Iran further to BRI, France/Germany engage Russia and UK tosses toys from pram
And the USA exit strategies from Syria and Afghanistan are under way
[Don’t take the map too seriously, its old, and deliberately fuzzy; its a “concept map” but the key pieces are there]
I wish to draw together a number of recent events to highlight the fracturing and reassembly of economic ties along the lines of the Eurasian integration being invested in heavily by China and being facilitated by Russia. I think this is the issue of our age. It was hinted at strongly by statements from the recent G7 meeting and by the newly issued NATO Charter, and was skirted around at the US/Russia summit.
Presidential election in the Islamic Republic of Iran
Elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran have their own character, with the Guardian Council composed of members of the Judiciary approving or denying availability to stand for President. Now, US citizens might jump up and say "not free and fair" but they should also acknowledge that the only way to become a US President is with lots of money and a political machine. These are different methods for candidate selection, or as Boss Tweed expressed it "'I don't care who does the electing as long as I get to do the nominating".
As for Raesi, the Iranian President elect, one can listen to what Prof. Marandi (video, see sources) has to say about him. The West likes to use terms like "hardliner". In truth its seems closer to "constitutionalist". Do you own research, come to your own conclusions. What is obvious, as Marandi so clearly outlines, is that Iran has no reason at all to trust the USA, and as Pepe Escobar notes, these actions have driven Iran into the embrace of both China and Russia. I would call this a major strategic blunder by the previous reality TV host regime.
Post Cold-War Hubris
One of the terms I've heard used more frequently recently is "hubris". This really seems to have been a USA problem since the dissolution of the USSR; we won the Cold War, thus we are the sole super-power and can call all the shots. Andrew Bacevich in a recent interview (video, see sources) identifies the 1991 Gulf War and the bombing campaign in Kosovo as cases in which the USA achieved its military ends with very little or no loss of life, but that in both cases the political objectives were either not achieved or partially achieved. To paraphrase Carl Von Clausewitz, "War is politics by other means". This solved the "Vietnam Syndrome" but lead to a skewed understanding. One could make a reasonable argument that these international actions of death and destruction were for local political consumption and to fund the war machine, and that remote political outcomes were of a lesser concern.
Since the 1980's China has been slowly building itself up and has been assisted in this by US (and other) companies relocating manufacturing to China for reduced wages. This leads to two problems, a reduction in USA manufacturing output and and an increase in China's production and technological capabilities. Some more radical analysts would argue that this was deliberate. The world is not static, and actions have consequences.
Asking for a Reprimand and Looking for Options
Two further recent events highlight this shift in global economic ties, including the very questionable short course of action by a British Captain.
The HMS Defender’s Captain decided, given plenty of other options, to sail within the 12 nautical mile limit off the coast of Crimea right next to Russia's naval base at Sevastapol. The Brits claim "innocent passage" which is just rubbish. Sailing an armed missile frigate close to another country's naval port without asking for permission in advance is deliberately provocative. Even more provocative was the announcement previous to this stupidity of assisting Ukraine in building a naval base in the Azov Sea. This is pure provocation, as it is militarily useless. The Kersh Straight bridge limits the size of vessels passing under it and Russia will never allow this. Notably, the British defense attache was called to the Russian Ministry of Defense for a stern reprimand/warning/browbeating. I would be surprised if it did not follow a recent comment to the US before it diverted two frigates away from the Black Sea as Russia had two Army Groups and three Paratrooper Divisions on the eastern border of the Ukraine: “We cannot guarantee your safety”.
A day or two later Germany's Merkel and France's Marcon called for selective engagement with Russia on mutually beneficial projects. A wedge has not been driven between Russia and China, but cracks are appearing between the EU and USA/UK; i.e NATO.
Exit Strategies
There are delicate plays afoot in other areas. Mercouris recently commented (video, see sources) on the USA not extending waivers for one of its companies to continue stealing oil from Syria’s northeast. Further discussions about "establishing humanitarian corridors" have occurred. It may be that the USA is looking for a face saving way to get out of Syria, and once again abandon the Kurds who seem to never learn the duplicity of the USA. This may lead to the return of these areas to Syria, which means it will regain its major oil and wheat fields, greatly assisting Syria in providing fuel and food to its population and equivalently alleviating Iran and Russia from providing said goods, respectively.
That would be wonderful, but leaves the last sticky problem, Idlib. I am sure that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) with support from Russia can easily retake this province. The real question is what happens with the extremist forces who are there currently. This will be Turkey's decision, as they control the exit route for these forces and supported many of them in the first place (via access or weaponry or whatever). An interesting side note is that this was the chosen end game by Syria and Russia. As each pocket of insurgent resistance was retaken, the militants were given a choice, consistently; confess and join the SAA or we will provide you with passage to Idlib. This was consistently applied policy. Join the ranks, or we bus you to Idlib.
Then we're back into Erdogan's Ottoman Empire II megalomania. Some extremists will no doubt return to Xinjiang and China will be waiting for them. Others may end up in areas of Armenia/Azerbaijan of that recent flare up, in Libya, or other as yet unknown places.
The pieces are moving on the board, as ever.
Sources
Iran's Presidential Elections, The Communiqué with Richard Medhurst
A Sovereign Iran Will Move Closer to Russia-China, Pepe Escobar
These Uppity Brits Need A Slap-like Lesson, MoonOfAlabama
Warmongering British Actions in the Black Sea, Craig Murray
Food For Thought. Andrei Martyanov
Merkel and Macron to propose revival of EU-Russia relations & meeting with Putin – reports, RT, referring to an article by
The Financial Times "Berlin and Paris propose reset for EU relations with Moscow"
KPFA LIVE: Qi's Andrew Bacevich & Philip Maldari
Endgame in Syria as US, Russia, Turkey Negotiate End of Syrian War, Alexander Mercouris