European Security Architecture: Plots, Twists, Preparations and Traps
Plots, Twists, Preparations and Traps
[Image: a single frame cropped from President Zelensky’s press briefing after his call with President Biden. Thanks “in time Ukraine” for their coverage of the presser.]
Publication date: 2022-01-30
State of Play
The conversation about any resolution to the tensions being created around Ukraine from policy analysts and commentators with any understanding of modern geopolitical power balances and a knowledge of history acknowledges that solutions minimally involve two key elements:
A continued unrestrained expansion of NATO towards Russia's western borders is an untenable position for Russia. A re-architecture of European security is required and it will need to incorporate Russia's concerns, and importantly embrace terms laid out in the Helsinki Final agreement and many other treaties, notably that of the OSCE which use the term "indivisibility of security". This says that one state increasing its security at the expense of another is not an increase in security, but a degradation thereof when viewed holistically.
Placement of short and/or medium range nuclear capable missiles on Europe's eastern border with Russia is a direct threat to her, and will also not be tolerated. These "dual purpose" M-41 launch systems for missile defense or offensive missiles have already been established in Romania, I think, and are soon to be established in Poland.
From this we learn that the "issue" is not Ukraine. The issue being raised by the Russian Federation (RusFed) is that of her security. It involves all nations on her western border, and military capabilities they host which are capable of delivering devastating attacks on cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg in a matter of minutes.
Various "principles" of "territorial integrity" and the "right to choose" one's military alliance has been put into historical context to expose many a shade of grey.
All signs from RusFed following the written responses delivered to her by the USA and NATO are that she is very unsatisfied with the response to the first point, but that some progress or at least a willingness to continue discussion has been made on the second.
Potential "face saving" solutions to the Ukraine issue have been proposed, the most likely of which seems to be a time limited moratorium on Ukraine membership to NATO.
Foreign Minister Lavrov provided an interview to a Russian radio station, for which the Ministry has published an official English transcript. Lavrov reveals some contours of the written responses, but as requested by the submitting parties, does not discuss details. It is a most interesting read. [The author must admit to having quite a guffaw at Lavrov’s three word response to a question regarding NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg having agreed to be interviewed by Russian radio station “Ekho Moskvy”: “Serves him right.”]
Provocations
As agreed between Fyodor and Tom during their discussion hosted by Qi [linked above], the RusFed was pretty much required to use its military build up around Ukraine to force the USA to engage in these vital security discussions. While this may seem unfortunate, it has been effective. Indeed, the alarmist rhetoric from western, and particularly USA media has served RusFed's interests quite well by raising political pressure. Those media’s common misrepresentations of facts have worked to RusFed's advantage. Note that, as Lavrov has stated, RusFed officials have not once, anywhere, said anything which is threatening to Ukraine, and all of these troop movements are within Russia's own territory.
Mr McGovern raises the question of what has changed since the "summit" in Geneva last northern summer between Presidents Biden and Putin? The answer is that Biden who at the time had some misconception of tension between the RusFed and the People’s Republic of China is now well corrected. The "in excess of allies" position was recently put in stark relief when USA Secretary of State Blinken called China's equivalent, Wang Yi, to probe "chinks in the armor" and basically got lectured by Lavrov himself. [The transcript of a section of the call as issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry can be seen in the last “Updates” part of this article.]
During the last fortnight foreshadowing has been occurring in western media. The first was Whitehouse spokesperson Jen Psaki floating the idea that Russia would stage false flag attacks in Ukraine for some unknown purpose. The second was the UK's intelligence services suggesting that Russia was planning a coup in Ukraine.
Cynics may see these as preparations for these exact responses to be made by the West and blamed on Russia. If this were to be the case, it amounts to a significant raising of tension in the media war, the likes of which some commentators have claimed they haven't seen since the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the USA and UK with a "coalition of the willing" despite no approval for it by the UN Security Council; an illegal act of war.
The laying down of these breadcrumb trails by the intelligence agencies through the media, and the beating of the drums of war has lead to some concern. Recently a one and half hour conversation was held between Presidents Biden and Zelensky which was reportedly heated. Though the text of the call is appropriately unknown, Zelensky did engage in an extended press briefing soon thereafter in which he provides his own summary of the conversation. [See video in Sources].
The Ukrainian President is perhaps putting himself is a spot of danger here. He is directly countering the narrative created by the USA. Imminent Russian threat? No. He also calls for the drums of war to stop beating because it is damaging the Ukrainian economy. His utility to the USA is perhaps waning.
Traps
It does not take a Ph.D in International Relations to see what is going on. If the USA can either bait Russia into attacking the Ukraine, or construct a media narrative which claims they did, then all resistance to these plans, to avoid a war in Ukraine, will vanish among NATO members.
Russia's position on attacking Ukraine is unequivocal. No. So, there are two other strategies, one is for Ukraine's national forces to attack the Donbas and thus suck Russia into a military response. The other is to stage some false flag operation or coup. These are all traps, and the RusFed is fully aware of them. She has very sophisticated human and electronic surveillance in and over Ukraine.
It appears that her response to the first threat, an attack on Donbas, has been to provide the two breakaway republics with more advanced armaments. As for countering a false flag operation or coup, it remains unclear what steps are being taken. Though, one can be sure that these threats are being taken very seriously, especially the false flag trap.
Future Operations
As some sage once said, the future is difficult to predict. Gilbert Doctorow proposes and interesting idea wherein the ongoing collaborative arrangements between the SCO and Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua could result not in the stationing of missiles there, but the provision of port facilities for the Russian and/or Chinese Navies. This would put a cat among the USA pigeons of "you can't have your own zone of influence" narrative. Really? Two can play that game.
The immediate event is, of course, the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games. Students of history will be aware of how these games have been used recently to mask coup plots and other subversive operations whilst the world's media are focused on the efforts of athletes.
Political Hostages
Recently this author commented that the new German Chancellor Scholz was in a rather tricky position. President Zelensky appears in a far more dangerous one.
Sources
Tangled Tale of NATO Expansion at the Heart of Ukraine Crisis, Joe Lauria, Consortium News, 2022-01-28
Chicken Kiev or Chicken Little?, Anatol Lieven, Responsible Statecraft, 2022-01-28
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with Sputnik, Echo of Moscow, Govorit Moskva and Komsomolskaya Pravda radio stations, Moscow, January 28, 2022, Russian Foreign Ministry, 2022-01-28
Anonymous Officials Claim There's An Evil Russian Plot Again But The Evidence Is Secret Again, Caitlin Johnstone, Her newsletter, 2022-01-23
A 'Parthogenetic' Conflict - There Is No Russian Invasion Threat To Ukraine, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-01-25
Russia Hatching Plot to Replace Ukraine Government, U.K. Says, James Marson, Wall Street Journal, 2022-01-23
I Warned About This 5 Years Ago., Andrei Martyonov, his newsletter, 2022-01-26
Russia and the Collective West: what comes next?, Gilbert Doctorow, His website, 2022-01-30
iLive | Press conference of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky for foreign media. 01/28/2022, in time Ukraine, their youtube channel, 2022-01-28
CrossTalk on NATO | Home Edition | Ukraine's Fate, Lavelle interviews guests including Giraldi and McGovern, CrossTalk RT, 2022-01-28
The Gaggle YouTube Superchats, George and Peter, The Gaggle, 2022-01-29
Reports Persist of Biden-Zelensky Row as Washington-Kiev Argue over 'Russian Invasion Threat', Alexander Mercouris, his youtube channel, 2022-01-30
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