Donetsk vs Kursk
Prolonging a war is SOP for the Hegemon
[Recent Russian progress into the mining region south of Pokrovsk, almost all of it in a week.]
Published: 2024-08-19
Defending “Red lines”
The number of dead soldiers fighting for Ukraine in the US/NATO versus Russia war in Ukraine and now Russia (Kursk) is close to three quarters of a million. Adding double that for severely wounded, a conservative estimate, places the total number of casualties for the Ukraine/NATO side at 2 million.
Recent statements by various commentators have alleged that Russia does not defend its red lines. A core Russian red line has always been Ukraine's entry into NATO. 2 million people would disagree that Russia has not defended that red line, if they were still able to speak.
Recent statements by veteran Russian diplomat Sergei Lavrov responded to alleged considerations by the US to escalate the war even further by approving yet another class of long range weapons to be used to attack the Russian Federation. These include stealth capable missile with variants having a range of 900 Km. Lavrov has been disabusing US politicians and members of its executive of the false notion that a third world war would be limited to Europe.
Funding
US and European member states of NATO have hit another funding block for Ukraine. The US is in election mode, which precludes significant new funding. Germany has hit a constitutional block on further funding. It will offer no more this year and a dramatic reduction next.
The proposed 50 billion Euro loan, supposedly to be serviced by interest from the 250+ billion USD impounded by EU, British and US banking institutions, may proceed but has already caused serious damage to these institutions' international reputation.
Ukraine recently defaulted on its Eurobond payments. The nation is broke with a destroyed economy.
Its military fortunes are dire, too.
Kursk
NATO's invasion of the Russian Federation using its weapons, money, surveillance data, command and control, precision weaponry and many Ukrainian soldiers has been blocked by Russia. No significant military strategic or operational advantage has been achieved. Indeed, NATO and Ukraine have committed a huge collection of armaments and Ukraine's strategic reserves into a dead end.
A warning from Russian Col. (of parachute regiment) Frants Klintsevich who is also a Russian Senator and the head of their veterans organisation for the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s was re-issued by Gilbert Doctorow. Andrei Martyanov comments that Klintsevich was a political officer with no command experience. Whatever the case, the conflict to rid Russian soil of the latest batch of invading Europeans will not be trivial. It is unlikely to be very quick, having already taken 3 weeks. There are thousands of enemy combatants to identify and eliminate.
Russian reconnaissance and their air force are striking in the rear on Ukrainian and Russian territory to impact logistics (resupply, reinforcements etc.). Exposed NATO vehicles are being destroyed by various stand-off weapons. Reports from fighting in Kursk are few.
Following the invasion Russia took two approaches. They deployed reserves, including Marines and the Akhmat special forces to find and block or fix the invading forces. In the rear, Russia began creating an extensive defensive line. This process is still running, with the defensive works now running southeast from its original east-west line. From this secure position Russia is deploying more soldiers to rid itself of this latest European (and some US persons) invasion.
[A frame from Dima’s video. The image is from a timelapse representing the construction of Russian defense lines to the north of current contact lines, roughly corresponding to the red lines on the map behind.]
The "success" of the invasion is that in response Russia has refused to negotiate with anyone to end the war until its territory is restored. This may not be until the end of the year, after the US election. This will make it difficult for whichever administration follows the election, and thus secures the war for the US Military Industrial Complex and the Cold War ideologues who provoked the war in the first place.
For an insightful discussion of the political forces active in Russia shaping its political and military decisions, please enjoy the interview with John Helmer [with The Duran] included in Sources, below. The Russian Military’s influence could be summarized as, negotiations begin after Ukraine’s unconditional surrender, because whatever the negotiations are will not be worth the paper on which they are written.
Donbas
In Donbas, and Donetsk in particular, the war is proceeding perhaps too quickly for Russia. This contains a hidden risk.
In Kupiansk (eastern Kharkiv oblast), Russia is methodically pushing to the Oskoll River, being less than 10 Km from the eastern bank in multiple places. This advance threatens a collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the northeast of the oblast due to worsening logistics.
In Donetsk, fighting in Chasiv Yar has been minimal. The battle for Toretsk continues to Russia's advantage at a normal, methodical pace in the centre after capture of the entire east.
Around Pokrovsk, Russia's advance is currently near instantaneous, reports Dima (Military Summary). In a week Russian forces are over half way through the capture of the entire strategic north-south mining strip to Pokrovsk's south east. The strip contains two large towns, one of which was captured in 4 days. In the last two days, Russia has captured half of the second.
To the north of the strip, on Pokrovsk's east, Russia has captured the outlying towns. Captured territory extends north eastward around the water barrier there. This puts the road from Pokrovsk to towns to its northeast under Russian surveillance and drone and artillery control. Further Russia progress to ensure total control of these roads is likely in quick time.
In central western Donetsk, Pokrovsk is the main logistics hub for Ukraine . Its fall will drastically affect logistics for everywhere around Pokrovsk in Donetsk.
[A map posted by former advisor to the former Ukrainian President Zelenski, Alexey Arestovich. Source: Moon of Alabama]
To the south, Russia is launching an attack which they have been preparing for months on Ugledar. This is another mining area. Its mines offer major subterranean storage, which in other areas have strengthened Ukraine's defenses.
However, during the recent lightning advances around Pokrovsk, towns are being taken so quickly because of a lack of defensive soldiers many of whom are involved in the invasion of Kursk. One can have all the equipment in the world, but without trained soldiers to employ it, one has nothing. This is the reality which is emerging in the fighting around Pokrovsk. The dead end invasion of the Russian Federation has left Ukraine’s Donetsk near denuded of defense. This may result in a total collapse of Ukrainian defense in Donetsk which may offer a helter skelter advance to Russian forces.
This is the perverse risk which faces Russia's military command. The deliberative, methodological process displayed by the Russian military during the campaign in Donbas suggests that they will not fall for the poison apple of a hasty capture of territory which would risk thinned lines.
Geopolitics
The US/NATO/Ukraine gambit of the invasion of Russia to preserve the war into 2025 at the expense of Donetsk aligns with another US objective. It keeps Russia busy.
Brazil's sale of oil to Israel and its partial support for US spurious allegations of the illegitimacy of the Venezuelan elections indicate that President "Lula" and his administration are under the thumb of Washington. Next year, Brazil will take the rotating presidency of BRICS+. This, and the invasion, place some pressure on Russian President Putin to achieve progress towards BRICS+ objectives during the rest of Russia's presidency for the remainder of 2024. The BRICS+ summit in Kazan will almost certainly be partially overshadowed by the ongoing eradication of US/NATO/Ukrainian forces from Kursk.
Militarily the Kursk invasion might be challenging but will be defeated. It has enabled a rapid increase in Russia’s progress towards one of its core objectives, the complete capture of Donetsk.
Before the invasion, Russia was under some international pressure to settle the war diplomatically. That pressure evaporated the instant that it was invaded. If, beyond the prolongation of the war, another US goal was to weaken Russia internationally, that US wish may well seriously backfire. The US is demonstrating that it will take wreckless action against a nuclear power. This may further strengthen the international movement to isolate the belligerent, genocide supporting, lawless hegemon.
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Sources
Later
Russia’s Donbass Offensive Picking Up Steam, Larry Johnson, SONAR21, 2024-09-02
Original
For Russia, recovering Kursk is no walk in the rose garden, Gilbert Doctorow, Gilbert Doctorow, 2024-08-27
Caution: Red Line Crossing, Ted Snider, Antiwar, 2024-08-25
Ukraine SitRep: The Collapse Of The Donbas Front, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-08-28
A Tale of Two Offensives: Endgames in the Ukraine War?, Jack Rasmus, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2024-08-29
Germany cancels future funds for Ukraine's war effort, Ben Aris, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2024-08-29
Kursk, Istanbul 2 and the negotiation trap w⧸ John Helmer (Live) [-lquZhs-UTQ], Mercouris and Christoforou interview Helmer, The Duran, 2024-08-29
Andrei Martyanov： Russia's Plan to Annihilate Ukraine's Army [degMeDv3i0o], Alkhorshi interviews Martyanov, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-30
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow l Russia's Kursk Recovery： The Mission No One Saw Coming？ [59Rh6x8mi1w], Alkhorshid interviews Doctorow, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-28
The Heat🔥 Nothing Beyond Pokrovsk⚔️ Consequences Of A Fatal Mistake💥 Military Summary For 2024.08.29 [it7i3ONVWfs], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-08-29
The Heat🔥Kursk - Strategic Mistake⚔️Everything Is Collapsing In Donbass💥 Military Summary 2024.08.30, Dima, Military Summary, 2024-08-30
The upper video from 2024-08-29 overemphasizes positional gains in the central city of the mining strip. The next day's video clarifies that it is much more likely that Russia's focus was just to the sou'sou'east in a nearby town. This is to secure a shorter route for resupply/logistics.
This update does not change the general picture, just the specifics.
It is worth noting that Dima is building his map and information from open sources on a war, which are full of speculation and intentional disinformation. It is a challenging job. He notes his likely error in the above video, as he does when his previous reporting is erroneous or likely erroneous. He is working, by definition, in the fog of war. His focus on video evidence is what grounds his reporting among more speculative information.
We as viewers benefit from being aware of the information space in which he works, listening with a skeptical ear, and coming to our own conclusions. I am grateful for the work he does, irrespective of recent criticism he has received from other commentators to which I also pay attention.
I hope that you, dear reader, display a similiar degree of skepticism to opinion you may read here. The sources provided are for your use.
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