Hamas v Israel: the Latest Page of the Latest Chapter of a Long Occupation and Civil War
The Book of Grievances
[Israel’s “Iron Dome” responds to hundreds of rockets fired by Hamas before their ground attack. Image is from the Al Jazeera source.]
Published 2023-10-09
Updated 2023-10-09: Adding more sources, Chistoforou leads. Interesting comment on the Saudi/US/Israeli deal, “civilian” nuclear technology and oil production increase for the 2023/2024 US election season. I’ll have to hunt down the details of this. Its rather important.
Udpated again, same day: Added “Update: Geopolitical Speculation”.
Echoes of the Yom Kippur “War”
Hamas, from the open air prison of the Gaza strip, has effected on Israel an outrageously successful attack triggering a national response the likes of which has not occurred since the Yom Kippur war of 1973.
Resistance fighters, militants, terrorists or the sons of generations of oppressed Palestinians, choose your label, bulldozed through, flew over or sailed around Israel's national borders and Israel's internal barriers designed to separate Israelis from Palestinians. Within the "Israeli part" of the State of Israel the attackers terrorized civilians, including killing and kidnappings. Many kidnapped individuals have been transported back to Gaza which Israel’s military are bombing, yet again.
Israel has declared war. On what, one may ask? The civil war which has essentially been in effect since the founding of the state is having its latest violent public airing.
Oppressing a people by committing genocide against them, an historically, tragically common practice for colonial settler nations, creates a resistance which can only be resolved by reconciliation. How resistance is expressed varies. Armed resistance is an expected and legally sanctioned response.
How close the latest episode of violence between the Israeli state and armed resistance groups representing the peoples of occupied Palestinian land is to a final end of the book of grievances remains unknown.
The bases for reconciliation are understood. It takes two to reconcile.
Update: Geopolitical Speculation
Alex Christoforou voiced some informed speculation in the video included in sources below which are of possible geopolitical interest. They follow the old theme of the 'powers that be'/'deep state'/military intelligence generating or using existing conflicts to their own ends.
The first point is an examination of the trade on offer with the US security gurantees for Saudi Arabia in return for the Theocratic Kingdom recognizing the state of Israel. The natural question is, who gets what out of this?
Saudia Arabia get the security guarantees, but in all honesty who would value that given the US's recent performances losses in armed conflicts [Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria*, Ukraine*]. The real benefit for Saudi Arabia, Alex informs us, is access to "civilian" nuclear technology. This makes sense. They recognize that their oil reserves will eventually run out and become more expensive to extract along the way. They need to create new industries, and to have access to a replacement power source. Nuclear power is one fairly good option, though they have no uranium that I am aware of, so there is a risk there too. I would have thought solar would be obvious, though it may not provide the volume they need.
But, as everybody knows, once one has "civilian" nuclear technology one can use that to bootstrap the "military" version. This would introduce another potential nuclear power to the geopolitically complex region of West Asia/Middle East on top of the unannouced but armed Israel and the 'have the capabilities but have chosen to not yet produce the required 95% pure concentrations required for weaponry' Iran.
What does Israel get from the three-party deal? Recognition in the Sunni Muslim world. Though, this is likely to turn many Muslims against the Saudi's and that may explain the US security part of the deal.
What does the US get, apart from following Israel's orders? Not much, at first glance. The Saudi’s promised an increase in oil production during the 2023/2024 US (s)election season, but this is a limited, temporary and party political benefit. It does not explain the geopolitical play and the risks inherent in it.
Christoforou then informs us that a Hamas spokesperson said that the complex attack on Israel which has just been executed was approved by Iran. Lets just assume that this is true. The motivation is there, to threaten Israel and thus scuttle the Saudi/Israel deal and in so doing reduce the likelihood of the House of Saud receiving nuclear technology from and with the protection of the US of A. As an aside this would be a flagrant end run around the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but the US geopolitical players couldn’t give a tinkers curse about that.
Christoforou asks a very perceptive question which leads to another possibility. The first report I read, astutely noted that Mossad or Israeli intelligence generally had failed dismally. The Hamas attack succeeded largely because the IDF was caught off guard. Those who assess military intelligence capabilities generally rate Israel's as one of, if not the best in the world. Thus, their surprise is surprising, to say the least. The attempted spin of 'being distracted' by the changes in the Israeli courts or of being focussed on the West Bank just doesn't cut it for me.
This leads to the possibility that Israeli intelligence allowed this attack to occur. If so, the question becomes why, for what purpose?
This is a bit of a pickle and we'll return to it. But, the US will certainly benefit from this. The Hamas attack will put the House of Saud in a very difficult position. They must choose between supporting Israel, whose citizens are the victims of the attacks and the Palestinians who have been killed, displaced, etc. etc. for generations since the Nahkba in 1948. If Saudi chooses Israel there will be hell to pay.
This, in turn, could undo the work done recently by Russia and China to find a raproachment between the Saudis and Iran. As soon as these regional rivals are antagonistic again it will minimally draw Syria in too, and possibly Iraq, such is the state of play in the region. The ceasefire in Yemen could melt and other regional proxy wars be established. If that happens that the whole thing gets extremely complex with Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon etc. etc. at play (needing to choose sides), not to mention the rest of the Gulf. Essentially the whole area of the former Ottoman empire gets destabilized.
The key point for the US is that a rupture between the House of Saud and the Revolutionary Council of Iran would be a very nice prize, for it disrupts BRICS+ and the SCO. It also gives China something else to worry about while Russia is supposedly** distracted in Ukraine.
Now the benefit which Israel will reap becomes clear. It is known Israeli policy to foment trouble in the middle east, to prevent any series of alliances developing. Thus, they can calmly expand their influence and territories, the Greater Israel project. Having the two branches of Islam to play against each other with the assistance of the US is their greatest asset.
The only mistake which I could see Alex making is that he asks us to choose between Iran approving the operation and US/Israel letting it happen.
I suggest that both are true.
I continued this analysis to a different conclusion. Its published in a follow up article, if you’re interested.
Sources
Israel is meant to have a highly sophisticated network of spies. When Hamas smashed through the fence, they were caught by surprise, Rebecca Armitage with Nick Dole, Orly Halpern and Mitch Woolnough in Israel, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2023-10-09
Israel declares state of war, attacks on Gaza intensify, staff, Al Jazeera, 2023-10-08
A look back at 1973’s October War, staff, Al Jazeera, 2023-10-06
Palestine Is Striking Back, b., MoonOfAlamba, 2023-10-07
A Population With Nothing To Lose, Caitlin Johnston, Caitlin's Newsletter, 2023-10-08
They're Repeating The Word "Unprovoked" Again, This Time In Defense Of Israel, Caitlin Johnston, Caitlin's Newsletter, 2023-10-08
The Flood from Gaza, Abdel Bari Atwan, The Cradle, 2023-10-08
Israel-Gaza Conflict, staff, NY Times, 2023-10-08
Israeli forces fight to drive out Hamas militants as death toll passes 600, Yolande Knell, Rushi Abu Alouf & David Gritten, BBC, 2023-10-08
Resistance to Military Occupation: An Enduring Problem in International Law, Adam Roberts, Cambridge University Press, 2017-05-10
Occupation and international humanitarian law: questions and answers, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), 2004-08-04
Reconciliation and Conflict Transformation, Dan Sinh Nguyen Vo, Beyond Intractability, 2008-07
Expert Group Meeting: “Truth, transitional justice and reconciliation processes” 15-17 Nov. 2022, United Nations, 2022
See the fold out "Papers submitted by Experts" for a list of recent publications
The Zionist Plan For The Middle East By Oded Yinon Israël Shahak [ Yinon, Oded Shahak, Israël], Archive.org, 1982
Israel long war. Saudi-US deal in jeopardy. Breaking BRICS+. $100B to Ukraine, one-and-done. U⧸1, Alex Christoforou, Alex Christoforou, 2023-10-08
Culture
432 Hz Moonlight Sonata - Beethoven (aka Piano Sonata No. 14)