CFR as Yoda: "A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make"
Vugledar, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk and Kursk
Published: 2024-09-03
Updated 2024-09-04: further details on developments on all major points of contact have been added. Later, added Larry Johnson source.
[All images below are created from frames in the video by Dima included in Sources.]
The CFR’s Foreign Affairs
Bernard from Moon of Alabama highlighted the end of paragraph sentences or embedded phrases from an article published in the [US] Council on Foreign Affairs' journal, Foreign Policy. These phrases convey the essential conclusion which everyone else has already reached: the Ukrainian invasion of the Russian Federation in Kursk is at best meaningless.
The authors struggle to inject any hope or sense into the suicidal sacrifice of men and machines [all are quotes from the article]:
the offensive raises more questions than answers
A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make
Kyiv’s present theory of success remains unclear
assuming Ukraine can also hold the line
Bernard, formerly trained in a tank regiment, notes that the Ukrainian 152nd Mechanized Brigade is being reconstituted as a "Jager Brigade". A Jager Brigade is light infantry. One does not downgrade a mechanized unit and discard the training and experience it has. The reconstitution is an admission of a lack of machinery. This confirms reports from across the lines of contact, for over a year, that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) are constantly destroying in huge numbers Ukraine's machinery of war; their cars, armored cars, armored fighting vehicles, tanks, artillery, and missile launchers (both offensive and defensive).
Vugledar
The town of Vugledar (Ugledar) has been a thorn in Donetsk's side for a decade, since the beginning of the civil war.
It and other towns with mining infrastructure have subterranean storage, secure from observation or attack. The secure storage locations, in combination with either prepared defense positions or urban high-rises, have significantly slowed AFRF progress, particularly in Donetsk. The battles for Bakhmut (Artiomovsk) and Avdiivka are examples. To be effective, these locations need to be manned and those defensive forces need food, water and rest (rotation). The denial of secure transport (logistics) starts a clock for a defensive force. For how long can they maintain their position without food or rest?
The AFRF have been encircling Ukrainian units and towns since the beginning of the Special Military Operation to force them to work against this clock: when to fall back? This same "cauldron" tactic is still being used to considerable effect.
The AFRF has attacked the small town immediately to Vugledar's west from the town's east, rather than from the south across open fields which have been attacked by drones and artillery for weeks. The AFRF had already secured drone and artillery control of the road to Vugledar's northeast. The AFRF is both capturing that town to the west and pushing northwest from Vugledar's east. Vugledar will soon be trapped and isolated in a cauldron.
Pokrovsk
Further to the north of Vugledar, south and southeast of Pokrovsk, the AFRF are closing another cauldron to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw or be defeated by hunger and artillery. The situation allows one to consider the brutality of military strategy and a little of its art.
The AFRF can close this cauldron or leave it partially open through a gap to the north or south of the water reservoir to its southwest. The art is from Sun Tsu, to leave it partially open and offer a route of escape and so not force the Ukrainian units to fight to the death. One waits, leaving them with a very nasty choice; withdraw under surveillance and likely lose 70% of one's strength to drones, artillery and missiles or remain and die due to starvation and artillery. The Kiev command could order the units to remain. This would force the AFRF to preserve the long lines which enclose the units, thus minimizing their effectiveness for the sacrifice of the Ukrainian units. Given that Ukraine is short of troops, this would be a self-defeating choice.
To shift to a chess analogy, Russia has the pieces and is checking Ukraine around the board, forcing it to move. One of Ukraine's most powerful pieces is trapped in Kursk and being eliminated. Concurrently, Russia's freedom of movement has been enhanced. This situation is not accidental. Ukraine's Kursk invasion was an act of desperation caused by Russia's attritional strategy.
Kupiansk and the Oskol River
Further north, the next disaster for Ukraine is looming.
To the north of Kharkiv city, the AFRF maintain their hold on the salient into the Kharkiv oblast which threatens to advance either to the east or west of Kharkiv further extending Russian reconnaissance and artillery range over Ukrainian logistics.
In the east of the oblast lies the north-south Oskol River, with its large and long lake to the south. It divides the territory to the east. To the north of the larger part of the waterway is the city of Kupiansk. The AFRF have been methodically pressuring this territory since it was forced to withdraw from it two years ago. Ukraine's forces are now stretched so thin, especially with its reserves trapped in Kursk, that Russia is ready to lop off territory, cauldron by cauldron.
A recent intensive artillery preparation, following advances in recent weeks, indicates that a series of battles to reach the eastern shores of the Oskol river is being planned.
Cutting the north-south road on the eastern shore by taking a town there will force logistics to run on the western side, closer to the Kharkiv salient. An AFRF presence on the eastern bank will leave the north-south western bank logistics routes in artillery range.
Kursk
AFRF reconnaissance identified a HIMARS missile launch facility to the south of Kursk. It was struck with an Iskander missile strike. A rescue crew was sent to assist remaining soldiers to evacuate. Reconnaissance followed the evacuating party to the location at which they stopped their withdrawal. Another Iskander strike was delivered to finish the specialist, likely NATO crew, who were manning the HIMARS.
Another reconnaissance craft identified an air defense radar and missile system in Ukraine, south of Kursk. It was also destroyed with an Iskander strike by the AFRF.
The AFRF has retaken some small areas of territory in Kursk. Ukrainian units which have been identified in transit there, have been destroyed. Reports are low in number. Those issued indicate the continued destruction of the invading Ukrainian forces.
Update 2024-09-04
Poltava (central Ukraine)
A double Iskander strike on a military training school caused 50+ casualties and around 250 serious injuries. A local person reported that the school hosted some Swedish trainers, possibly associated with the AWACS (reconnaissance and communications aircraft) which Sweden committed to providing Ukraine. Swedish instructors are likely among the casualties.
[Update]: RT has published an article providing details from the Russian Ministry of Defence. At the military training facility “foreign instructors had been preparing specialists in communications and electronic warfare”.
Vugledar
AFRF met no resistance in the town to Vugledar’s west. Whatever Ukrainian forces were there fled. Ukraine’s 77th brigade reported that when the AFRF pushed north they stopped voluntarily, wary of an ambush. Possibly they were commanded to halt.
The AFRF now control the town and surrounding areas to Vugledar’s west.
In the industrial zone of the coal mine to Vugledar’s northeast, the AFRF have taken half of the town. It seems reasonable to assume that they met little resistance, if any, and will complete the capture in a few days when they have had time of verify the absence of Ukrainian forces.
The village to the NNE of the coal mine has been largely destroyed by an AFRF attack of saturated artillery. The AFRF are advancing and are reported to have begun its capture.
One can see the pincers wrapping around Vugledar to capture it in a cauldron. Note the east-west line of black defensive positions to the north, and the northern ‘escape route’.
Pokrovsk Cauldron
Various mappers indicated a Ukrainian withdrawal from the fortifications at the north and eastern edge of the cauldron to the southeast of Pokrovsk which the AFRF is closing. The AFRF has advanced southwards into a village, with another just ahead, to partially close the cauldron.
[This cleaner image is from Larry Johnson’s article published a few hours after this update. It covers some similar news. See Sources.]
Torestsk and Chassiv Yar
The AFRF made advances on the northeastern flank (Druzhba) of Toretsk, and small advances in the center, to the north of the prison.
There were minor changes in Chasiv Yar to the advantage of the AFRF. The AFRF have delivered a wave of FAB attacks on Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar, possibly signalling another push into the city. It has been relatively quiet since before the Ukrainian invasion of Russia in Kursk.
Kupiansk
The AFRF has advanced to now be only 2 Km from the outskirts of settlements on the eastern bank of the Oskol River. This further threatens a significant degradation of logistics for Ukraine in the region.
Kursk
There are unconfirmed reports of a major counterattack by the AFRF pushing the invading Ukrainian forces back through a series of 4 towns, from north to south. Geolocations confirming the progress are yet to be available. The report is entirely plausible, as the offensive occured southwest of the most recently constructed AFRF defensive lines.
There have also been reports of the AFRF destroying all manner of buildings. Of course! There are no Russian civilians there. It is a free fire zone with suicidal invading neo-Nazi Ukrainian and NATO terrorists in it.
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Sources
Ukraine - U.S. 'Experts' Throw [in] The Towel, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-09-02
Ukraine’s Gamble, Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, Foreign Affairs, 2024-09-02
Russian Offensive Picking Up Steam, Larry Johnson, SONAR21, 2024-09-04
Kursk kamikaze attack: The price of Ukraine’s foolish gamble is becoming clearer by the day, Tarik Cyril Amar, RT, 2024-09-04
Russia provides details of strike on Ukrainian military training center, RT, 2024-09-05
What the fall of Pokrovsk could mean for Ukraine [archived], Tatarigami, Euromaidan Press, 2024-08-28
This article provides excellent analysis of the strategic risk for Ukraine with the now much developed Russian presence around Pokrovsk. There are several very useful maps.
Russia’s Donbass Offensive Picking Up Steam, Larry Johnson, SONAR21, 2024-09-02
Larry C. Johnson： Ukraine'\''s Army Crushed by Kursk Incursion？! Israel Helpless Against Hezbollah？ [PsCizI0j9nY], Alkhorshid interviews Johnson, Dialogue Works, 2024-09-02
Larry Johnson ： Russian Offensive Picking Up Steam [qsHVZ556P58], Napolitano interviews Johnson, Judging Freedom, 2024-09-03
Col. Jacques Baud： Is Ukraine Facing Major Setbacks ？ - Israel’s Army Crisis： Is it Their Economy？ [Zc67u-7WLTE], Alkhorshid interviews Baud, 2024-09-03
Harvest Time 🔥 The Russians Outflank Vuhledar From Two Directions ⚔️ Military Summary For 2024.09.02 [hcG3B69fDss], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-09-02
Harvest Time🔥The Pokrovsk Noose Is Tightening⚔️Siversk Has Trembled🔥 Military Summary For 2024.09.03, Dima, Military Summary, 2024-09-03
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