Not so Rhetorical, Ritter
Plus some wand waving and observations.
[Gratuitious graphics.]
Published: 2023-12-01
Update: My apologies to the early readers of this article. It was littered with typographic errors.
On a Roll with Ritter
Scott Ritter posses two impressive attributes, his principles and his record. Although the discussion with Napolitano gets heated and although Napolitano is not asking the types of questions which some would like, there are still moments in which Ritter charges on. One senses that he understands the limits of the segment's time and knows that various tangential questions will need answering and absorb quite some of that limited time. But, when given a little room the ex-Weapons Inspector does not mince his words.
The key points which I took from the interview (see sources) were:
Israel did not enter into the almost ended "pause" for the exchange of captives but for the lack of any other option.
Israel is seriously threatened by Hezbollah who have destroyed many, many millions of dollars worth of emplacements and their surveillance systems on top of hundreds of military vehicles including tanks. Israel cannot stop Hezbollah from taking Galilee if they choose.
The IDF have been fought to a costly standstill in Gaza. They withdrew at the point of the "pause" negotiations not so much to allow those discussions to occur, but because they were losing so many soldiers and equipment in northern Gaza.
Israel has already lost the war they declared. Hamas is not so much a limited number of trained fighters as an idea, or resistance. It cannot be defeated. Ritter cites the US's military experience in Iraq and Afghanistan (and one could throw in Vietnam) as examples.
Israel's most prominent US lobby, AIPAC, gloats that it owns US politicians and proudly shows how much money it has used to buy electoral victories. This was Ritter's response to Napolitano's question if Israel was under pressure from the US to X, Y or Z. i.e Nope.
Many of the Israeli civilian victims on October 7th were killed by the IDF because they were caught by surprise and in a panic. This was the result of both catastrophic failure by Israeli leadership and a very well executed attack by Hamas in which they targeted the military infrastructure and communications. The IDF were left with cell phones for comms. It was that bad.
The last point dovetails with comments by Matthew Hoh. The execution of Israeli civilians by Israeli forces is not necessarily a "Hannibal Doctrine" approach. It comes far more naturally from panic and lack of coordination.
The repeated failure of the IDF's ground operations also fits precisely with the recent comment by Macgregor, that western forces have focused on technology and lost the institutional understanding of how to effectively use and coordinate combined arms warfare. Standing in contrast to this is the example given by the Russian Federation's forces for 22 months in Ukraine where they remain largely unchallenged and slowly, carefully taking the territory which they see as valuable. i.e Avdeyevka is about to fall.
Ritter also acknowledges the amalgamation of national governments against Israel. It is not just, as the Irish MEPs Daly and Wallace declared that the West has completely lost all moral authority, but that the "global south" who’ve been on the end of the colonial stick for so long, can sit back and enjoy them squirm.
Ritter observes that Israel has placed its very existence at risk. He notes that the withdrawal of the 70 000 invading settles in the Golan has an economic impact. Israel's economy is suffering due to the genocide they have finally been so public and intense in running. One can easily imagine that the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign which Palestinian activists ran so successfully that AIPAC had to fund (unconstitutional) laws being passed against it in many US states, could rise again in an international setting. This could cripple Israel's economy. There is no reason why Palestine, or tens of other states, as Craig Murray notes, could not begin proceedings under the Genocide Convention. This would limit movement by Israeli officials or they may be arrested to stand trial as they attempted to transit various states.
During a Pepe Escobar visit to Lavelle and Szamuely's "The Gaggle" a week back he noted that as the Organisation of Islamic States and the Arab League delegates began their recent tours in Beijing and then Moscow there was a lack of representation for Turkey and some other key states. He learned that it was Egypt who initially represented them. I've long been puzzled as to why Egypt has been so quiet diplomatically. Their recent direct rejection to Biden of accepting any refugees from Gaza into the Sinai was another diplomatic feather for them. El-Sisi's Arab Republic has a very important role to play in the resolution of Palestine/Israel problem, and I am glad to see Egypt taking their role in regional affairs.
Meanwhile, Israel has decided that their wisest tactic is to return to killing Gazans. We'll find out soon enough if they'll be using US bombs to do it, or if they'll risk the lives of their own soldiers to continue the genocide.
Returning to the Surface
Over in normie land the deep analysis is that a new ceasefire is unlikely. This is probably true, though they can't produce a compelling reason. There are a few different potentially interesting reasons that Mr. "Reading the Wires" hasn't yet conceived.
Namely,
The Israel government changes because of an internal revolt and they need a pause just to work out if they can actually choose any sane path
The US lets Israel know, as it has done to so many other erstwhile allies, that they'll need to sort this one out on their own.
Hezbollah lose their calculated patience and occupy the Golan, while Arab fighters move in via Jordan to form an armed resistance in the West Bank, and the Yemeni Houti's really let rip with their missiles and drones. Then, just for fun, the still going nowhere flotilla from Turkiye could actually get motoring and land supplies in Gaza. At this point, Israel has no other option but to negotiate other than nuking themselves and everyone else with them.
La la Land
Yes, I'm being a bit creative with that last point. But, I would be very surprised if these discussions are not happening around kitchen tables in the region. As mentioned in a recent article, crazy times like this can produce very strange results.
Imagine this: Erdogan wants to be the Islamic Hero and decides to re-inforce Hezbollah in the Golan. He speaks with Assad who guarantees him freedom of movement and limited exchange of supply through Syria to enter Golan. Syria's SAA stay put and have Hezbollah's back in Lebanon, while Russia and Iran have Syria's in Syria. Yes, lots of negotiation and a few too many moving parts, but what you end up with would be:
Turkey and Hezbollah taking the Golan and sitting on it (i.e occupying Israel's defensive works and/or destroying them).
Your move, Israel.
Recall, the Golan is Syria's.
Meanwhile more Arab fighters move into the West Bank and Iran re-supplies the Houthi.
The reason I raise this scenario is because its legal. The Golan is Syria's and everybody in the region knows this. Arab fighters coming to support their brothers in the West Bank could run the same UN Article 51 line as Russia did when they finally got directly involved in Lugansk and Donetsk. Or, everybody can just claim Article 1 of the Genocide convention. Or, both.
I don't know much about this, and if an uninformed person such as myself can see this, then there must be better plans being discussed in Damascus, Ankara, Tehran, Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad. Though, they probably aren't as belligerent.
Twang
Just to score a few cheap points during yesterday’s UN Security Council meeting, Russia’s Ambassador Nebenzya reminded the “West” of their continuous claims of standing for women’s rights and asked, rhetorically how they felt about Palestinian women’s rights, seeing as they’re dying in the thousands with their children.
He landed the punch on the western members of the Security Council with “hypocrites and unprincipled opportunists”, which seemed pretty apt to me. I include Australia in this. We just voted that the Golan is Israel’s.
In response, I think that New Zealand should just hope on a boat and land on Flinders Island and then ask us about that vote. The reason I suggest this is because New Zealand did not vote against the UN General Assemby motion as Australia did.
[Note that Flinders is a largely unknown European maritime hero. He was the first to circumnaivate and thus complete the mapping of the newly found (to the Europeans) Australian continent. His cat was named ‘Trim’.]
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Sources
WATCH: UN Security Council Debates Catastrophe in Gaza, Joe Lauria, Consortium News, 2023-11-30
Israel-Gaza war live updates: Israeli military says it has resumed fighting, accusing Hamas of violating truce moments after deadline passes, ABC News, 2023-12-01
Scott Ritter： From Ceasefire to Crossroads：Decoding Israel's Strategic Choices, Napolitano interviews Ritter, Judging Freedom, 2023-12-01
TG 1376： The Gaggle Talks To Pepe Escobar, Lavelle and Szamuely have a chat with Escobar, The Gaggle, 2023-11-20
Avdeyevka collapse & possible Trump presidency fuels EU panic, The Alexes, The Duran, 2023-11-29
Culture
Copyleft: CC0
Could interest you.
A recent history of The Political Economy of Genocide - Genocide & Economics.
And the real losses in The Ukraine Proxy War on Russia - possibly the last and largest land grab, that being of the Russian State.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/genocide-and-economics
Ritter was so right on—that Israel has lost this so-called war (I insist even prior to October 6) when the intelligent all “woman” Israeli division/branch warned their sexist Zionists commanders of multiple signs of an impending attack. How many independent warnings were giving to Benji, who “intentionally” ignored all of them gong back almost six months now, almost like it was a very well planned “by deception thy shall do war” Mossad op? Not to keep beating this dead horse to death…I agree that not everyone was aware, just Mossad, Benji and all of the general officers.
The other video with Pepe Escobar was great, too. I love that guy. I had to watch every second and tap replay several hundred times right to the very end, but it was so worth it, especially Pepe’s “almost” confirmation that Benjamin Netanyahu understand well in advance of the attack—so to have an excuse to implement the “final solution” protocol on Palestine.