Ongoing Report: Escalation of Conflict on the Line of Contact in Eastern Ukraine
Escalation of Conflict on the Line of Contact in Eastern Ukraine
Publication date: 2022-02-20
Update 2022-02-21: A brief analysis of the OSCE/SMM time series data has been added.
Update 2022-02-22: The political developments from Russia are of such magnitude that they warrant an entirely different article. Finally, new data has been issued by the OSCE’s SMM (god bless ‘em) and both data graphs, maps and analysis have been updated.
Update 2022-02-23: Latest data and analysis has been added. Added sources from the UN validate the 80% deaths on LPR+DPR side, and a new report shows the “Kindergarten” attack was Ukrainian propaganda. See Sources at the end. Also, a Culture section has been added.
Update 2022-02-25: A short paragraph has been added under Commentary for today’s date linking to the SMM’s latest report, a spot report. I am reassured that all of their staff are accounted for.
Data
The only even partially independent data source I can identify is the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine. Their daily reports are the single source for this data section. The graphs on volume of ceasefire violations, split between explosions only and the total, are also separated between the two eastern regions, also with a total. They are all regularly updated. Non-explosive events are a wide variety from small weapons fire, to heavier weapons, like machine guns, to the launching of flares.
Each SMM report also includes a map of the locations of the ceasefire violations. These will be amalgamated into a merged weekly graph, but built day by day.
The SMM data is sort-of-deliberately muddy. From it you can tell the volume of activity and rough locations, but not who is doing what or what percentage is attributable to either side. Just accept it. Being an independent monitoring mission is downright difficult.
Violation Numbers
[Image: Note “1” is Februrary 9th. “2” is the 10th etc.. “14” is just before Russia begins its “Special Military Operation” and detailed OSCE reports become unavailable as they withdraw their observers.]
Analysis
2022-02-22
The latest data shows a reduction in explosions in the Donetsk region, but an increase in the Lugansk region.
2022-02-21
While the graph appears to show a continued escalation, it does not. The figures include two days (that with the blank). The numbers represent a continuation, or even a small reduction, in shelling. Nonetheless, 1000 shells a day are being fired along the contact line, and that is not “low activity”.
2022-02-19
This is a very simple graph displaying a sudden, rapid rise in the use of explosive ordinance, dominantly in the Lugansk region. Where exactly, is examined under the maps below.
Analysis
2022-02-22
The total stats echo the conclusions of the “explosions only” events, with the major difference being that almost all events in the Lugansk region were explosive rather than the more common mixture of events.
2022-02-21
As above, the newest data point is a combined two day total. The level of military activity is being maintained, sad though that is. There is an increase in the Donetsk region which is considered in the map below. There are two increased “hot spots”, one east of Mauripol and the other west of Donetsk city.
2022-02-19
On day 3, which is reporting published on the 12th which means events occurring on the 11th, there is a dramatic rise predominantly in non-explosive events in the Donetsk region. This, essentially, is a large amount of gun fire.
We see a shift between day 4 and day 6 of “gun fire” (non-explosive) events moving from the Lugansk region to Donetsk. Following a lull on days 7 and 8, the escalation begins, but switching back to more activity in Lugansk.
These identifications of “intensity of events” moving back and forth between the regions help one see probing by the attacking forces moving across the front lines. For that earlier day 4 to 6 shift, it may have been just training exercises. One has to read all of the gory details of the SMM daily reports to tease out details.
Violation Locations
Week ending 2022-02-26
Analysis
2022-02-22
The changes in the intensity of shelling with reductions in Donetsk and increase in Lugansk are also show on the map of activity locations.
2022-02-21
Following the previously outlined (see below) key areas:
A dramatic increase in activity to the east of Mauripol.
Activity around Donetsk is more geographically widespread and more focussed on the contact line itself. There is a single area to the west of Donetsk on the contact line which has significant activity.
Around Pospana activity continues, but now with more shelling from LPR being delivered to the other side.
The Lugansk city area seems quite similar, which is to say focused and intense.
A new hotspot has emerged between Donetsk and Popasna, with intense shelling from DPR+LPR being delivered to the Ukrainian side. The breakaway republics must have felt there was a very significant threat there.
It seems as though return artillery/mortar fire from LPR+DPR has increased over the two day period while the total activity has remained roughly the same.
Week ending 2022-02-19
Read this left to right and bottom to top for data published on 14th (including numbers from the preceding day) to 19th, inclusive. The progression shows the changes in locations of activity, but not really the intensity. OSCE intensity measures are a number of events, with an exploding shell having equivalency to a gun shot. These are palpably not equivalent. Again, accept what you get.
If you obtain the full reports with their higher resolution maps, locations with a blue square in the middle indicate where explosions have occurred, likely indicating shelling.
Analysis
The area on the south coast to the east of Mauripol (the black dot in the SW corner of the map) shows constant activity across the period. It was near Mauripol that reporters recorded for western viewers pictures of a grandmother being “trained” by members of the Azov Regiment.
On the activity maps three key areas on the rest of the front can be identified:
Three zones around Donetsk: a relatively straight contact line to the south, and areas to the west and north.
The second key area is found by travelling directly west from Luhansk until you hit the contact line. On the nationalist side is the City of Popasna (not shown on map) less than 10 Km from the line, and on the LPR side is Kadivka, about 20 Km from the line. This is the area with the largest (most widespread) yellow markings on the most recent activity map.
The third significant zone is that to the north and northeast of Lugansk.
Over the period depicted in the activity maps we see:
For the Donetsk area, a building activity to its west and north/northwest, and then suddenly all down the southern line.
For Popasna/Kadivka, a constant growth of activity. This is a very “hot” location, but the inbound shelling to LPR is quite spread out, or dispersed.
For Lugansk, the area to its northeast which is the crucial river crossing, is “hot” and concentrated. The “border” to the north of Lugansk is pretty much on the critically important Donets river, which runs roughly west to east flowing into Russia.
Feedback/Questions
If you would like the spreadsheet underlying the graphs above, or have questions, please contact the author via @yesxorno on Twitter.
The author possess a degree in science and is trained in data analysis. The author has no military training.
Caveat / Initial Introduction
(This introductory section has been moved down in the article to let the data section take the upper focus. It is unchanged).
This is not an article, but an ongoing report providing data and varied commentary.
No "western media sources" will be provided because they have been escalating this conflict for over 11 months and all the USA's claims of threats, false flags and invasions have been entirely evidence free. Non-western sources have their biases too, and I trust my readership to read between the lines and make their own judgments. A description will be provided of non-obvious biases for cited sources as I see them.
If you believe the western media narrative, this report is probably not for you. However, if you wish to gain a more nuanced understanding of the events unfolding, particularly on the ground, I hope this growing report will assist. Some material is offered. Find your own sources, understand their biases, ask questions, and come to your own conclusions.
Commentary
2022-02-25
The latest report from the SMM provides some overview of recent activity, and notes that many of their automated reporting systems are no longer operational. They also report that all staff are accounted for, which this author is very glad to hear. The lack of many of their reporting systems seems to be having an impact on their reporting metrics, and we do not have the detailed numerical data provided over the recent years.
2022-02-23
A topic which has not received any attention is the ongoing role of the OSCE’s SMM on the contact-line in eastern Ukraine when (not if) Russian peacekeeping forces enter LPR+DPR. On the one hand they are helpful in providing independent data, but one the other if Russia does follow through on recognizing the borders of the two oblasts, this leads Russia to need to push Ukrainian forces out of those regions. Actions like this will alarm the west further, if that’s even possible, and the SMM’s reporting will be politically difficult for Russia. There are many little thorns like this in the months ahead. Russia’s biggest political restriction seems to be that of maintaining her alliance with China, rather than the reactionary and largely inconsequential actions and rhetoric being issued by “the West”. The restrictions of alliance will curtail Russia’s ability to do things like rid Mauripol of the neo-Nazi’s that occupy it, and more Ukrainian aligned forces in Kharkiv which are oppressing the local population to Lugansk’s north. All of these tangled issues will come into and out of focus over the coming weeks and months and inform us of the political boundaries of the China/Russia alliance.
Max Blumenthal, Editor of The Grayzone, interviews Russel Bentley for a discussion of one and a half hours covering both recent events and those back to the early phases of the conflict between Kyiv and Ukraine’s dominantly Russian speaking regions. Of particular interest is their revisit to the 2014 massacre in Odessa and ex-Georgian President Saakashvili’s role in the oblast.
Russia recognizes Donbas w/Donetsk-based Russell Bentley, Max Blumenthal intervi
ews Russle "Texas" Bentley, The Grayzone, 2022-02-22
2022-02-22
First Report From Donetsk - Independence Declared - Texas Bentley, Regis Tremblay interviews Bentley, Global Conversations, 2022-02-22
(Recall Russel Bentley’s biases)
Garland Nixon - First Take From the USA on Putin's Speech, Regis Tremblay interviews Garland Nixon, Global Conversations, 2022-02-22
2022-02-20
Introduction
Be clear that following the neo-Nazi/fascist/racist assisted coup instigated by the USA in 2014, Ukrainian national forces and ultra-nationalist militias attempted to disarm the two breakaway republics in the east. The Lugansk and Donetsk (self-declared) Peoples Republics (LPR+DPR) chose to resist, fearing what would happen once only the attackers were armed. During 2014 and 2015, with tactical and military hardware assistance from the Russian Federation, LPR+DPR held their ground. During these first stages of the civil war, for that is what it is, LPR+DPR suffered heavy casualties, both military and civilian, while the Ukrainian+Paramilitary forces suffered military defeats. Of course, civilians died on both sides of the lines of battles. Civilians always suffer the most in war. To date, the vast majority of civilian casualties (numbers vary but 80% seems about right) have occurred in LPR+DPR. They are defending themselves. Update: the number is 81.4% for the period of 2018 to 2021 according to a report by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human rights:
[Image: a table of statistics from the UN report. Thanks to Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) for finding and highlighting the statistics.]
Since the 2014 (revised in 2015) Minsk Accords the changing government in Kyiv has consistently refused to implement their commitments under U.N. Security Council resolution 2202, unanimously approved, known as the Minsk Accords. Since 2022-02-15 shelling has increased across the line of contact, but predominantly incoming on LPR+DPR. Civilian infrastructure including a power plant and 2 water pumping stations (which provide water to 1 million people) have already been targeted. The damage to water pumping stations is particularly troubling as it affects other important civilian infrastructure like hospitals, as highlighted by a Red Cross spokeswoman.
LPR+DPR have issued an evacuation of elderly, children and their mothers, and issued a full mobilization, calling for every able bodied man aged 18 to 55 to enlist. A LPR+DPR estimated maximum volume of evacuees is 700 000. Currently, 53 000 (as of 2022-02-21 03:10 CET) are reported to have evacuated to Russia. Rostov is currently accepting refugees with 11 other Russian provinces having committed to provide temporary assistance.
Belorussian President Lukashenko has declared the Russian Federation's First Guards Tank Army to stay in Belarus and "continue" their exercises beyond those planned to end today (20th), obviously with Russia's approval.
The fog of war has descended. Take the kindergarten in a government controlled area which was damaged, and highlighted on western media. Look at the hole in the wall. Something has pierced it horizontally. It seems unlikely that this is a mortar or artillery shell from LPR+DPR territory by pure geometry. There will be mis/dis-information everywhere, and plenty of propaganda too. Think for yourselves, readers, especially when the story is designed to pull your heart strings. Update: an ex-military professional with legal training, Don Gav, has concluded that the no explosives (mortars, shells etc.) were involved and that most likely it was “an excavator, probably equipped with a pneumatic drill attachment”. Of interesting note is that Bellingcat, who played a role in promoting now debunked chemical weapons attacks in Syria, also tried to legitimize this story. This, to my mind, adds even further legitimacy to Gav’s conclusions drawn purely mechanical/physical considerations. Indeed, the whole thing echoes Prof. Postel’s commentary based on the same principles for early allegations of chemical weapons attacks in Syria. [Thanks to Natylie Baldwin for identifying and highlighting Don Gav’s report.]
Note that up to now, numbers of fatalities are very light. This indicates an attack/response pattern designed to create an event but one which thankfully can be de-escalated. Once hundreds of people start dying, continued escalation is very difficult to stop. Let us hope calmer heads prevail and that an escalated conflict can be avoided.
It is certainly true that the politicians at the Munich Security Conference are not raising their voices to stop this. We are well beyond calling for calm, or grandstanding speeches; the shells are flying.
Remember who is attacking and who is defending. Expect this commentary section to be far briefer in future. The primary updates will be to Data and Commentary Sources sections.
Independent Sources
On the Eve of War - A report from Moscow, Regis Tremblay interviews Vladimir Kozen, Global Conversations, 2022-02-19
Ukraine - Who Is Firing At Whom And Who Is Lying About It?, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-02-20
From the Front - The War has started - Evacuations, Drafting Men, Regis Tremblay interviews Russel "Texas" Bentley, Global Conversations, 2022-02-19
Note: Russel is completely partisan, and has political views some of which I detest. However, he fought in the 2014/2015 campaigns in DPR and has "militia" level military expertise. He is also an "information warrior", meaning he is producing propaganda/counter-propaganda (call it what you like) for the "separatists". Nonetheless, he is an on-the-ground observer with some military knowledge and can provide confirmation of reports. Use your brain.
Donbass Shelling Continues, Russia Deploys to Belarus, Western Leaders Make Speeches in Munich, Alexander Mercouris, his youtube channel, 2022-02-20
Ep. 5672 - Jack Matlock on the Predictable and Avoidable Crisis Over Ukraine - 2/18/22, Scott Horton interviews Jack Matlock, Scott Horton Show, published 2022-02-20
Audio: https://dissentradio.com/radio/22_02_18_matlock.mp3
PETROVSKY FIRE FIGHT 20 FEB 17:30 / БИТВА В ПЕТРОВСКОМ РАЙОНЕ 20.02.2022 17:30, Russel Bentely, his youtube channel, 2022-02-20
Bentley reports plainly from his backyard, 8 Km east of the contact line on the western outskirts of Donetsk.
Broadcasts
Russia Today, hourly news broadcasts
https://rt.com/on-air
Note: Of course, all questions are framed from Russia's perspective. Studio guests are often extremely partisan etc.. However, they do have reporters on the ground in LPR+DPR and their reports can be useful. I tend to ignore all the "human interest" stories. Note numbers and reports of events.
Al Jazeera and France 24 seem to sucked into the western orbit and provide no independent on the ground reporting, just their slant on statements by idle politicians or repeating what Kyiv is saying. The Turks have already provided drones to the Ukrainian national forces and are playing Erodgan's game of influence balancing, so I dont expect much there. Sadly, my hope for a more balanced approach by Germany's DW was in vain. Their "on the ground" reporter in Kyiv is reporting NATO talking points, though somewhat in line with Germany's role with the Normandy Format. Perhaps, Latin American channels ...
If any reader identifies independent source(s) of on the ground reporting, please let me know via @yesxorno on Twitter, and I will assess and update.
Sources
Report from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on Civilian Casualties across the conflict in eastern Ukraine, UN, 2022-01-27
Nursery school bombing photographs look like a false flag attack – by Ukraine, Don Gav, Intellinews, 2022-02-21
Culture
Times they are a changin' - Eddie Vedder, Eddie Vedder solo in support of a Ralph Nader electoral race, arcotps youtube channel, uploaded 2012-02-11
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