Having a Chuckle at van der Crazy's Expense While Watching Border Regions
... and remembering that foreign policy is not monolithic
[The word is getting out. Wrong tune! Stop dancing!]
Published: 2023-11-24
A Tale of Two Messages
In the last few days US Secretary of MIC Defence Austin and last vestige of the realpolitik component of the deep state, CIA Director Burns, both made unannounced visits to see Ukrainian leaders in Kiev. This followed on the heels of US Special Envoy for Money Laundering via Ukraine Reconstruction Pritzker during which she asked the local bosses the hypothetical question [paraphrasing] "What if the US turns off the money spigot?"
Austin's photo-op news headline was the delivery to the election canceling, media controling, opposition-party criminalizing government of the Ukrainian “democracy” a $100 million dollars arms package. One could summarize this latest weapons package as "woeful".
Mr. Burns seems to have been representing a different US faction, that of the remaining realists, delivering a message to Zelensky and co. which amounted to "the gig is up", prepare your exit strategies, perhaps beginning with negotiating with Russia. Of cource, the exit for the big Z is via the door labelled “Valiant but Incompetent” to save Biden’s non-existent re-election skin, which wont even matter given that the IDF is commiting live genocide by the hour.
A Man with his Feet and Boots on the Ground
Just over the border, Prime Minister of Hungary Orbán has had his realist googles on during the whole Ukrainian war and understood from the outset that which was proclaimed by Professor Mearsheimer: the result of a US/NATO lead proxy war with Russia via Ukraine would lead to the destruction of Ukraine. He has has some support from a few other southeastern European nations, such as Serbia, in resisting being involved in the cultural and financial sanctioning of Russia. Hungary, and these other land-locked nations are heavily dependent on piped Russian energy supplies. They also have strong historic ties to both pre- and post-Soviet era Russia going back to the Austro-Hungarian empire and further.
Next June EU parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary. In preparation for that the Hungarian government is conducting a 'national consultation' in which the government provides an optional questionnaire to every household. This has previously involved various topics from the constitution to immigration. Critics of these surveys describe them as a method of political campaigning, in which the government delivers its messages.
[Hungarian political art.]
Mr. Christoforou commented upon an hilarious poster campaign being run by the Orbán government in which EU technocrat Commissioner van der Crazy is being depicted with the Hungarian-US billionaire Open Society Foundation owner's son Alex Soros bearing the suggestion:
Let's not dance to their tune
"The national consultations have drawn criticism from opposition parties and civil society organizations" wrote Hemin Bakir a few weeks before this poster campaign was launched, and perfectly predicted the targets of it. It seems that these critics don't like being laughed at.
In advance of a European Council meeting for mid-December, Orbán has sent a letter to Council chief Charles Michel outlining his reservations about further assistance for Ukraine, Ukraine's accession to the EU, continued sanctions against Russia and other demonstrably stupid or politically and financially profitable but immoral EU/Ukraine/Russia foreign policy choices.
One may recall that in the most recent Hungarian national election all opposition parties in Hungary united against wild differences from far left, EU centric, and nationalist right against the ruling Fidesz-KDNP party. Despite all of the funding for this united opposition, Orban's party was victorious achieving more than twice as many seats in the parliament as all other parties combined. He described his victory as "So large, it could be seen from the moon."
Orban knows that Hungary will again be targeted by the EU's organized technocratic progressives. He is displaying very skilled political leadership, whether one agrees with his conservative Christian Orthodox social policies or not.
Naturally, the EU media are up in arms at this political joust at van der Crazy using 'targeted' with its multiple meanings in their headlining.
[Some EU funded political rag.]
Hungary is just one of the eastern European nations that will become the next border nation for US/NATO targeting should Ukraine return entirely to Russia. There is no sign whatsoever that this is Russia's objective, and were that to happen it would be disastrous for Hungary or other southeast European nations such as Slovakia or Romania. Orban is playing the careful balancing act which former Ukrainian leaders would have been far wiser to play rather than falling for the 2014 US supported coup. The stakes are as real as the close to half a million Ukrainian lives buried during the almost concluded proxy war which Orban is positioning Hungary to survive.
Watching the Borders
These political maneuverings will continue well into the medium term as the new geoeconomic and political blocks form and align.
Another case is that of the Maldives. The English speaking Republic of Maldives became independent of Great Britain in 1965. It is composed of 26 atolls with a maximum height of 2.4m above mean sea level (being the lowest lying national). The nation's population of approx 500 000 reside on a land area of just under 300 sq Kms with a total national area of 900 000 sq Kms. It is situated 750 Km to the southwest of India and Sri Lanka between them and the 500 Km futher distant Chagos Islands, home of the highly strategic US base of Diego Garcia.
[Maldives and Chagos archipelago. The line in the middle is the equator.]
Mohamed Muizzu was recently elected the president of Maldives. He won the election with a campaign to demand the removal of the 75 Indian military personnel which the nation hosts. This has raised fears in western quarters of an increase in Chinese influence in the government. If sea levels are rising, Maldives will certainly require investment to manage its impact. Whichever nation assists the Maldives in this will certainly gain influence.
It's close distance to India implies that it would be well advised to maintain good relations with the nation. The ABC reports that the role of the Indian military on the islands has been to medi-vac people for urgent medical attention, to patrol nearby by sea routes to identify pirates, and other supportive functions. Due to the election result there may well be more to this narrative.
Whatever the case, India's geopolitical position will have an effect on the Maldives, as will the existence of Diego Garcia 500 Kms further to the sou-sou'west. Regular readers of this newsletter may recall that former UK ambassador, friend of Assange and CIA torture whistleblower Craig Murray has been championing the cause of the Chagos Islanders, who had their islands stolen from under them, for many years.
M. K. Bhadrakumar informs us that India is shifting its former strategic ambivalence towards the US camp. This in turn will affect the political freedom of the Maldives. One suspects that the ABC article which speaks of fears of Chinese influence over the Maldives is a projection of US concerns. A change in government has occurred and the new leader is threatening to reject the Indian military presence while India is aligning with the US. Would it be helpful for the US, or India for that matter, for nice little Australia to pay a little more attention to the Maldives for a while? Pretty please?
There are, however, several areas of concern between China and India, especially along their border regions in the Himalayas. These regions, and old entrenched flashpoints like Kashmir between SCO members and eternal opponents India and Pakistan are there waiting to be re-ignited by a failing Hegemon should it attempt to bring the rest of the world down with it.
As these geopolitical adjustments continue it would be wise for observers and analysts alike to recall what was happening in Kiev. Burns and Austin represented different aspects of the US political establishment. National foreign policy is not monolithic. Different national political forces come to bear, sometimes producing outcomes which are nonsensical at first glance.
The question which the non-US/NATO block of BRICS+/SCO are asking is would the world be better served by a multi-polarity in which dialogue, diplomacy and deal making are the norm rather than a unipolar (our) rules based order(s) while engineering armed conflict to fund some core US industries?
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Sources
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán threatens to blow up EU’s Ukraine policy, Nicholas Vinocur, Politico, 2023-11-22
An anti-European Union billboard campaign in Hungary turns up tensions with the Orbán government, Justin Spike, AP, 2023-11-23
Ursula von der Leyen 'unfazed' after being targeted in new campaign launched by Viktor Orbán, Jorge Liboreiro & Sandor Zsiros, EuroNews, 2023-11-20
Hungary’s National Consultation: A Political Tool or Genuine Public Engagement?, Hemin Bakir, bnn, 2023-10-31
India's Massive Shift in Military Policy, M.K. Bhadrakumar, Consortium News, 2023-11-21
Maldives asks Indian troops to leave after inauguration of pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu, Jason Dasey, ABC News, 2023-11-23
$100M Ukraine sedative pill. Kiev gloom, Ukraine fatigue, the c-word & Trump fear. Finland wall. U⧸1, Alex Christoforou, 2023-11-21
Milei wins Argentina election. Biden, wisdom over age. Ukraine warns Hungary, sanction Russia. U⧸1, Alex Christoforou, 2023-11-20
US Proxy Wars: Ukraine Crumbles, Gaza Burns, as Tensions Rise in Asia-Pacific, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2023-11-18
Culture
The Doors - People Are Strange (Official Audio), The Doors (from their 1967 album "Strange Days"), The Doors, uploaded (for Halloween) 2020-10-31
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