Freeman: A New World is Struggling To Be Born
News from the wars on Russia, Iran, Palestine and China
[Mr. Fish]
Published: 2025-07-15
War with Russia
US President Trump used NATO Secretary Mark Rutte's visit to the White House to announce his latest approach to "end" the war in Ukraine. The adjustment is that the US will be paying for far less of its weaponry being supplied to Ukraine. Instead, European NATO member states will be footing the bill.
The Blinken/Sullivan/Biden regime "Trump proofed" the war in Ukraine with its NATO partners via a Congressional allocation of over a hundred billion US dollars for US weapons, and by transfering control of the NATO arms supply coordinating "Ukraine Defense Contact Group" to the UK. Trump's adjustment is to shift the financial burden of the weapons being gifted to Ukraine from the US budget to those of participating NATO member states. (Naturally, bankrupt Ukraine cannot afford the weapons. Its oligarchs have been profiting from the gifted armaments and war while its soldiers are being killed and the nation destroyed.)
US weapons manufacturers will still make money. The Europeans will pay. This mollifies the US Military Industrial Complex (US-MIC) lobby, the Russophobe lobby and may quiet Trump's MAGA base.
The Europeans may steal the $250 odd billion in Russian Central Bank assets frozen in EuroClear and other banks to fund the arms purchases. If so, it will destroy any remaining confidence in European banks.
No statement on the presence of US and other NATO nation "advisers" who are operating much of the weaponry, and planning the war, was made by Trump. Thus, no change is expected there. This is purely a funding shift. But, that may be enough to inspire European electorates to demand an end to the disasterous war. This would enable a US, twisted narrative that the Europeans abandoned Ukraine.
The "new" policy follows that announced by US Secretary of Defense Hegeseth at the February, 2025, meeting of NATO Ministers of Defense:
Over to you, Europe. We've a war against China to prepare.
War with China
“Concrete operational planning and exercises that have direct application to a Taiwan contingency are moving forward with Japan and Australia”
US under-secretary of defence for policy, Elbridge Colby, has been pressuring Japan and Australia to increase their defense spending. Water is wet. Colby has also been requesting that these countries define their responses should there be a war with China. This was the context for the latest pressure.
Colby is running the US-MIC's advertising slogan "restoring deterrence and achieving peace through strength" as he applies pressure in the China/Taiwan context. The US-MIC's representative is asserting that by flooding the world with weapons there will be peace. This assertion can easily be tested by observing US policy in Ukraine or southwest Asia.
In answer to the hypothetical war question, Australia's Minister of Defense Pat Conroy issued the reasonable, boiler-plate deflection, saying that the decision "will be made by the government of the day". This is Oz political speak for "piss off".
War with Iran
During Gilbert Doctorow's recent discussion with Glenn Diesen he related information provided via Chinese experts on the premier Russian foreign policy talk show. Iran has been purchasing significant arms supplies from China as a part of their strategic partnership.
Doctorow's additional point was a partial explanation for why Iran had resisted stronger military cooperation between itself and Russia in their Strategic Partnership agreement. On top of Iran's desire to maintain independence, it may have seen tying itself to Russia militarily as a restriction against thawing tensions with the West. The recently US supported Israeli surprise regime change war against Iran will have adjusted those considerations. Both China and Russia, as well as other regional powers including Pakistan and India, want a a stable Iran.
Pepe Escobar reported that during a meeting of all 10 Defense Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) offers of support for Iran were uniform. This is unsurprising. Not only was the surprise US/Israeli war on Iran typical of the destablizing behaviour from a declining West, Iran is geographically pivotal in the Eurasian economic integration process begun under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The major powers in Asia, excluding Israel and Turkey, recognize the need for a stable Iran for the economic integration project. This topic will be revisited in closing.
During the Israeli and US "12 Day War", China positioned in the Persian Gulf two naval vessels, at least one of which was a signals intercept ship. China officially stated that it took no active part during the conflict. We now have good reason to believe that while this may be true, its weaponry was used by Iran, along with its ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaisance) data.
Here we can return, as was mentioned by Doctorow, to the recent "dog fight" between Pakistan and India. During this short conflict, Pakistan demonstrated the effectiveness of modern Chinese fighter jets, air-to-air missiles and signals intercepts. We can also derive a quiet, but burgeoning, Chinese military export industry. Its clients likely include: Iran, Pakistan, Russia and North Korea.
War with Palestine
On "Reason 2 Resist", Dmitri Lascaris' program, he described an ambush laid by the resistance in Gaza against the genocide implementing IDF. A report from Israeli media confirmed the numbers of 5 IDF killed and 14 wounded, at a minimum.
As military professionals like Col. Wilkerson have noted, the destroyed territory of Gaza is the perfect terrain for asymmetrical (guerilla) warfare. This tactic was employed by the resistance forces in Gaza. Explosives were laid with some form of trip wire. Soldiers exchanged gun fire in the aftermath.
Lascaris, having visited Sderot, noted the close proximity of the Israeli settlement to Beit Hanoun, Gaza, in which the trap was laid. Lascaris asked, is it not surprising that the IDF have yet to capture and control Beit Hanoun, given how close it is to Sderot, just inside the open air, concentration camp fence?
On July 13th, Antiwar reported that the IDF had murdered another 134 Palestinians in the preceeding 24 hours.
Chas Freeman with Glenn Diesen
During Freeman's discussion with Diesen, he lamented the sublimation of the creation myth of the United States of America. That founding ideology, or creation myth, is partly based on the encoding in the US Constitution of the ideals of the European Enlightenment.
Describing himself as an antique, "anything beyond 50 years old is an antique", he cited the undermining of the 1st, 4th and 6th Amendments to the US Constitution. It was the 6th, which promised "due process", upon which he settled to illuminate the sublimation. Due process, he contended, amounts to a "fair process". When a process is seen as fair, parts of a society which may be dissatisfied with the result can still accept it. The fairness of process smooths dissent. Unfair processes elevate divisions in a society.
This ongoing change, the undermining of fairness in processes, legal and electoral, has continued to such a degree that US society is divided against itself. Freeman categorized the US as in a pre-revolutionary state, wondering within itself which method of reform is best suited to fix its broken political institutions.
Returning to the uniform support for Iran expressed at the SCO defense ministers meeting, these nations are making a strategic choice for stability and economic benefit. On one side of the ledger is the US abusing the influence of its reserve currency, implementing coercive economic sanctions, and initiating or provoking wars. On the other, is a recently formed loose alliance constructing international trade settlement mechanisms, outside of the coercive dollar regime, the member states of which do not apply sanctions or engineer wars. Its foundational ideas are the UN Charter and a balance of power of civilizational states.
In its writhing decline, the US led Political West is forcing nations to choose where their future lies.
Freeman reissued an old metaphor:
As an aging system is dying, a new world is struggling to be born.
Update (on Ukraine)
Update
Demilitarizing NATO
Discussion of Trump's latest move to not end the war in Ukraine have focused on the provision of additional Patriot batteries.
Key observations from Larry Johnson:
it doesn't matter, provision of a few extra will not change anything, especially as US production for the missiles they use is very limited (700 per year)
Ukraine does not have the trained personnel either
An additional discussion point has been long range (Taurus) missiles from Germany being provided to Ukraine to be targeted at Russian military production facilities. This likely development was expected by Russia. A source quoted by John Helmer:
Any escalation from Trump will get Oreshniki. Otherwise we will keep grinding away, hit new targets. Americans and Europeans, too. But both sides would like the full-fledged war to be delayed and try to win now through deep destructive strikes. On our side, there is a huge sense of relief that the war continues. Everyone wants peace but no one wants not to win.
[Helmer]
Spain is a potential source of some Patriot batteries, but the process is going to create divisions between NATO member states' militaries and their governments. German Defense Minister Pistorius described that division with:
We only have six [Patriot systems] left in Germany, ... That’s really too few, especially considering the Nato capability goals we have to meet. We definitely can’t give any more ...
[Helmer, again]
On the Ground
On July 14 the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation made a significant breakthrough of Ukrainian defense lines to the northeast of Pokrovsk.
The encirclement of the city is approaching. It will sever logistics, creating a variant of Vugledar.
On the Zaporozhye front, the AFRF completed the capture of Malinovka (to the east of the city of Hulapole).
It opens space to connect with a westward advance from southern Donetsk and thus claiming a large pocket of territory and building the eastern side of a possible future encirclement of Hulapole.
The Ukrainian Rada has passed legislation to extend martial law (and thus preserve Zelensky) for 90 days.
Update sources
Trump Escalates Ukraine War Putin Acknowledges Reality Is Turning Out To Be Marxist ; John Helmer; Dances with Bears; 2025-07-14
Trump Delivers Next Nothingburger To Ukraine; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-07-15
Trump threatens 100% secondary tariffs! | Russia SMASHES Ukraine! | Yemen’s RETURN; Alkhorshid interviews Larry C. Johnson; Dialogue Works; 2025-07-14
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Sources
Trump Announces Weapons Plan for Ukraine, Gives Russia 50-Day Deadline for Tariffs; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-07-14
Trump Delivers Next Nothingburger To Ukraine; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-07-15
US Pressing Japan and Australia on What They Would Do If the US Goes to War With China Over Taiwan; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-07-14
US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan; Ft; Archive.today; 2025-07-13
Ten defense ministers walk into a room in China; Pepe Escobar; The Unz Review; 2025-06-30
New Details: Deadly Gaza Ambush Claims Five IDF Lives, Injures 14; Gila Isaacson; JFeed; 2025-07-08
Israeli Attacks Kill 134 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-07-13
At the White House, Trump and Netanyahu Plot the Final Chapter of Israel's Defeat; Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris; Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris; 2025-07-12
Gilbert Doctorow: Wars Bring Together Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan & North Korea; Glenn Diesen; Glenn's Substack; 2025-07-12
Chas Freeman: The Old World Is Dying, and the New World Struggles to Be Born; Glenn Diesen; Glenn's Substack; 2025-07-13
Copyleft: CC0
"....The Europeans may steal the $250 odd billion in Russian Central Bank assets frozen in EuroClear and other banks to fund the arms purchases. If so, it will destroy any remaining confidence in European banks..."
That's not the only effect. The Russian Federation is also sitting on European assets it froze: investments in Russian companies that were make by European investors. The biggest investors in Russia was not China or the US - it was Europeans.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/stranded-assets-how-many-billions-are-stuck-russia-2022-03-03/
"Stranded assets: How many billions are stuck in Russia?"
Reuters, March 22, 2022
"...March 22 (Reuters) - Global companies, banks and investors have so far disclosed nearly $135 billion in exposure to Russia, company statements show. That number could rise in the coming weeks.
Here is a breakdown of what we know so far, with Russia in the grip of Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine:...."
That there above means that not just European speculators but banks, insurance companies, asset managers, pension funds etc, all stand to lose when Russia plays tit for tat on this.
And where is the Russian money going when the Europeans take it: into the pockets of US weapons manufactuers primarily.
So in short, European misleaders, are gifting Russian money to US weapons profiteers, and European ordinary people will get their pension funds loppped off to pay for it.
Its basically treason by what passes for "leaders" in Europe.