Safety By Love & Understanding
Ritter returns us to ABM treaty understanding
Published: 2024-04-20
Checkmate
One diversion and one deception are currently flowing through western media after Iran's justified response to Israel's outrageous attack on its diplomatic mission in Damascus. Scott Ritter's article, Checkmate, side steps both, progressing the discussion towards the topic we must reach.
The diversion, the discussion of the "New equation" or the change in the state of "deterrence" between Israel and Iran, is justified. This change in perceived local military power in the region will force changes in what is considered politically possible. Thus, political actors, both regional and the "powers" need to consider the new landscape. These discussions will become far less relevant when the ramifications which Ritter presented filter up.
The deception is the level of damage caused by Iran's response in Israel. During a discussion between Laith Marouf in Beirut and Dimitri Lascaris they produce simple statistical evidence to prove the media statement of "99%" of Iran's aerial munitions not detonating on Israeli assets is a lie. The case is simple. Taking the best figures available, that there were 350 munitions used, 1% of that is 3 or 4 impacts. Evidence for over 5 is immediately produced. Case closed.
A very interesting part of their discussion is Israel's motivation for the deception. They discussed an article from ynet news in which inside sources state that it is fortunate that statements made in the War Cabinet during the Iranian retaliation were not made public, or an exodus would have been created. Marouf and Lascaris suggest that the deception is motivated not by misleading the "West" but Israelis. An exodus of citizens would doom the Zionist colonial project of Israel.
Scott Ritter's description of the success of Iran's response is detailed. A summary of it is that Iran's retaliation did not use their best technology, and only a fraction of their arsenal. With this they penetrated on multiple occasions (9+) the most heavily defended territory, anywhere on our beautiful planet, against the exact type of munition which Iran employed. This takes a moment to sink in.
To help digest this, Ritter provided a description of the extent of the multi-layered, integrated systems which were in use in Israel and on waters nearby which failed to protect the key installation. He extended his article on his recent Ask the Inspector show.
The defense begins with a network of satellites. These were augmented with a constellation of ground based multi-spectral radar, including the best the US has. These were further augmented by two Aegis class destroyers and their advanced radar systems. To process all of this data, super computers are involved. All of these systems are interconnected by still further satellites and other communications equipment. On the ground around 5 layers of missile interception systems were involved, with different altitudes and capabilities. Involved were US and Israeli Patriot systems, Israel's Iron Dome and David and Sling, and the US most advanced THAAD. In the air above were also US Naval and Israeli air force air to air interceptors.
Does not work
Iran defeated all of this ... with a fraction of their arsenal and not their best technology. This is the reality which Ritter forces us to confront. Missile defense systems just do ... not ... work.
Mr. Ritter is intelligent and trained in a wide range of disciplines. Where he is turning our attention is to his native expertise, his life's work.
The reason that Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaties were signed at the end of the Cold War was that everybody agreed that ABM systems were, basically, impossible. All that would happen is that everyone would beggar themselves trying to build better ones and that, in the end, it would all be a waste because there is no such thing as an ABM defense. “It looks good on power-point slides.” It does not work.
The understanding reached for the signing of these treaties is a place to which Ritter wishes us to return. It must be accepted that we can kill each other with missiles. With nuclear ones we can kill just about everybody. What is required is to stop building them and non-existent defenses against them.
We need to learn to live together on this beautiful planet, to care for each other and our place in and on it. The sooner we re-embrace this understanding the better for all of us and the planet.
Sources
Checkmate, Scott Ritter, Scott Ritter Extra, 2024-04-16
📽️ Ask the Inspector Ep. 151 (streams live April 16 at 3 PM ET), Ritter and Norman, Scott Ritter/U.S. Tour of Duty, 2024-04-16
Israel dangerously exposed after Iranian drone and missile attacks, Lascaris interviews Laith Marouf, Dimitri Lascaris, 2024-04-17
Skip to 00:18:39 to progress to the discussion on Israel/Iran.
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