Referenda and Mobilization: A Rock and a Hard Place
Referenda and Mobilization: A Rock and a Hard Place
A Rock and a Hard Place
[Image: Sergey Shoigu addresses the Russian people. The image is from RT.]
Publication date: 2022-09-21
Update 2022-09-22: More sources have been added.
A reading of this article is available.
Announcements
Two momentous announcements have been made. Four regions, the two of Donbas in Lugansk and Donetsk, and the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia will hold referenda between the 23rd and 27th of September 2022 on whether to join the Russian Federation. The second announcement was of a partial military mobilization by Russia.
For the first announcement, it precedes the planned referenda by two days. Thus, this is a "rushed" political process. The residents of the two Donbas regions have been waiting for this for 8 years enduring a civil war imposed on them by their former government in Kiev. For these people there is nothing "rushed" about this at all. Yesterday would not be fast enough.
The situations in Kherson and Zaporizhia are more tenuous. The area of these oblasts are split between military control by Russia and separatists and the Kiev government. While Kherson is dominantly under Russia/Separatist control, Zaporizhia is more evenly split. The capital city remains under the control of Kiev.
The western region of Donetsk oblast is under the control of Kiev. So, of these four regions to hold a referendum only one, Lugansk, is under the complete control of a single authority.
The partial mobilization will amount to a little over 1% of Russia's 25 million strong reserves, and will focus on those with combat experience or with a military specialization. This will amount to an additional 300 000 persons under arms. They will receive additional training, which is likely to take 3 months. The mobilization was in force at its announcement by President Putin.
Russia, led by the Kremlin and its Security Council, tend to take things slowly. Careful consideration, and multiple future plans are a signature of their approach to evolving events. These two announcements stand starkly in contrast with this behaviour. They appear reactionary rather than planned. The curious will have to wait to understand what factors prompted this sudden response.
Referenda
Kiev has passed laws which provide a 10 year sentence for anyone assisting in holding these referenda, and 5 years for anyone who votes in them, such is their desire for electoral politics.
Should these refernda be held, their outcome is likely to echo the 90+% result seen in Crimea in 2014. The residents of Lugansk and Donetsk Cities and their surrounding regions have suffered 8 years of war delivered on them by the Kiev government. The entire population has been terrorized. There are eight year old children who have known nothing more than war. Everyone will know someone who has been terrorized by injury or having their place of residence damaged by Ukrainian attacks. Stories of atrocities by extreme elements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will have spread wide. The results of the referenda in Donetsk or Lugansk are foregone.
The same may be true of Kherson and Zaporizhia too.
If these referenda return the results expected, then the Kremlin has no other choice than to accept their wish to join the Russian Federation. It is political suicide to reject them. Thus, Russia's borders will extend into former Ukrainian regions by local mandate.
This changes everything.
What was known as a proxy war between USA/NATO and Russia on Ukrainian territory will be come a hot war ON Russian territory. This is a very serious escalation.
Mobilization
Various commentators have been observing that the limitation on Russia encoded in the "Special Military Operation" has impeded her ability to conclude the action. This new partial mobilization will provide her with the forces to secure soon to be acquired territory. The forces under the SMO will then be released for further operations to achieve her objectives: demilitarization and deNazification.
As these new territories become "Russian" she will be able to freely deploy any forces she wishes irrespective of SMO limitations. This will provide Russia with an extreme degree of freedom in military deployment.
Analysis
The Kharkiv counter-offensive by Ukraine saw Russia and her separatist allies cede thousands of square kilometres of territory back to Ukraine. During that offensive, Ukrainian forces were essentially directed by NATO command and control. This was a "game changer", in that it openly declared NATO's role in the conflict. These two announcements of the referenda and the mobilization should be seen in this context.
We are seeing a very serious escalation, and it scares the shit out of me.
Proxy Wars
Many analysts viewed the Syrian Dirty War as a trial run, a precursor to WWIII. In fact, WWIII has been running for years on the propaganda and economic fronts. The Syrian proxy war was just a small manifestation in the military kinetic space.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine was created and is facilitated by USA/NATO, starting with the coup in 2014 and escalated by the civil war against the Donbas regions. Key events like the attack on the Trades Union Building in Odessa served as a signal of what was to come.
Ukraine desperately needs is a negotiated settlement and ceasefire. Some brave "realpolitik" diplomats are needed to assist. Face it, Crimea is Russian and has been since Catherine the Great. Lugansk and Donetsk want nothing to do with the Nazi ideologue infiltrated government in Kiev. The Ukrainian government is a subtle as a truck in a kitchen store. Russian language was banned and they have been attacking Russian ethnic citizens for almost a decade now. The "petal mines" story is all one needs to know about Kiev's evaluation of the citizens of Donetsk City.
So, dear diplomats, see this clearly. Crimea is Russia. The citizens of Lugansk and the majority of citizens in Donetsk want to be a part of Russia. Russia will not relinquish Kherson. It secures the water resources for Crimea and serves as a critical "land bridge" to eastern Ukraine. Similarly, the coastal region of Zaporizhia connects Kherson to the Donbas.
Ukraine can cut her losses and retain Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Or the conflict can continue with thousands more dying and Ukraine losing these territories too. USA/NATO want this second outcome. It "bleeds" Russia and then brings Russia's borders even closer to NATO.
This is the diabolical game being played.
An alternative is to stop the war. Give up the territories which wish to join Russia. Create peace for your people, and hold on to your access to the Black Sea, Ukraine.
Sources
Russia Announces Partial Mobilization, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-09-21
Putin Orders Partial Mobilization, Issues Nuclear Threat to West, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-09-21
Shoigu: Russia at War With Collective West Rather Than Ukraine, Natylie Baldwin/Sputnik, her website, 2022-09-21
Transcript of Putin’s Address Announcing Partial Mobilization, Natylie Baldwin/Kremlin, her website, 2022-09-21
From ‘special military operation’ to open war, Gilbert Doctorow, his website, 2022-09-22
Why Ukraine referendum is a big deal, M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, his website, 2022-09-22
SCOTT RITTER: Reaping the Whirlwind, Scott Ritter, Consortium News, 2022-09-22
The Roundtable #22: Alex Christoforou, Larry Johnson, The New Atlas, Gonzalo Lira interviews Christoforou, Johnson and Berletic, Lira's youtube channel, 2022-09-22
Culture
Midnight Oil - US Forces, Midnight Oil, uploaded 2009-10-03
“US Forces” is the first single from Midnight Oil’s fourth album, released in 1982, known in Australia as “Ten to One”. The drummer of the band was a major force in their song writing, which can be clearly heard in this single.
If you like what you read here, you can please the author by sharing it.
Notification
Subscription is optional. Subscribers can expect notifications for most articles. Better is to use RSS, or bookmark the "Archive" page and visit at leisure. If you use Twitter, following @YesXorNo1 is also an effective notifications strategy.
Copyright and Licensing
This work is copyright to the blog's author with CC BY-SA 4.0 licensing. Have fun, reuse, remix etc. but give credit and place no further restrictions. Lets build culture.