Kazakh Aftermath: Gazing into the Crystal Ball
Kazakh Aftermath: Gazing into the Crystal Ball
Gazing into the Crystal Ball
[Image: Mr. Fish]
Publication date: 2022-01-13
In the previous two articles on the coup attempt in Kazakhstan provided, I hope, sufficient background and sourcing to justify the conclusions reached are provided. The conversion of the civil unrest caused by the LPG price rise was exploited to launch a coup whose actors were largely foreign trained and/or actually foreign, and that they were coordinated by a small group of foreigners which likely included Turkish, British and perhaps even Israeli military intelligence. For the purposes of this article it shall be assumed that this is solid basis for understanding the events.
The CSTO has had a big victory and members of the SCO will be briefed about what happened. Connections to the Maidan and the earlier failed coup in Belarus will be emphasized. Putin's call for increased training of anti-jihadist/extremist forces are likely to be heeded, and rapidly. One can see a number of facets, the issuance of common equipment and common training for elite military units assigned to the counter insurgency role is the simplest. Of equal importance will be the sharing of intelligence and an expanded counter-intelligence focus. The CIA last year complained about having a lack of trained operatives of effective agents in various places. Well, in central Asia its about to get darker for them and other 5-eyes partners.
There will need to be a bit of juggling, or carrot and stick, maneuvering in the 'stans. The problem is likely to be Afghanistan, but with the existing influence over the majority of the 'stans to the north, Iran to the west, and some influence in both India and Pakistan, this should be achievable. I expect contingency plans to just leave landlocked Afghanistan to its own devices and deny them the benefits of integration. These benefits will be placed in front of the Taliban to assist in their clarity of judgement. Its pretty simple really. A) you get billions of dollars in transport and communications and primary industry investment, we buy your minerals and guarantee your security, or B) we sell you fuel and food and buy your rugs, and good luck to you. Choose wisely.
But, all of this central Asian story looks pretty much cooked. The groups trying to create instability there have really screwed up. The integration will continue. There is too much win-win flowing around for it not too, now that the interventionist playbook is known. So, the real focus over the next 10 years will not be there, but in Africa and Central/South America, with the later being front and center in the view of this author. Actually, Indonesia is another nation which will receive little coverage but it likely to achieve much attention by the SCO.
In so much as Russia will play the lead role in security coordination in central and western Asia, it will be China that plays the leading role in courting central and south American, and Pacific, nations to join in trading partnerships with her. The USA's Monroe Doctrine which treats all of the "Western Hemisphere" as its territory has also shown its playbook with coups, revolutions and sanction regimes flowing like red, hot iron "lava down the channel rails" as observed by NYC fire fighters in the basements of the twin towers after the crimes of 9/11.
The collection of international organisations representing the peoples of south of the USA is profligate, but those which actually allow these nations to band together for common benefit are few. Nonetheless, there are countries which wish to withdraw from under the yoke of USA dominance. The "Pink Tide" of a decade ago which seriously worried the USA's Monroe Brigade may well return. Ecuador has been bribed into submission, but others hold out, not the least Venezuela and Bolivia. Presidential elections this year in Brazil may see Lula return to power, and AMLO in Mexico has shown his desire to take a balanced position. Nicaragua's recent elections despite huge influxes of funds to opposition parties from the NED and other political influence organisations have returned the Sandinista's to power. They are not interested in neo-liberalism funded by the IMF, but socialism funded by their own industries and resources.
Recent changes in the Middle East have seen an increase in diplomatic dialogue among local nations as they see the shifting power balance. The situation in Yemen is diabolical. Whenever the USA or the UK start talking about human rights just say "Yemen, Yemen, Yemen, who is selling arms to the Saudis? Yemen, Yemen, ...?". If they start deflecting just say "Gaza, Gaza, Gaza, who is protecting the Zionists from being held accountable for their Apartheid policies in Israel?". You get the idea. The local trouble makers are, of course, Turkey and Israel. How Egypt chooses its course over the next decade will be very interesting. She has been very quiet indeed.
On the geo-economic front, all I see is trouble. I am not an economist, but some things seem obvious. If NATO cannot see a way to provide some of the security assurances which the Russian Federation are demanding and decide to go full idiot, then during the next 5 years, Russia will just say goodbye to Europe. No more gas for you. Work it out yourself. This will be great for USA LNG producers, but will cost Europe dearly. Meanwhile the USA is essentially bankrupting itself by continually spending more than it can afford on its military and printing money like its toilet paper to do so. As mentioned earlier, this will undermine the USD as an exchange standard and its percentage in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights currency basket. If that happens it will make the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis look like a picnic. China and Russia have been buying gold for decades to hedge against this potential catastrophic currency shift. And all of the Bank of International Settlements attempts to integrate Central Bank Digital Currencies as the next part of the panopticon will look like primary school kids trying to make computers with copper wires and batteries.
With all of these potential developments, a combination of threats and disasters, the biggest problem that this analyst sees is a lack of effective bureaucracy in the west. I use the term bureaucracy in a positive sense; government departments providing to its leaders honest and accurate information and descriptions of outcomes for policy changes and implementations. I see little of this evidenced in the west. Additionally, I don't see any evidence of diplomacy by the west either. Its diplomats have succumbed to their own media circus' cool-aid.
On that last point, see the below little article by Prof. Paul Robinson.
Sorry for all the doom and gloom, but eventually the clowns are not funny any more.
Sources
Why Russia Fears NATO, Paul Robinson, Irrussianality, 2022-01-12
Culture
Leonardo’s Bride - Even When I'm Sleeping (Official Video), I Like Your Old Stuff, 2020-07-15
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