Reality and Trump's First Days

including Alastair Crooke and the "competency crisis"

[Gaza. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem re-used from Antiwar.]

Published: 2025-01-23

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Trump Threatens Russia With More Sanctions If Putin Doesn't Make a Deal To End Ukraine War; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-22

US President Trump re-expressed his desire to conclude the NATO war with Russia in Ukraine and threatened Russian President Putin with sanctions and tariffs. No informed analyst could believe that the economic threat will have significant effect on negotiations with Russia. It is, thus, for domestic consumption.

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Trump Storms Out the Gate, But Already Falters on Ukraine ; Simplicius; Simplicius; 2025-01-22

A Ukrainian journalist who allegedly met with Washington Post staff reported that a full reboot was in order on Ukraine:

“Alarming: The Pentagon has fired and suspended everyone who was responsible for Ukraine and aid to it. The US Department of Defense is in a complete reboot”

[emphasis mine]

Simplicius continues by citing various recent statements in a survey of the changing narrative environment. Perhaps the most interesting was by "the head of Germany's military task force on assistance for Ukraine, Major General Christian Freuding" who provided some reality on the disparity Ukraine/NATO and Russia’s military production and force deployment.

• "Russia now builds 3,000 UMPK glide bombs per month, and ‘procures’ 3.7M artillery shells per year"

• "the current [Russian] 600k+ force is up to 4.5 times larger than Russia’s initial force. Doing the math, 600k is 4.5 times more than 133,000—or using his 4x number we can say 150,000"

Simplicius takes this to reinforce his analysis early in the war that Russia's forces were around this 150 K mark rather than the 250-400 K blurbed in the Western press at the time. This explained the withdrawals from Kharkiv and Kherson a few months into the conflict. This is merely additional confirmation of old news, but does reinforce the changes in allowed Western narrative.

This is an ongoing change begun late last year with admissions of the failure of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk and the disaster for Ukraine in the Donbas. Those were followed more recently by the article in Time magazine mentioned in this newsletter’s previous article.

Ritter does not agree with the ‘complete reboot’ idea.

Scott Ritter : [ScottRitter.com] - Can Ukraine Survive Trump?; Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom; Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom; 2025-01-22

• Offset [00:22:52] for Napolitano’s question and Ritter’s response.

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Zelensky Says US Troops Must Be Deployed To Ukraine for Peace Deal; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-22

Zelenskyy's delusion crosses the heliopause into territory only reached by the most venerable of our space explorers.

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Zelenski, Having Failed, Blames His Sponsors; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-01-22

Dead set against any peace negotiations Zelenski's demands are getting more shrill by the day.

Next to immediate NATO membership he now demands a peacekeeping force that does not exist:

[skip extended quote]

He also wants U.S. forces to be part of it.

There is no chance of getting either.

Zelenski is done with and he knows it. It is unlikely that he, in three month or so, will still be in place.

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Accepting the Truth About Ukrainian Casualties is the Only Real Path to Peace; Michael Vlahos; Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia; 2025-01-22

Michael Vlahos' article reminds us that although all wars end, that reaching a peace requires negotiation and compromise and most importantly that all belligerents must want the war to end. [emphasis his]

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The Genocide: Days 472 and 473

Israel Advances Into South Lebanon City, Continues to Destroy Homes; Jason Ditz; Antiwar; 2025-01-21

Palestinians Dig 68 More Bodies Out of Gaza Rubble, Raising Death Toll; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-21

Israel Launches Major Offensive in West Bank Days After Gaza Ceasefire; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-21

Israel 'Committed' to Ceasefire But Continues Burning South Lebanon Homes; Jason Ditz; Antiwar; 2025-01-22

Gaza Death Toll Rises as More Bodies Are Dug Out of the Rubble; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-22

The death toll rose in Gaza because Palestinians were not be bombed while excavating their dead relatives. The Zionist state militia accelerated their murders of Palestinians in the Palestinian Occupied Territory of the West Bank. It also continued to annex land in southern Lebanon, destroying people's property (homes) in the process.

The ceasefire has produced positive results for Israel. Hezbollah and Ansarallah are no longer attacking Israel.

Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Can Lasting Peace Be Achieved in the Middle East?; Dialogue Works; Dialogue Works; 2025-01-22

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Trump Says He's 'Not Confident' Gaza Ceasefire Will Hold; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-21

Trump joins the rest of the world in his assessment of reality.

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The Pentagon's New Middle East Policy Chief Wants To Scale Down US Presence in the Region; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-22

Michael DiMino, a former CIA analyst, was sworn in on Monday as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

Vital or existential US interests in the Middle East are best characterized as minimal to non-existent. And I think if you look at America’s experience as the primary security broker for the region … it has not rendered any lasting political, economic, or security benefits in service of US interests or the American people

[DiMino]

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Trump Orders 90-Day Pause on 'Foreign Development Assistance'; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-01-21

Trump openly declared that which every incoming administration does: a review of foreign assistance programs to ensure they are consistent with the wishes of those who assisted the incoming administration achieve electoral victory.

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Trump One, Biden Nothing; Ted Snider; The Libertarian Institute; 2025-01-21

Snider reviewed the BSB (Blinken/Sullivan/Biden) administration's record on diplomacy. It was a train wreck. From wasted opportunity to provocation, the Empire was outplayed by nations tired of its economic, military and diplomatic violence.

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Pardon Me for Being Angry; John Kiriakou; Consortium News; 2025-01-22

It’s no secret that I asked President Joe Biden to pardon me for my 2008 violation of the obscure Intelligence Identities Act of 1981.

My case for a pardon was strong. But I was ignored. Again. And this is despite the fact that Biden pardoned his entire immediate family, a crooked Pennsylvania judge who literally sold children into bondage, and a Chinese spy, in addition to giving “preemptive pardons” to General Mark Milley, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the members and staff of the Jan. 6 Committee.

Kiriakou was the US whistleblower on the CIA's torture program. He remains the only person punished.

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Biden's Legacy: The World Is More Unsafe For Journalists; Kevin Gosztola; Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia (originally The Dissenter); 2025-01-21

Kevin Gosztola completed his 4 part review of the relentless attack on independent journalism run, frankly, across the US and UK. Assange and Wikileaks were the canary in the coal mine.

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Trump Issues Order to End Censorship; Joe Lauria; Scheerpost; 2025-01-22

Trump signed the executive order, “Restoring Free Speech and Ending Federal Censorship which includes:

the Attorney General, in consultation with the heads of executive departments and agencies, shall investigate the activities of the Federal Government over the last 4 years that are inconsistent with the purposes and policies of this order.

Restoring Freedom Of Speech And Ending Federal Censorship; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

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On the Eve of Trump, Iran and Russia Launch Historical Deal; Pepe Escobar; Scheerpost; 2025-01-21

Escobar's consideration of the Iran-Russia Strategic Partnership focuses on the International North-South Transport Corridor, which is named in the treaty. It is a flagship SCO/BRICS+ project which interconnects India, Iran, Russia and neighbouring states.

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Central Asia becomes middle power contender in new Trump era; Alexandra Sitenko; Responsible Statecraft; 2025-01-21

Responsible Statecraft woke up to what's been going on in Asia for over a decade.

Alexandra Sitenko provided US talking points and framed the topic of central Asia as being about Trump when the drive for Asian integration (the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]) began under Obama. The article does not mention: BRI, SCO, or EAEU (EurAsian Economic Union). BRICS is used in the sub-head only.

She concluded with:

The new U.S. administration would be well advised to take advantage of the increased interaction among Central Asian states, as well as within their widespread network of strategic partnerships and alliances, that includes Russia, China, Turkey and the Arab world, by engaging on energy, connectivity and security to the benefit of all actors involved.

She is advising the Trump administration to do what China and Russia have been doing through the SCO and via the BRI for over a decade, without mentioning this.

I have no idea why the Quincy Institute (which publishes Responsible Statecraft) would put their name such utter trash. Or, to put that another way, anyone who has been reading this newsletter for a while knows more about what's going on strategically in central Asia than Sitenko.

For example, she wrote:

the five countries in the region are best placed to pursue their interests when acting as a group with a regional agenda. This is what Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been trying to do since 2022 in particular ...

after western intelligence agencies attempted a coup in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan: The Price of Insurgency; YesXorNo; 2022-01-09

Kazakhstan and the CSTO: Putin Calmly Reads the Riot Act; YesXorNo; 2022-01-11

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The Competency Crisis Proliferating The West; Alastair Crooke; The Unz Review; 2025-01-20

Crooke traces the origins of two social illnesses. Based on an analysis by Samuels he identifies the late Obama era "Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act" as the epitome of a new mechanism of political power established by President Obama with political consultant David Axelrod. The "permission structure" machine was based on repetition via the new Tech media giants. The purpose was to have "people to act against their beliefs by substituting new and ‘better’ beliefs through the top-down controlled and leveraged application of social pressure". Counter to these 'new' beliefs would later surface with the label "Wokeism".

Implicit to the belief replacement was an army of aides and believers who professed these new emotional realities which diverged from physical realities. These converts moved into the bureaucracy. A shift away from policy based on the physical to the metaphorical occured.

Secondly, Crooke examines a discussion between Matt Taibbi and Walter Kirn on the Los Angeles fires disaster. Kirn and various fire fighters noted that the local and state governments had failed to provide adequate firefighting equipment and personnel, and that blaming this on climate change is disingenuous. California has fires, irrespective of a changing climate. Policy had diverted funds towards projects which often never completed or did not deal with practical issues. They are divergent from reality. This is characterized as a "competence crisis".

From Europe, Crooke quotes (translated into English from French) Aurelien, who observed that the European responses to the war in Ukraine are completely devoid of a connection to reality. The "competency crisis" reappears. It is re-inforced by the fact that the size of the warring forces in Ukraine dwarf anything seen since WWII, the last time Russia proper had security concerns directly on its borders or was invaded.

Transcript - America This Week, Jan 10, 2025: "California Fires and America's Competency Crisis", Matt Taibbi with Walter Kirn, Racket News, 2025-01-11

MP3: yt-dlp https://www.racket.news/p/america-this-week-jan-9-2024-california

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"Juan Cole, Trumpocalypse", Tom's Dipatch, 2025-01-21

Now the umpteenth article has been published by the once useful Tom's Dispatch, wallowing in the lament of what Trump is yet to do. There may have been one in the last twenty which covered a different topic. The echo chamber can enjoy itself, by itself. I have struck the venerable publication from my reading list. An additional sadness is that the new editor, Nick Turse, is a journalist for whom I have much respect.

[Thanks for putting up with me getting that off my chest.]

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Lastly, here are most of the published articles from the White House in the first 24 hours of the Trump administration.

A cursory review shows that Trump is following up on commitments made during his campaign. Most publications are short. They are political statements, and generally call for the submission of reports from executive agencies. Those which involve an executive order are careful to delimit that they do not provide new legal rights.

The longest (reviewed) was that on the "America First Trade Policy". It involves many branches of the administration and calls for multiple reports. Existing policies or orders are placed under review based on reports received. The second longest was Trump’s initial recissions of 78 executive orders, a substantial piece of house keeping.

The "Cartels" publication sets a focus on identifying and eradicating local (US) elements of them, which is the right of the US head of state. They are transnational criminal organisations trafficking proscribed substances and evading taxes.

The documents on the southern border and the use of the military is perhaps the most interesting from a foreign policy perspective. The army is not the best tool to deal with immigration issues. It is however available to the US President. His choice of this tool gives it something to do within the US borders.

Given the the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) has orders for years due to the preceeding administraiton's approval for the destruction of military material in Ukraine, the MIC may not need new wars for its profits. Perhaps the Pentagon also understands the limits placed on it by its heavily reduced inventory.

Viewed from this perspective, President Trump is managing both the Pentagon and MIC, keeping them busy with policy issues concordant with his election statements. A politically informed balancing act seems at play. How successful it is, or whether that is really what is happening, will be interesting to observe.

A minor effort was made to preserve the order of publication (oldest first):

President Trump Announces Cabinet and Cabinet Level Appointments; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

President Trump Announces Sub-Cabinet Appointments; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

President Trump Announces Acting Cabinet and Cabinet-Level Positions; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

President Trump Designates Chairmen and Acting Chairmen; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

The Inaugural Address; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Initial Rescissions Of Harmful Executive Orders And Actions; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Restoring Freedom Of Speech And Ending Federal Censorship; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Return to In-Person Work; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Regulatory Freeze Pending Review; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Hiring Freeze; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-20

Granting Pardons And Commutation Of Sentences For Certain Offenses Relating To The Events At Or Near The United States Capitol On January 6, 2021; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Withdrawing The United States From The World Health Organization; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Holding Former Government Officials Accountable For Election Interference And Improper Disclosure Of Sensitive Governmental Information; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Declaring A National Emergency At The Southern Border Of The United States; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

America First Trade Policy; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Unleashing American Energy; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Clarifying The Military's Role In Protecting The Territorial Integrity Of The United States; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Protecting The Meaning And Value Of American Citizenship; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government's Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Declaring a National Energy Emergency; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Protecting The American People Against Invasion; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Establishing And Implementing The President's “Department Of Government Efficiency”; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

America First Policy Directive To The Secretary Of State; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Protecting The United States From Foreign Terrorists And Other National Security And Public Safety Threats; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Designating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations And Specially Designated Global Terrorists; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

Guaranteeing The States Protection Against Invasion; US Executive Government; The White House; 2025-01-21

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Sources

In situ.

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