Geopolitics in a microcosm
Watching the policy establishment in action
The topic of this post is a video (see sources) published by the Quincey Institute discussing potential solutions to the conflict in Ukraine between the national army and executive and two break-away "republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk both in the Donbass region on Ukraine’s east border with Russia.
The background to the establishment of the break-away republics and the conflict which followed and continues is the US orchestrated "color revolution" in Ukraine in 2014. If you don’t know that the US was involved I have two hints for you: Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland naming future political leaders of the Ukraine during the uprising and snipers on rooftops firing at both police forces and protesters during the uprising echoing exactly what happened about 3 years earlier in Syria.
Post coup, the new government removes Russian as a national language, and the population close to Russia's border with generational cultural ties to Russia, seeing that an important part of the military force which supported the uprising were the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, derivatives of neo-Nazi forces which had killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians during WWII, decided "Nah, we've seen this before". Of course, they called for support from Russia, who I am certain provided various types of support.
Highlands and Lowlands
Before we get to "support" it is useful to understand the historic relationship between Russian and the Ukraine. Whilst Ukraine has various light and heavy industries it has a huge agricultural sector, a "bread basket". This is a wonderful situation in which Russia can exchange tertiary and secondary goods for primary and secondary goods at a rate which keeps the Ukrainians’ happy but enforces a power relationship. The planning and construction of the NordStream II pipeline can be seen as a direct response to this coup and change of allegiance by the new Ukrainian governments because it will deny Ukraine large amounts of revenue as a transit country for Russian gas (and the Ukrainian's ability to steal some of it).
This trivially simplistic picture of the relation between Russia and Ukraine needs to be complimented by an equally trivial military topographic and logistic analysis. Please have a look at the highest quality graphic of this topographic map of Ukraine.
The key feature of the map is the very large waterway, the Don River running from Belarus in the north, via central and eastern central Ukraine to the Black Sea in the south. On that river's east are lots of farm lands, and then highlands. Focus on the dark brown areas (very high) both in the north east of the map (the Russian Highlands within Russia) and the direct east around Donetsk and Luhansk. There is a lower altitude corridor running through Luhansk into Russia, the easiest route for an advancing army.
As (but I’m not) a Russian military logistics and defense planner one wants control of the highlands either side and of that one access the point at Luhansk, and of Luhansk itself. The “rebel” “republics” align directly with topographically obvious strategic military defense for Russia. Nobody talks about this when talking about the "Donbass" “problem”.
To see that as the “key” to this is to be stupid. There are multi-generational cultural and economic connections between these regions. I am merely trying to provide a wider understanding. Frankly, the military is not too concerned about cultural or economic concerns until they have control over the area. That is the job of the political wing.
Crimea
During the Soviet "USSR" era Russia made the insanely stupid decision to hand over Crimea (for which it had fought long and hard since the Crimean War) to Ukraine.
It hosts Russia's only warm water port.
I have previously mentioned Russia's sensitivity to its western and south western borders. There is no greater place of import on Russia's south western coastal border than the naval port at Sevastapol in Crimea, period. This is the facility that makes the Black Sea a "Russian Lake". In any time of trouble, they can discard any difficult compacts and say GTFO; our water. We'll get back to that in a minute. But know this to be true: it is the most important military facility on Russia's south west coastal border, bar none. For anyone who can gleam the most basic of military logistics (like me) this is so obvious that it hits you in the face. Look at the entrance to the Sea of Azov (hi, again, Ukrainian neo-Nazi battalion). Its flanked by high mountains allowing a very narrow straight, which now has a heavily defended big bridge over it. There is an exposed eastern flank to the Sevestapol port. Apart from that, with the control of Donetsk and Luhansk the south western flank is secure.
Look at the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. What would you put there? Everybody but us plebes know what they have there because: satellites.
Ukraine Color Revolution
When the color revolution happens in Ukraine, and Russia realises what is going down they immediately reinforce Sevestapol. Next, they organize a referendum in which the local population votes 412% to join Russia. Okay, maybe 90-something. The US/West goes verbally ballistic but all silent kinetically (why be that?). Crimea makes Donetsk/Luhansk look like little towns we talked to decades ago. Crimea is where the Russian wealthy have been taking their summer vacations since their grandparents were in nappies. There are other ethic groups, the Tartar etc. and there may have been ethnic cleansing post WWII. Its very difficult to determine if that was just removing the Nazi collaborators or an ethnic cleansing campaign or some combination to the two. Whatever the case, the cultural connection between Russia and Crimea is very long.
Quincy Institute
After that all too brief and way too long introduction, lets get to this Quincey Institute video.
My motivation for this article is that watching the video was both interesting and infuriating. I felt that I had a seat at the table with certainly not as much knowledge as at least some of the individuals involved, but also felt that I had an informed opinion, as I hope that I have partially demonstrated above.
Following an interminably long introduction, Anatol Lieven gets to introduce his piece which the Quincey Institute/Institute for Responsible Statecraft published. His point is simple and clear; there is a solution to the Donbass problem, its on the table and has been agreed upon but is being blocked by Ukraine. All other options are nonsensical and/or people die. Over to you.
Then we have commentary from this Emma who affirms Anatol's analysis and then says that:
we need to link, for example, the Donbass and Crimea issues
[00:21:47]
When I heard this my brain exploded into "you have no idea what you are talking about!" I heard recently, Ray McGovern on Regis Tremblay's interview program describing relations between Sergei Lavrov (veteran Russian Foreign minister) and some emissary from US/EU talking about the Ukraine and potential NATO membership. Ray is relating Sergei's words ,"Niet means Niet". This is an absolute red-line for Russia. Now, combine that with the military logistic analysis I've provided above and consider any possible "political" solution involving the dismantling of the Luhansk defensive corridor AND the loss of Sevastapol. This little chicken’s ideas are extra-galactic.
She waddles on later to mention that an offer of NATO membership could be a part of a conflict resolution. Which galaxy are you in?
It was the first point at which I decided that the Quincey Institute was publishing opinions by someone who had no useful concept of the topic under discussion, and that “well, if that’s the best you little policy house can do, I’m game”. At the second point it was: okay, you have baited me.
But, the other guest, Nikolai Petro was excellent, and both he and the article's author ignored Emma’s not worth a comment comments and spoke of far more interesting and difficult topics.
That's the fun of geopolitics in the “open”; it is full of these difficult and interesting topics, despite obsequious trolls like Emma.
Later
I have no idea how the Ukraine got the idea that moving heavy machinery to the ‘line of control’ between the break-away republics and them would either be not noticed or not important. But, this impression they must have held, for they did it. Train after train of tanks and artillery moved towards the front line between themselves and the “break-away” republics.
Sadly enough some 60+ years previously both the US and Russia had launched satellites, giving global photographic reach. Worst than that! They’ve been upgrading this global photographic surveillance, both of them, for all of the decades since. During the interim the Chinese, the UK, the French, and god knows who else had also established this global photographic surveillance. Shit me not, you can see this stuff with a cell phone using some nasty company’s surveillance app!
But, load artillery and tanks onto trains heading to the front line the Ukrainians did.
As a “thinks a bit, but I’m not that smart” kind a person, I assume that the Ukrainians were deliberately trying to be discovered. If they’re under the thumb of the US then that means that this was an “okay, go ahead” and a “we know, but wont say anything” operation from the US perspective.
One can imagine the response to the satellite images in the Russian executive offices. “They are doing WHAT!?” Okay, you fuckers, you wanna play hardball. You really want this? We’ve got all this new tech and dont want to use it yet. Dammit!”
Ok. 2 Armies and 3 paratrooper divisions to the borders of Ukraine, and send Lavrov to do his thing! As US missile frigates are moving towards the Bosphorous, Lavrov lets the US know that “We cannot guarantee your safety” in the Black Sea. This, of course, is diplo-speak for “you come here and we will destroy everything; Fuck Off”. The US, understanding the political, economic and strategic problems send their two ships to Cyprus for “repairs”.
The separatists in Donbass had been a little concerned as to what degree to support they’d get. Army x2, Paratroopers x3 was reassuring.
A day or two later the UK gets the message and replaces its two destroyers (or whatever) with a patrol boat.
But, the UK are still sending their aircraft carrier to the south China Sea!
Sources
the Conflict in Ukraine: A Negotiated Solution
US official apologises to EU counterparts for undiplomatic language
The Mess that Nuland Made, the late Robert Parry
BBC airs Maidan fighter admitting he fired on police before Kiev massacre
Lawmakers in Ukraine Approve Bill on Language (gotta love the title on this one)
Ukraine crisis: Inside the Mariupol base of the controversial Azov battalion Please note the name of the city mentioned in the article and find that on the map I have provided; it is the south western end of the mountain range from Donetsk. If you think this stuff is about human rights, you’ve got rocks in your head.
The Holocaust in Ukraine : never forget the Nazi’s killed also gays, gypsies, anyone with a disability and all manner of other minorities which amounted to more deaths than the jewery.. The Jews have no ownership of this horrific suffering. It is universally evil.
1954 transfer of Crimea (I really wanted to find a better reference for this, and recommend hunting academic historical sources)