[Image: First Aid Kit, a Swedish band. A frame from Culture.]
Published: 2022-09-16
Update 2022-09-17: Another source is added. The Grayzone interviews Scott Ritter.
Update 2022-09-19: A major update is provided, including 6 new sources. The topic is atrocities and propaganda. See below the initial article for “Update: Atrocity Porn”.
A reading (podcast) of this article is available. [The reading does not include the Update: Atrocity Porn, yet.]
Merchandise
The AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) launched a second counter-offensive in Kharkiv after their "main" attack in Kherson oblast. The Lugansk Peoples Republic (LPR) Militia forces and their Russian allied lines had been thinned. The counter-attack punched through their defenses and began to run amok behind their lines.
The preceding attack or "counter-offensive" in Kherson had forced Russia and her local allies to commit the bulk of their reserves to the continued threat in the Kherson oblast. Its a fairly precarious position holding a strip on one side of a very large river. The capital sits at the mouth of that river which runs into the Black Sea, or "Russian Lake" if you like. It, the position and city, is of critical strategic importance. Know clearly that whatever negotiations end this horrid conflict, Kherson City and its oblast will remain firmly in the grasp of Russia.
This initial offensive across the open steppe was, and is, literal insanity. The defenders are dug in, and they have demonstrated for months their logistic strength. Men and machine would have their components fly apart due to relentless drone spotted artillery fire. “Again and again” goes nowhere near describing the relentless artillery bombardment. Nor the terror of the first explosion warning that you have been "spotted".
Further north in Kharkiv their comrades, prepared and trained for months, had smashed threw the poorly defended lines there. How much that assisted these poor soldiers in Kherson only they know, or knew.
For Russia and her Donbas allies the situation in Kharkiv was dire, a debacle. A rescue evacuation operation was begun. Three things were required, to transport the forces to a defensible position, to give them time to "dig in" and prepare that position, and to find out who the fucking hell was to blame for this almighty fuck up!
The scale of the problem and the skill of Russian command are demonstrated by two events which are both signatory, though minor, escalations in Russian military tactics during the conflict.
Russia used some of its advanced precision missiles to destroy a carefully chosen selection of electrical substations in the greater Kharkiv region. These stations link power for people to cook, military commanders to read reports and for trains transporting military equipment and personnel to move. The loss of power heavily limited the mobility of reinforcements to the punched hole, while people lit candles. The lights would be back on in a few days, such was the careful target selection.
The LPR and Russian forces held their positions, encircled or not, as the evacuation mission was launched. They probably lit their candles too.
The retreat, and there is no other word for this than retreat, was orderly. Lives were lost and some equipment too. But, with devastating air cover and most horrifyingly precise artillery cover, they did reach their new positions. A far shorter defensive line was established on the eastern bank of the Oksol river with its waters aiding the position. The machinations of establishing a defensive position begun, digging, placing and camouflaging ammunition, establishing command posts, kitchens and toilets.
The job of establishing who was to blame would, of course, sit with Russian military command and intelligence. This is akin to having the mafia investigate the mafia. However, there are many very serious personnel in Russia's military who will not brook incompetents.
Meanwhile, down on the coastal area of Kherson the AFU continued to attack. One of their barriers was a tributary to the mighty Dniper. Multiple pontoon bridges had been constructed to provide access and logistic support. A major dam that controlled the flow of the waters of this tributary was precision struck to cause a constant but controlled overflow. The river's waters rose. The pontoon bridges were washed away and the city housing the local command and control for the AFU was flooded.
One may argue about whether these attacks on electrical sub-stations or the damn are "war crimes". The electrical grid is dual use and a valid target. The dam is another matter.
What we learn is that the separatists and their Russian ally were in such a "spot of bother" to be driven to take these actions. Here ends the "good news" for the AFU and its political masters.
It was obvious from the outset that launching an offensive across the steppe in Kherson against an entrenched defense would incur huge casualties. It did.
The regaining of 3 000 sq. Km of farmland and many small villages around Kharkiv cost the "enemy" a few hundred troops. The advancing AFU forces were subject to "open field" targeting by ordinance delivered from barrel and aeroplane. Thousands died.
The end result is the separatists and their Russian ally have a shorter and better defensive line for the loss of few hundred casualties and some equipment, while the AFU lost thousands of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of machinery. In the south, it is a pure loss. Many thousands more dead sons and many hundreds of destroyed machinery, sadly for nothing.
I'm with US Marine Core Major General Smedly Butler; "War is a Racket". This conflict should have been stopped before it began, or as soon as possible thereafter. To prove the racket by NATO's arms manufacturers and financiers, ex-UK PM "BoJo" traveled to Kiev to scuttle the early peace negotiations.
Media and Reality
The headlines rang loud in the western propaganda outlets of a heroic victory as senior NATO military officers sat drinking coffee at Ramstein Air Force Base. Weapons will flow!
A few days later the political leadership of the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathered in the ancient "Silk Road" city of Samarkand to decide how best to escape the financial clutches of the USA led "NATO" west.
Tragedies
What Ukraine needs is a negotiated peace, to begin with an immediate ceasefire. The first tragedy is that almost nobody is calling for this process to be begun. Thousands of Ukrainians under arms are dying each week because of this generated conflict.
The second tragedy is the number Europeans who will die of cold or hunger in the coming winter. They should be added to the death toll of this war.
Update: Atrocity Porn
[Image: from Wikipedia. An exhumed body, presumably from the single grave at the bottom of the picture, with people standing around and tape across some trees.]
Reports of "mass graves" and "torture" have flooded western media after the costly but successful operation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in Kharkiv. The atrocity porn is getting a little boring and repetitive.
Following the Russian withdrawal from areas around Kiev the first "mass graves" and "slaughter" case was in Bucha. Many valid questions exist as to who the perpetrators of these crimes were. That people were murdered is incontestable. Who did it is. Why would Russian forces murder people who had been collaborating with them? No independent investigation has been performed to identify what happened in Bucha, and who the culprits were.
It takes little effort, if one seeks independent sources outside of the war propaganda which floods western media, to come to one of two conclusions. Either we don't know, or the motive is with the SBU (Ukrainian Security Services) and other political groups allied with the Ukrainian government. If one takes the latter view, there is a name for this: retribution for being a "traitor". The horrid thing is that these murdered people may well not have taken a side at all, but were merely trying to survive. Whichever position one takes, the peoples of Donbas are predisposed towards the later due to 8 years of shelling by the AFU, targeting market places, schools, hospitals, weddings, funerals, childcare centres, water treatment plants and all manner of war-crimes. These shellings could be called "pre-retribution". It could also be called "collective punishment", which is an international crime outside of war.
In the Kharkiv case there are reports of "mass graves" in a forest. The "mass graves" are actually one grave with 17 bodies. Russia claims that efforts to establish safe corridors to collect dead soldiers were refused by the AFU and thus, the Russian forces had to bury deceased AFU soldiers.
All of the other graves in the forest are single, not mass. Claims of "torture" are by Ukrainian officials or officers. This is a pure repeat of the Bucha situation, allowing the western war propaganda media to spout emotional manipulation. Know that this is what one subjects oneself to should one read/watch these sources.
A Pattern
Another claim echoed in western media, using Ukrainian officials as sources, was a "mass grave" near Mariupol. The claim was thoroughly debunked by Eva Bartlett, who traveled with Roman Kosarev to the cemetery, videoed and photographed the scene and spoke with the grave diggers.
[Image: by Eva K. Bartlett from the interior of the PoW camp. Please see her report on the incident.]
Eva also investigated the horrific incendiary shelling of a prisoner of war camp containing Ukrainian, and more specifically Azov, personnel. Some of these people were giving testimony of orders for war crimes which they were receiving from their Ukrainian command. The site, known to the Ukrainians, was attacked with an incendiary device, seemingly a missile, which burned scores of them alive. Ukraine then accused Russia of attacking this source of criminal evidence against the chain of command of Ukraine to be used in the war crimes tribunals that will come. Western media are happy to "quote" Ukrainian officials no matter how ludicrous their accusations.
Even more unbelievable claims published by western propaganda outlets are the Russian shelling a nuclear power plant which they have occupied since early in the conflict. These accusations are downright insane, but western media publishes the claims irrespective of their incredibility.
Standing in Bucha, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said today, referring to Russian troops, that it was “very hard to talk, when you see what they have done here.”
This quote is before any investigation at all. [NYT]
Consequences
At the end of Dima's (Military Summary channel) most recent video (see sources below) on activity for 2022-09-19, he strays from speaking only of military activity and remarks on a political event in Lugansk People's Republic (LPR). There is overwhelming pressure from the legislature to the executive to organize a referendum for LPR to join the Russian Federation, to be organized immediately.
Why would the legislature be pushing for such a rushed referendum? Obviously they are very confident of the outcome. No time is required to "prepare the population". Dima suggests, and this author agrees, that the recent sudden retreat in Kharkiv has alarmed the populace. They know what will happen if the AFU takes control of areas of the LPR, just as they know what is happening now in "reclaimed" territory in Kharkiv. They are scared. They know what is happening locally more than any media.
If the LPR joins the Russian Federation they would then be afforded Russia's full protection.
Analysis
For Russia this would be both a burden and a benefit. She would need to increase both security and social support. However, the security forces would not then count within the limitation under the Special Military Operation, allowing Russia to re-factor deployment. It is also politically dangerous. During the recent offensive Ukraine demonstrated its western command and control. Should a referendum be held and approved by Russia any attack on LPR becomes an attack on Russia by NATO led forces.
We all know that this conflict is a USA/NATO proxy war on Russia, as stated by USA "weaken Russia" Secretary of Defense Austin. Russia does need to guard against sudden escalation. She seems to have acknowledged the escalation as described by Scott Ritter during the recent Kharkiv offensive (i.e the NATO command and control), and Russia is now recruiting more soldiers. These will take at least 4 months to train. The recruitment target seems to be between 100 000 and 200 000.
Russia's non-reserve army numbers over a million, so she has plenty of forces from which to draw. However, she and other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) are expecting exactly that which Chinese President Xi outlined at the recent SCO meeting: colour revolutions.
Thus, instead of medium scale force redeployment, Russia is not conscripting, but recruiting.
Conclusion
All wars are horrific, civil wars doubly so.
Wars are always fought on two fonts, the kinetic battle and the information battle on the home front. The series of crazy claims by Ukraine about the attacks on the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant) and the attack on the Yelenovka prisoner of war camp/prison are to be expected. The Bucha, and now Izyium, atrocity claims by Ukraine should be taken calmly. The motivations are clear. Impartial investigations are needed. When these do not occur, one may draw some conclusions from this and see the propaganda for that which it is.
The peoples of Donbas are fearful of what will happen to them if they are occupied by the AFU and its political masters.
These are the Ukrainians for which the West does not care.
Sources
Scott Ritter: Why Russia Will Still Win, Despite Ukraine’s Gains, Scott Ritter, Scheer Post, 2022-09-14
Ukraine sliding into a real war, M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, Indian Punchline (his website), 2022-09-14
The Kharkov Counterattack - No Big Success - No Large Defeat, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-14
Biden inflation victory lap. SCO Dedollarisation. Krivoy Rog dam. Lukashenko, EU wood chop. Update 1, Alex Christophorou, Rumble, 2022-09-15
Patrick Lawrence: Atrocity Porn, Patrick Lawrence, ScheerPost, 2022-09-18
Ukraine - Dissecting Some War Propaganda News Items, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-16
Ukraine - Dissecting Some War Propaganda News Items - Addendum, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-17
Here’s what I found at the reported ‘mass grave’ near Mariupol, Eva Bartlett, MRonline, 2022-05-02
Who killed the POWs at Yelenovka? All signs on the ground point to a Ukrainian attack, Eva Bartlett, In Gaza and beyond, 2022-08-02
Ukraine Counteroffensive with Scott Ritter and Richard Medhurst, Richard Medhurst interviews Scott Ritter, Rumble, 2022-09-15
Scott Ritter on Ukraine's counter-offensive, Russia's next move, Max Blumenthal and Aaron Mate interview Scott Ritter, The Grayzone, 2022-09-16
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 19.09.2022, Dima, Military Summary, 2022-09-19
The political, rather than military analysis happens in the last 10 minutes.
MOATS Ep 174 with George Galloway, George Galloway interviews guests including Chris Hedges, MOATS, 2022-09-18
The video is skipped to time offset is 01:50:50
The same video, skipped to the interview with Gonzalo Lira who resides in Kharvkiv
Time Offset: 01:12:59
Russell Bentley - Situation in Donetsk and in Ukraine, Regis Tremblay interviews Russell “Texas” Bentley, Global Conversations, 2022-09-19
Culture
First Aid Kit - Universal Soldier (Buffy-Sainte Marie), First Aid Kit, uploaded 2009-07-15
Thank you, First Aid Kit, for recording your version of this classic song. It is a pleasure to be able to have it compliment this article.
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