Open Door Policy: A Collapse of Rhetoric
A Collapse of Rhetoric
[Image: Open Door Policy, by the author. I know its terrible; I was channeling my inner XKCD. Sorry.]
Publication date: 2022-02-15
Update 2022-02-16: Added interview of Aaron Maté by Jimmy Dore, and an 42 minute live interview between Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN and The Grayzone’s Blumenthal and Maté which covers many issues presented in this or recent articles. Also added the as yet incomplete transcript of the first meeting between Russian President Putin and new German Federal Chancellor Scholz.
Developments
On Thursday 10th February various USA media outlets begin reporting evidence free assertions that Russia will invade Ukraine "before the end of the Olympics" with the 16th being a key date. Jake Sullivan was prominent in the delivery of these proclamations.
On the next day, Friday 11th, two event clusters occur. The first is Defense spokesperson John Kirby informing the media in a written statement that the USA is withdrawing military trainers from Ukraine, as reported by ABC News:
The Pentagon also announced that it was withdrawing 160 soldiers from the Florida National Guard, among the only U.S. military presence in the country.
[Emphasis added].
ABC News continues, noting that the State Department is warning USA citizens to leave Ukraine in 24 to 48 hours, and the USA Embassy (presumably in Kyiv) announces that all but non-essential staff are being removed, or relocating to the western city of Lvov.
On Saturday Feb 12th we learn from the Kremlin that the Whitehouse requested an earlier scheduling of a call planned for Monday between Presidents Putin and Biden to be on the Saturday instead. Additionally, we learn that many other USA officials attempted to contact their Russian counterparts "yesterday and today". Thus, these rescheduling efforts began on Friday, while all of these "withdrawal" type messages are being issued by USA officials.
Thus, we have a two day campaign on Thursday and Friday of first more "imminent invasion" and then "withdrawal" which sets a media tone for the weekend. The Kremlin spokesperson who provided the information about the call between the USA and Russian Presidents described the call as "business like".
Despite requests by Ukrainian President Zelensky asking the USA and its media to calm down with the "imminent" invasion rhetoric as it is causing panic in Ukraine, the Mighty Wurlitzer went about its normal business. Zelensky was quoted as saying, on the 12th:
I think there's too much out there about a full-scale war from Russia, and people are even naming dates. The best friend for our enemies is panic in our country, and all this information only creates panic, it doesn't help us.
He is not speaking alone. His Defence Minister and a member of their security council were delivering statements similar of "not much has changed, we don't see any new threat".
One can read a plethora of opinion articles by "analysts" piling on to the "imminent" bandwagon and raising the temperature. Older, calmer and wiser council or opinion, often based on historical analysis, is available.
[Update 2022-04-26]
Unfortunately, information was hidden. It is now clearer. By Jacques Baud:
Ukrainian forces … were regrouped in the south of the country, in preparation for their offensive, the initial phase of which began on February 16th. This confirms that Russia was only reacting to a situation initiated by the West …
[End update.]
Rhetoric
The recent alarmist rhetoric, including the "withdrawal" line, seems to run counter to the "principles" which the USA/NATO alliance was previously pushing. If one cares about "preserving democracy" why run away when the chips are supposedly down?
Firstly, it doesn't really matter. It sends a very "loud and clear" message to Ukraine and President Zelensky: we're all behind you, by several hundred miles, and you can fight to the last western Ukrainian.
This is a costly message to send. What could motivate it?
As is always the case, foreign relations are never totally disconnected from domestic politics, and Special Counsel Durham was about to deliver in his clever way allegations that Jake Sullivan had a deep hand in the Clinton machine's efforts to beat up Russiagate and particularly in the illegal spying on candidate and then President-Elect Trump. This domestic challenge was "released" on Friday 11th.
Well, how about that?
After Effects
There has been some speculation that the "false flag" narrative recently rolled out by USA officials was actually an effort to lay the ground for the USA itself invoking such plans to somehow entrap Russia. While there may be some plausibility to these speculations, it seems a bit weak.
First and foremost, the cat is out of the bag. False flag operations, of which there have been many, work so much better when people are less likely to investigate. If something very strange goes down around the line of contact in Ukraine, then it will be heavily investigated, not just by the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission (SMM), but by any journalist with credibility.
To run an effective false flag operation you need control over the ground on which it is to be created. Any group of intelligence operatives trying to do this in Donbas will be under great difficulty as one can be sure that Russia is well aware of the threat and will have strategies in place to counter it.
Secondly, the SMM to Ukraine is still there and are doing their very best in difficult circumstances to provide independent "no finger pointing" data on what is happening with ceasefire violations around the line of contact. Thus, if you're going to run an effective false flag operation involving some big boom, it better show up on the SMM reports. As Anatol Lieven reports, because of the recent withdrawal of diplomatic staff it has had consequences in participation on the mission:
The United States, Canada, and Britain — the countries that have been among the loudest in their calls for a strong line against Russia — have withdrawn their military and civilian officials from the OSCE mission monitoring the ceasefire line between Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatist forces in the Donbas.
This may make it more difficult to introduce partisan narratives into the SMM's reporting, or to align a false flag event with events reported by the SMM to provide it legitimacy.
The motivation summary seems to be a domestically driven USA emergency to divert attention from an upcoming political hot potato. However, this has clarified to Ukraine where loyalties lie, and made things even more difficult for any dastardly plans to run false flag operations.
Whatever the Whitehouse’s plans are, not many seem to be running smoothly. On a more amusing front the alternative media now get to have a field day with all of the latest round of evidence free war mongering, this time with a specific date. Both the USA foreign policy establishment and their MICIMATT allies are failing upwards again.
It would be funny if it were not for that the fact that there is a civil war going on in the Ukraine, and that the USA’s efforts are not to resolve the problem but escalate tensions as a diversion from their own political problems.
Sources
Putin could attack Ukraine on Feb. 16, Biden told allies, ALEXANDER WARD and QUINT FORGEY, Politico, 2022-02-11
U.S. removing about 150 military trainers from Ukraine, Idrees Ali, Reuters, 2022-02-12
'Past time' to leave: US evacuates diplomats, troops from Ukraine amid 'war zone' warnings, Conor Finnegan and Luis Martinez, ABC News (USA), 2022-02-12
Briefing by Aide to the President Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joseph Biden, Kremlin, 2022-02-12
Today’s Crisis Over Ukraine Was Predictable and Avoidable, former USA senior diplomat Matt F. Matlock, Jr., AntiWar, 2022-02-15
The Ultimate End of NATO, Scott Ritter, Consortium News, 2022-02-11
Bombshell: Clinton Campaign Paid Tech Company To ‘Infiltrate’ Trump Tower, White House Servers, Durham Says, Ryan Saavedra, Daily Wire, 2022-02-13
READ THE FILING HERE: Durham’s latest report released in full, detailing allegations of Clinton team spying on Trump, DML News App, DML, 2022-02-14
Why are we evacuating diplomats from Ukraine?, Anatol Lieven, Responsible Statescraft, 2022-02-14
The Big White House Plans Behind Its 'Russian Invasion' Scam, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-02-15
Talks with Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz, Kremlin, 2022-02-15
(Note the Kremlin transcript is incomplete as of 2022-02-16 08:35 CET. Unsurprisingly, the initial words are very warm. It is worth noting that Putin speaks fluent German. Perhaps part of the meeting occurred purely one-on-one.).
The Military Situation in the Ukraine—An Update, Jacques Baud, The Postil Magazine, 2022-04-11
Hillary Spied On Trump! Says BIDEN’S Justice Department, Dore interviews Aaron Maté on the Durham reveal, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2022-02-15
Russian UN Ambassador on NATO-Ukraine escalation, The Grayzone interview Dmitry Polyanskiy (Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN) live, The Grayzone, 2022-02-14
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