian President Assad, Associated Press Television News
U.S. Announces Retreat From Iraq (And Syria)?, MoonOfAlabama
The new frontlines with NATO terrorist groups in Idlib, Syria, Vanessa Beeley’s Youtube Channel