Dancin' in Djibouti and Aiden' the BRI
Balloons are shot down by F-16s, Lavrov rags on Raab and we stay a'Brest of history.
A video round up on selected topics, with some Comments below and a note on an upcoming Historic anniversary:
Video Roundup
Regis Tremplay has Ray McGovern on to talk about the US/Russia summit:
Ray McGovern - Amazing insights on the Blah Summit
Prof. Kuznick on US/NATO/Russia/China geopolitics before the summit
Update: US Relations with China & Russia, the G7 Summit and the Nuclear Ban Treaty | Prof. Kuznick
Mercouris talks about David, sorry, Dominic Raab getting chewed out by Lavrov.
Russia's Lavrov Chews UP UK's Raab in Fiery Call
Paul Jay interviews Wilkersen and Engler on the status of NATO. There are two great info-graphics in this showing the expansion of NATO and the relevant years. It is an inexorable march to Russia’s western border.
Is NATO for Security or Aggression? - Wilkerson & Engler
Vanessa Beeley considers the positions taken by "anti-imperialist" journalists as she comments on Syria post Presidential Election and is surprised by the passion and defiance of the local population.
Vanessa Beeley Discusses Syria's Democratic 2021 Election
F-16's vs balloons; New Israeli government same as old, with Richard Medhurst
israel Breaks Ceasefire: Anti-Arab March in Jerusalem & Bombing Gaza
Comments
The Lavrov/Raab discussion is instructive, and harks back to the US/China meeting in Alaska. Wilkerson in the Jay interview mentions some of the economic and demographic troubles that Russia has. I add to that its new military technology and most importantly its quasi-alliance with China. They've just held their 16th conference on cooperation, and China is the largest economy and this will continue under BRI. Thus, Lavrov is sick of the insolent rubbish from little second power UK and puts Raab in his corner. I'm not sure how wise this is, but it will have little consequence as the UK itself is in all sorts of Brexit bother.
Mercouris also mentions the likely win by the German centrist CDP in the upcoming September elections, which is likely to produce a warmer relationship with Russia. But, China is Germany's main trading partner. I think what we're seeing is as I said recently, the world changing. A loosening of the political ties within NATO (to counter Wilkerson) as countries realign on economic policy.
I think China sees the future of the BRI in Eurasia as largely solved; it will have great birthing pains, but is largely inevitable with Russia on board. This is why I see their establishment a few years ago of their only, single, unique, solitary foreign military base in Djibouti as a very interesting choice. The hardest part of the BRI may well be the African part, which is very important for access to various minerals. Dibouti is very well situated.
Map of Trans-African Highway System with South Sudan included 2019, CC-BY-SA 3.0, no modifications.
It gives China potential influence in trade from the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea through the Suez, and the Mediterranean the other way, but equally importantly a position on the African continent to facilitate or protect extensions of the BRI into Africa via local waters from Pakistan or wherever. I am sure that as soon as the Saudi/Yemen conflict can be pacified, just like in Syria, the Chinese will be in there immediately to help with reconstruction. This would secure their position. As we know, the Yemeni forces are being supported by Iran with which China has just signed a 25 year deal on cooperation and development. I expect China to get a 100 year lease on the port of Aiden, which they will entirely rebuild and upgrade, purely for trade purposes but with dredging to also allow Chinese naval vessels "just in case". There will also be an intelligence part; radar and other listening stations. This sister port will solidify a key strategic interest in one of the most traveled ship trade routes, to/from the Suez, and will secure a sea route to Africa.
History
In a few days, the 80th anniversary of the start of the Great Patriotic War, as the war between Germany and Russia is known in Russia and eastern Europe, will occur on June 22nd. Celebrations are certain to occur at the Brest Fortress in Belarus with full Belarus and Russian military honors. I expect the blank firing of many large artillery pieces, and planes overhead showing the colours of both countries’ flags.
On this day in 1941 Germany betrayed their non-aggression pact and so began the beginning of the deaths of 26 million lives from Russia and some eastern European countries. You could, of course, talk to the Czechs, Poles, Norwegians, Danes, Dutch, British, Belgians, French and many others who would tell you that "the war" had started way earlier. Indeed, you could be lectured by the Spanish and the International Brigades that all these other people still don’t know when it begun! Just dont ask the bankers, industrialists, or the WWI historians or it all gets way too complicated.
But, this is when it started for Belarus and Russia.
War is horrific and immoral. It is important to remember this at every opportunity.
Lest we forget.
Post-Script
Understanding the context of WWII between 1941 and D-Day, the roles of the Soviet Union, the UK, and the USA in various forms of delay and betrayal is complex. It is impossible to understand this in a few minutes, but Prof. Kuznick lays out quite a few important points which smash to little pieces the Holywood post war propaganda films and general cultural narrative. Non-Russian allied forces faced 10 German Divisions, says Kuznick, while Russia faced 200. These numbers differ a little from other lessers I’ve seen, but only a bit, and he’s a Professor of History. At the end of the video, Kuznick paints Putin with a human face, as the child of parents who suffered in WWII.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s parents lost a son during the Battle of Stalingrad, an older brother Vladimir never knew. His speech on the 75th anniversary of the European victory of WWII is worth reading.
Untold History of the United States: DDAY & World War II