Checking the Chess Board
Pondering Policy and Guessing through the Glass Ball
[Image, source Wikipedia. Completely stolen from Pepe’s piece. I like it.]
Two key sources today, an article by Pepe Escobar, who is my oracle for central Asia, and a podcast (see Sources) by The Gaggle (Geroge Szamuely and Peter Lavelle). The primary topic is Afghanistan with a brief look at other areas of tension for which a few additional sources are provided.
Please read Pepe's article. He examines the future of Afghanistan through the eyes of its tribal and ethnic diversity, and the key multilateral institutions established by China and Russia, and their plan for pan-Asian economic integration.
Positioning (for) Afghanistan’s Future
I agree entirely with Pepe that the China-Russia alliance views Afghanistan as an important part of the integration project. I had previously stated that the rail links would avoid Afghanistan due to a lack of stable governance. Time will tell. Pakistan and Iran are far more important, but as neighbors of Afghanistan, the ongoing civil war in Afghanistan needs to be scaled back to the odd outburst of violence amongst the tribal groups. Particularly, a balance of power type government needs to be established with Russia-China having at least the following aims:
removal of all foreign fighting forces
prevention of the rise of terrorist/extremist groups
reduction of refugee flows (to alleviate pressure on neighbors)
stable international trade / eurasian integration
reduction in poppy production
It seems to me that the normal state of affairs in Afghanistan is a low level conflict between the different tribal leaders (or warlords if you want to call them that) and them positioning for influence in the central government. This balance of power sharing structure is upset when foreign military forces enter the country and attempt to shift power. This can unite various tribal groups to forget about their differences until the foreign military forces have been ejected. Thus, the critical importance of the removal of foreign fighting forces to disband any local alliances caused by their presence.
An Aside
Funnily enough, the default state of Afghan affairs is probably a better form of representative government than the USA. You hold elections, and everybody knows in area X where leader Y is in power the result will be to elect someone who does the bidding of Y. Y will have alliances with similar ethnic groups and thus they form a block in parliament. Other alliances of convenience will be established as benefits can be gained. Whereas the USA model is that people vote in two rounds. The Democrats rig the first round so that only appropriate candidates stand. During the second round of voting itself the Republican suppress voters that would have voted for the Democrats, meanwhile they both gerrymander districts to create permanent red or blue districts which means that all of their resources can be put towards the "marginal" seats. But, in the end it matters very little, apart from career advancement, who is elected to Congress or the Presidency because it is the influence of the MICIMATT which chooses legislation and foreign policy, except for things that matter little or circumstances of exceptional public pressure. In Afghanistan the people know who the powerful are. In the USA the vast majority of people do not. Real "democracy" in the USA is limited to the local level. Similarly, the local Afghan leader needs to care for a significant proportion of the local population or he will be toppled. I am confident that many will strongly disagree with this trivial analysis. Whatever. Have a think about it.
Back to the Objectives
Of the objectives, the key is the second as it impacts the first. The Turks have committed to defending Kabul Airport. This is insanely stupid, and is so obvious a telegraphed upper-cut that the Taliban have immediately rejected it. Syria will eventually, when the "time is right" (i.e Russia, Syria and Iran, in that order, agree it is so), retake Idlib. When this happens tens of thousands of terrorists (religious extremists with heavy and light weapons) will flow back across the northern border to Turkey. What will Turkey, the NATO uncontrollable "ally", do with them? There are four obvious places for them to be relocated, Libya, Xinjiang, Afghanistan and Armenia/Azerbijan. But, hey, if you control the Airport in Kabul, and destabilization of any settled power sharing agreement in Afghanistan is the agenda, a significant portion will go there.
There are plenty of other sources of foreign terrorist groups, but if this objective can be achieved, which is really a sub-category of the first objective, then good progress on the third objective is made.
Stable Governance
The puzzle for China-Russia and Afghanistan's significant neighbors (Pakistan, Iran, and to some degree India) is how to create a "stable" (lets call it "normal") situation in Afghanistan and achieve the objectives outlined above. The key tool, as ever, is intelligence, and I think this is what Pepe is hinting at in his title. The regional powers need to know how to influence (bribe, call it what you want) individual Afghani tribal leaders, and the same for political blocks, like the Taliban.
The "bribing" is to be done by the investment of infrastructure to facility the BRI/Silk-Road. It is a win-win. The reduction to only sporadic fighting allows trade an opportunity to increase, and the BRI infrastructure will accelerate this. While increased trade will be a wide benefit, investment money for the BRI will be distributed to the regions, some more than others, and the money will trickle-down via nepotism or other tribal customs which I expect are a very old form of power relations amongst a tribe, and no doubt differ between the tribes. But, its their society, not mine, so they can work it out. If we "westerners" want to help, do not send in journalists to write alarming articles on human rights abuses, but build schools, hospitals and universities. Of all things, gently target the education of girls and young women.
Oh, and nobody wants Afghanistan to have any significant missile or god forbid nuclear program. Quiet words will be spoken. If Afghanistan is integrated in the BRI that will give Russia-China all the leverage that it needs.
The Fields of France (oops), Hills of Afghanistan
The Taliban had done an excellent job of reducing poppy production before Uncle Shmuel (as The Saker labels the USA) and his NATO lackies got involved. Lavelle accurately describes the proper response to 9/111 as a police action; it was a crime. Of course, the MICIMATT went into Wurlitzer mode and it was a “declaration of war”.
There was only one congress-critter who objected to the war footing that the USA launched itself on via the "AUMF”. This legislation is a complete abrogation of Congress’s responsibility as the only arm of government that can declare war. It was Representative Barbara Lee. Her very short speech should go down in history as one of the greatest in Congress; she stood alone against everyone and just asked everyone to calm down for a bit. (See sources)
Indeed, the Taliban did say they would hand over bin Laden if evidence was provided for his involvement in the crimes of 9/11. But no, its all “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” (hang, on they are the government of Afghanistan who had been given tours of the USA and its Whitehouse some years previously) and JSOC/SAS/night raids, the killing of civilians and then USD 2 trillion to create havoc for 2 decades for the enrichment of various military contractors, the advancement of some officers and the dumping of a continuous flow of external funds to create a new even more corrupt Afghan elite. Good job, NATO.
The reason that Russia-China want the poppy production reduced is that they know how evil (and profitable) it is. They wish to deny the "black market" funds that the CIA (and other allied intelligence agencies) use to fund their corresponding "black ops". Removing this funding source reinforces all of the above objectives.
What will be interesting is where the CIA moves to replace this income source. In the short term, eyes on an increase in Cocoa production in Colombia, but that is a stop gap measure. Back to the golden triangle, one presumes. Watch out Loas and Cambodia.
Other areas of tension
The big two are Taiwan and Ukraine. The Ukraine seems largely stabilized. Their president is frustrated by lack of support from his NATO backers, but is really trying to destablize the country by passing a law turning various ethnic minorities into second class citizens. Meanwhile, NATO know that Russia will not back down and they cannot afford economically or politically to start a war there. So, I expect stalemate for some time. It should be noted that despite all the alarm about the NATO naval exercises "SeaBreeze" in the Black Sea, to now, Scott Ritter is correct; it was not likely to be a risk.
Taiwan is a much bigger problem. The USA is backing itself into a corner, or its belligerent military leadership, some of the 4 and 5 star generals, are gunning for a war. I'll have more to say on this in the future. John Pilger beat us all by years with his documentary "The Coming War with China".
The Gaggle talk also about Ethiopia and Haiti, and forecast the "human rights" interventionists rubbing their hands. I think so too. The tired "Right to Protect" bullshit doctrine will be rolled out. However, as I mentioned recently, neither Russia nor China are being so passive with their vetoes in the UN Security Council. They have learned from the Libya disaster.
MoonOfAlabama has an article on MI6 and various FCO contractors stirring up trouble in the Balkans. I am completely unsurprised.
I could mumble about Belarus, but I think the internal sabotage against neo-Nazi Roman Protasevich will have given sufficient information to the modern KGB to slow down that little colour revolution train for a while too.
Sources
New Great Game Gets Back to Basics, Pepe Escobar
TG 394: Biden Doubles Down on Plan to Withdraw from Afghanistan, The Gaggle
“Speech on 9/14/01”, Barbara Lee’s youtube channel
‘Strategic Clarity’ Won’t Solve the United States’ Taiwan Dilemma, The Diplomat
A Secret British 'Strategic Communication' Campaign Aims To Fracture The Balkans, MoonOfAlabama