Political Economy as a Salvation : Spotting a moment before it passes [updated]
Spotting a moment before it passes
Publication date: 2021-08-19
Update: 20121-11-29. Culture section added.
Moments in time occur in which a confluence of events and usually a crisis all combine to force a sudden change of action. In the aftermath there is an opportunity for reflection, and if blessed, to gain a sliver of wisdom.
The US/NATO Withdrawal from Afghanistan
To say that the withdrawal process has been chaotic is a gross understatement. Many a commentator has been criticising USA President Biden's recent speech instead of criticizing his script writers, or critiquing the methodology of USA politics. Who cares about the crappy White House "communications department"? Some group chose USA withdrawal and for this they should be commended. Biden said he chooses not to hand this pin-pulled hand-grenade onto the next administration. His analysis is not only correct, but wise.
The entire Afghanistan invasion pretext was bunk. Even if you accept that "harboring terrorists" justifies an invasion, the core objective of denying al-Qaeda efficacy was achieved in 6 months. The next 19 years are lies and a wealth transfer to the military contractors, weapons producers or otherwise, and an attempt to obtain resource wealth and geopolitical influence via a military boondoggle and bribery.
Was the USA 20 year, and USA/NATO 15 year "campaign" in Afghanistan a success? The military contractors got money, and quite a few generals got stars. Were the "rights of women" advanced beyond that which the socialist government with USSR support achieved in the 1970's? Success is metric dependent. Its like USA elections; let me choose the candidates (metrics) and I dont care who votes (the numbers), to paraphrase Boss Tweed.
Biden asks why should "USA soldiers fight in a civil war that Afghans wont"? If the locals wont fight, it is not a civil war, Joseph. It is an imposed war. They like the wages but not the death risk. Perhaps your generals should bone up on Pashtunwali.
Political Economics
In "western" societies elections are held for positions in the legislature, and possibly the tip of the executive branch of government. Under the legislature are unelected advisors and lobbyists, and under the executive are an unelected bureaucracy. Generally the executive chooses which possible violations of law, enacted by the legislature, are prosecuted through the third branch, the officers to and the courts of the judiciary.
"Political Economics" is the more honest, modern term for "Politics". The legislature controls taxes and tariffs. It controls prices in important markets, like oil and food, and extracts your income. The legislature funds the executive. The legislature, or"politics", is the logistics of economics, hence “Political Economics”.
The Cost of War
I take the figure of 2 Trillion USD spent by the USA government on the Afghan "campaign" over the almost 20 year period as a useful figure. That means that the USA for 20 years spent:
274 million dollars every single day
on the military and their contractors, or their remote government. This fiat money is not the real calculation. That calculation is of broken limbs, broken minds, broken dreams and broken families in NATO nations and Afghanistan, not to mention broken buildings and bridges.
Remedial School
I remember most clearly helping an infant school student with a reading difficulty. Messages had been delivered by the school of the student's sub-standard skills needing attention. It took a calm space, an open environment, a little nice weather, and some trust. We sat together, and I asked the student to read, paying relaxed attention to the text and their reading. It became immediately clear that the student was skipping letters as they read. The teachers did not have time to sit down and pay close enough attention to see the problem. The joy of tutoring is being able to give the simplest of guidance and feel rewards reaped by the pupil: being able to read.
The USA has a remedial student problem. Its didactic ideological stance, belligerence, and economic oppression are now leading it into a wasteland of domestic dysfunction. Having their "Homeland Security" department declare local extremists as the problem is missing the forest for the trees. This blame game deflection is rife, and supported by their entrenched industry supported media. Take "RussiaGate" as a signature example of media complicity in political narrative management. The current “the withdrawal is a catstrophe, what about the women!” blame-game misdirection is tragically myopic and horrifically misguided.
The problems are not the gun toting hillbillies, the peace-nik leftists, BLM, antifa, the intellectually challenged leadership or the police.
The problem is the political economy itself.
Remediation
Taking a broad sweep of the "War on Terror" the USA with or without allies or UN Security Council approval has involved itself in aggressive (invasion) military campaigns in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, with other military actions in African countries. There have been “local” coups, failed or successful, in Venezuala, Brazil, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Bolivia, at least. The result of the military adventurism has been the enrichment of military contractors, elevation of military officers and an increase in turmoil, refugees and death. At home, a parallel stagnation in real wages, continued collapse in infrastructure and a polarization of politics further pollutes a still pond.
As the USA undermined the "pink tide" in South America (Lula, Chavez, Morales), China was "no bullets" building itself into an economic powerhouse. Obama’s “pivot to Asia” (2009) was delayed by the myriad conflicts which bogged the USA’s military complex. The USA’s NATO expansion towards Georgia (2008) and the Ukraine (2014) collided with Russian resistance to further encroachment and their development of hyper-sonic missiles. Russia’s invitation by Syria (2015) to the Syrian proxy war upset the USA+Allies apple cart of fundamentalist insurgents that they’d be running since funding the Mudjahedin in 1979, which later became the Taliban. (The USA is still protecting the extremists in Idlib province in north western Syria. Why is nobody talking about “womens’ rights” there?)
The exit chaos from Afghanistan is a microcosm of a wider cacophony of feckless foreign policy and corrupt military adventurism.
Taking Stock
Now is a moment for the people of the USA to get involved in politics and their nation’s political economy. Some are calling for the “generals to be held accountable”. This might feel good, but is short sighted. The generals did what they have been trained to do, feed the contractors. The next misguided opportunity is to look at “tactics”. What did we do wrong on the operational level? The real questions lie at the strategic level. Should we be doing this?
Controlling the Political Economy
Aaron Schwatz asked Lawrence Lessig, without fixing "money in politics" how can any other problem be solved (see sources). The Afghans are enacting Aaron's words and solving their own “money in politics” problem, Afghan style. Over tea, they dont like foreign rulers. Corrupt, foreign controlled rulers are a Khalashnikov matter.
Dear "America" please rebuild your export production economy. It needs to replace your destruction economy. Go back to innovation. Its what you do. Kick out the regime-change idiots. Build trade networks, like the China-Russia alliance are doing.
You’ll need money for this. Thankfully, there is a big bucket of 50% of your discretionary spending waiting to be reallocated.
Sources
President Biden Remarks on Afghanistan Withdrawal Decision, C-SPAN, 2021-08-16
All Reports, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
$10,000 Invested in Defense Stocks When Afghanistan War Began Now Worth Almost $100,000, Jon Schwarz, The Intercept, 2021-08-16
Under the influence, Jason Kelly, UCHICAGO MAGAZINE, 2015 January/February
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Back with a Bang, Pepe Escobar, Unz Review, 2021-08-16
U.S. COSTS TO DATE FOR THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, 2001-2021, Cost of War Project, Watson Institute at Brown University, 2021-04-15
Domestic Violent Extremism Poses Heightened Threat in 2021, USA Department of Homeland Security, 2021-03-17
For most U.S. workers, real wages have barely budged in decades, Drew DeSilver, Pew Research Center, 2018-08-07
Defense Primer: Hypersonic Boost-Glide Weapons, Congressional Research Service, 2021-06-08
What we need to do post-Afghanistan, but won’t, Paul Robinson, Irrussianality, 2021-08-18
Lawrence Lessig: The unstoppable walk to political reform, Lawrence Lessig, TED, 2014
Culture
Fixing A Hole (Remastered 2009), From the album “Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band” released in 1967, The Beatles youtube channel, uploaded 2018-06-19