[Russian Federation veteran diplomat Sergei Lavrov.]
Published: 2023-11-03
Introduction
This year Israel's military using US supplied munitions and aeroplanes has attacked Syria at least 28 times without UN Security Council approval. Every single case is an international crime of unprovoked, unauthorized, international violence.
This is on top of the fact that Israel still sits on the Golan Heights, lands stolen from Syria and Lebanon during the 1967 illegal Israeli war.
The Event
Following a phone call between Russian Federation Foreign Minister Lavrov and his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mekdad, the Russia's Foreign Ministry (RFFM) issued a summary ("read out") of the call. This amounts to issuing a "press release" to all of the world's diplomats. Lavrov is one of, if not the most respected international diplomats.
Tass reports, quoting the read out:
"Sergey Lavrov stressed the inadmissibility of the armed escalation spreading to Syria and other countries of the region," it said. "In this context, he pointed to the inadmissibility of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory, which have become more frequent amid the situation around the Gaza Strip."
Tass continues that the two foreign ministers called for an immediate ceasefire, humanitarian aid and the same measures which all sane foreign ministers are advocating.
The key word, quoted by Tass is "inadmissibility". This is an unequivocal warning from Russia to Israel to stop attacking Syria. Now. Stop.
Background: The Dirty War on Syria
Following the "Arab Spring", a series of popular uprisings in the Middle East (West Asia) and North Africa in 2011, the US and UK with additional funding from various Gulf states orchestrated a continuous coup against Syria. Foreign (to Syria) fighters were trained, armed and paid to attack Syria to destabilize the al Assad government. The destabilization created "ISIS" which the US military then decided to attack. This "justified" the creation of two key bases. One in the north where, as US President Trump so accurately informed the world, the US was stealing Syria's oil. The other more important base is at al Tanf in the south east on the Jordanian border. This sits atop the main land route from Iran, via Iraq to Syria and then onwards to Lebanon and northern Israel.
In response to the US lead insurgency, Iraq's parliament issued a law declaring all non-Iraqi military present in Iraq as unwelcome, which naturally the US ignored. The more significant response was the formation of the "Axis of Resistance" a regional alliance between Iran and Syria (who have a mutual defence treaty) and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
After the declaration of the Caliphate of ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (or al-Sham), a response which was predicted by a RAND report) the "moderate rebels" took Mosul in northern Iraq and then pushed south towards Baghdad. The Iraqi army, trained and equipped by the US, not only fled but also abandoned their equipment strengthening the largely foreign, radical Sunni fighters.
The ancient city was under direct threat. Iraq's most revered Shia cleric, al Sistani, issued a call to arms (fatwa) to defend Baghdad. The volunteers who answered that call needed to be organised and trained. This was performed by one of the region’s most respected military leaders, Iran's leader of their Quds [Jerusalem] force, the external arm of their Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Suleimani. The PMUs (People's Mobilization Units) which he formed halted the advance of the barbarians and defended the holy city of Baghdad.
You may find that last sentence a little strange. Its the best Christian-centric way I can put this. In a Moslem world view, Baghdad is akin to a 'Rome'. The Caliphate there during the end of the first millennium (BCE) ran a translation project wherein every scholarly work which could be found was translated into Arabic. It is this effort, in Baghdad, which enables us to know of much of ancient Greek (and other) writings. Baghdad is an ancient cultural city, and it was being attacked by uncultured hordes, Sunni or not, like Rome being attacked by the Visigoths. Those who joined the PMUs and halted this barbarian advance on Baghdad performed a service to their church (and God) and will forever be honored for it. Suleimani was the General who led them.
He, along with another Iraqi leader of the PMUs was assassinated by the US under uncouth, misogynist president Trump. Qassem was on a diplomatic mission to find a settlement between US armed Saudi Arabia and the Iranian supported Houtis, the belligerents in the Yemeni conflict which was instigated by Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Sulman (MbS) who was then under the thrall of the US. Oh, how things have changed!
During the last decade, during the dirty war on Syria, this ongoing destabilization of the Middle East, Israel has been constantly, illegally attacking Syria. A question which has plagued this geopolitical analyst is why Russia has tolerated Israel’s belligerence against its ally Syria for so long and when it would put its foot down?! The later question seems to have been answered: when Israel and its US protector’s international stance became untenable, AKA the politically opportune moment.
Back to the Event
This warning to Israel that further attacks on Syria are "inadmissible" is a significant event.
Recall that Sevastopol in Crimea is Russia's only warm water port. There is another, leased from Syria, in Tartus. To that was added in 2015 a no-end-date lease on a nearby airfield at Khmeimim. These two are extremely important extra-territorial Russian Federation military bases.
The amazing success of Hamas' attack from Gaza into Israel and then Israel's brutal response created two parallel responses. Firstly, the Arab world was amazed and inspired that little Hamas could do this to the meddling Zionists. Then, in response to the Israeli brutality the neglected Palestinian cause has been resurrected. As Crooke observed to Napolitano recently, there are Muslim Arab fighters itching to join brigades to support the Palestinian cause. This is the problem. So old is the regional animosity toward the meddling, Zionist, colonial settlers and their expansionist, apartheid, US backed state that the conflict can spill over into other areas.
This declaration by Russia that further attacks on Syria are inadmissible is a declaration that Russia will deploy its military to defend Syria. Russia has just put its very large boot on the regional scale.
During the US+UK+France dirty war against Syria which included a new form of psyop with the "White Helmets", a MI-6 created "human rights" propaganda arm, and false flag chemical weapons incidents, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) fought beside Russia's military. Now, after the first hot phase of that foreign insurgency, the SAA is a very experienced military. Many a commentator while opining on the current regional tensions will skip straight to Iran and their military. Yes, they are the major local force. However, one would be well advised to not forget the SAA. The Iran/Syria mutual defense treaty means that attacking either is to take on the military capabilities of both.
The ever mercurial and opportunist Erdoğan has recently declared that Turkey and its military are siding with the Palestinians in this cause. He has elevated his and Turkey's status in the region through this. Turkey’s navy would certainly be well positioned to provide defense for sea delivered humanitarian aid to Gaza. They have run the gaunlet of breaking the Israeli imposed sea blockade of Gaza before.
Ignoring Pakistan, which is just outside of the region, there is one other major regional non-NATO military power to consider. Egypt cannot side with Zionist Israel in this conflict, and also cannot accept a flood of refugees from Gaza. Accepting the refugees would be difficult in national politics. It would weaken the Palestinian cause and give the Zionists exactly what they want. This conundrum is also true of Jordan and exposes that which the Palestinian Arab Musilims have suffered. They are a stateless refugee population which cannot mass emigrate locally.
Egypt and Jordan are in a very difficult position, of which other regional players such as Syria are well aware. It is extremely unlikely that Egypt's military will have any role other than humanitarian relief in this conflict, unless Israel is stupid enough to attack them. Egypt is essentially a wall to Israel's west.
Summing up the sides to see the resolution
Though I am not a military analyst, I have been following international conflicts for years, am a student of history and do listen to informed military analysis by educated persons as I hope is evident from the references which this newsletter provides. I have taken a considerable interest in logistics and military production since the SMO (Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine). Much can be learned from that, so lets consider what Mercouris and Cristoforou from The Duran have been saying while most of the media have fixated on Gaza.
I believe this was first hinted at by Col Macgregor a week ago, and Hungarian President Orban a week or two before. While it is the case that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as still losing materiel left, right and centre, with 24+ aircraft and multiple Leopard tanks in the last week or so, this is not their major problem. Neither that they are about to receive far less ammunition than they were promised. Nor that their US funding is reducing, as is the political will for it.
Ukraine's main problem is signified by the fact that it is recruiting women. Women can make excellent soldiers and military officers. But, you know a country is in trouble when it start drafting them.
As Orban said, the conflict will be decided by "boots on the ground". At a military casualty loss ratio of 8:1 against Ukraine, that loss is now manifesting in this forced draft. How can a country survive when it loses a generation of young women after it has lost that same generation of young men? This is a total disaster, and their theatrical leader Volodomir should be boo'ed off the stage for it. He has led and is leading what remains of Ukraine into utter catastrophe.
But the key lesson to take away is not of a soon to be apparent lost generation in central and Western Ukraine, but that of logistics. Russia can produce and has produced the armaments to maintain its military engagement. The US and its NATO allies in aid to their Ukrainian proxy cannot.
Returning to the Middle East, in an evaluation of "ammunition capable", add Iran.
To summarize, NATO’s second largest military, Turkey is siding with Iran and Syria. Russia has joined them. Egypt will stay well out of this. Iraq will too. They will not fight for Israel. No regional nation will.
Without Russia, and with sufficient political pressure to keep Turkey out of things, Israel and the US could bully Iran and Syria. But, Turkey is not entirely out of it, and Russia just stepped in, putting its considerable weight on the scale.
Russia will not lose its important bases. They will defend Syria, who will also be aided by Iran. Lavrov is not only telling Israel to cool their jets, Lavrov is telling the world, outside of nuclear war, there is no military solution, no matter how fantastical.
The calculus is simple. Israel and the US have nowhere to go. No regional and NATO led mixture of forces can possibly defeat Russia, Syria, Iran and Turkey without nuclear weapons (and in that everyone loses). Secondly, if an extended conflict breaks out, the world economy will be smashed into little pieces by a denial of the oil trade.
There is only one solution: diplomacy.
This has been announced by the world’s leading diplomat, just following Erdoğan’s positioning of Turkey. This does not look like a coincidence.
There is another perspective I would like to add. Look again at that line up of forces.
This political behaviour is what the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) looks like as a security organisation.
Sources
Lavrov warns against Palestinian-Israeli conflict spreading to Syria, Tass, 2023-11-01
The Killing of Qassem Suleimani Is Tantamount to an Act of War, Robin Wright, The New Yorker, 2020-01-03
The Pentagon plan to ‘divide and rule’ the Muslim world, Nafeez Ahmed, Middle East Eye, 2015-04-03
Unfolding the Future of the Long War; Motivations, Prospects, and Implications for the U.S. Army, Christopher G. Pernin, Brian Nichiporuk, Dale Stahl, Justin Beck and Ricky Radaelli-Sanchez, RAND Arroyo Center, 2008
Ukraine's Sudden High Air Losses Likely Caused By New Russian Missiles, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2023-10-25
Blinken, peacekeepers in Gaza. Houthis war. Jabalia refugee camp. Austin, $44B for Ukraine. U⧸1, Alex Christoforou, 2023-11-01
Media forgets Zelensky as frontline worsens for Ukraine military, The Alexes, The Duran, 2023-11-01
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Scott Ritter, fmr UN Weapons Inspector： Dangers to the US of Israeli invasions., Napolitano interviews Ritter, Judging Freedom, 2023-11-01
Culture
Aretha Franklin - Chain of Fools (Official Lyric Video), Aretha Franklin (1967), uploaded 2021-03-25
Copyleft: CC0
Jesus, I loved Aretha Franklin‘s voice as a child. When I was four my parents gave me an old record player with dozens of LP’s and my two favorite albums were Aretha Franklin and Buddy Holly. I believe he was only 22; the day music died.