Stepping Back from the G20: A Wider Survey of Recent Geopolitical Events
A Wider Survey of Recent Geopolitical Events
[Image: a map by the author.]
Publication: 2022-11-21
Update 2022-11-22: Time offsets added for the video from The People’s Forum
Update 2022-11-25: Minor re-expression and a significant rework of the section on Iran.
Update 2022-11-26: Culture section filled.
A reading of this article is available.
The Map
The map shows the parts of the world surrounding Russia, including all of Asia. Members of NATO, both current and being approved, are shown in purple. Nations coloured in yellow have, following WWII, been invaded by the USA with some NATO involvement. Russia has also been involved in some of these conflicts.
The coups are in blue, or green for Pakistan to delimit her from Iran. These are USA supported coups. The war zones all follow a coup, or are preceded by one. So, yellow is also blue. People may dispute a coup in Australia. Research Gough Whitlam’s removal and the policies preceeding it: free education, including University, free health care, social security, and then he even threatened to get rid of Pine Gap, the USA’s premier spy facility in the southern hemisphere.
The takeaway from the map is that only two of Russia’s land neighbours in recent decades have not suffered a coup; China and Mongolia. NATO members like the Baltic states and Finland are ignored here. Armenia and Azerbeijan are not coloured, but should be. It is difficult to decide who the major players there are. Turkey and Russia are two, with the USA likely heavily involved. There have been repeated conflicts over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since the wave of independence across Africa following WWII there have been a procession of coups. Sadly, I have not researched this topic in any depth.
Cambodia and Laos are included with Vietnam for the “American War”, as the Vietnamese accurately label the atrocity. The were all bombed by the USA.
Afghanistan deserves a double mention due to the 1980’s proxy war and the USA’s return in 2001. Only half of the Korean peninsula is coloured which is probably wrong. But then I have to also colour China and Russia and the whole map becomes a blur. If one wished to step back to start time in the 19th century then again one needs to colour China and Russia due to the Opium Wars and the invasion of Russia by the USA and UK following the Russian revolution.
Some may also disagree with the “coups” in Indonesia and the Phillipines. The USA funded and armed the Indonesian military for the largest non-war genocide of the 20th century (1.5+ million dead). The IMF bribed the Marcoses in the Phillipines to the advantage of USA corporations and the detriment of its citizens. A coup for two thousands shoes.
History is complex.
Introduction
This article examines the changing geopolitical landscape. It focuses on Russia’s immediate or near neighbours and the BRICS and SCO organizations. Sorry, it got a bit long, but as I’ve said before, there is quite a bit of history to wade through.
The recent G20 meeting provides some insight into these geopolitical changes. An update on the current situation in Ukraine is provided towards the end. Of greater interest are what is happening in nations which are closer aligning with the new multi-polar groups represented by BRICS+ and the SCO. Other provocations across Asia, Africa and recent responses in Latin America will receive brief attention in the summary.
G20
Readers or listeners who've be around a while will know that this author values opinion from certain types of sources on the topic of geopolitics. The first are retired diplomats or senior politicians. They benefit from their retirement. They are at liberty to speak the truth that they see. They have also worked in the upper echelons of power and understand the core dynamics. The second category is veteran journalists, especially those who have reported from conflict zones. Being shot at or hiding from artillery provides a clarity of vision.
In considering the recent G20 meeting I draw on two reports, one from each of these source types. M. K. Bhadrakumar (M.K.B) is a former Indian diplomat. Pepe Escobar is a veteran journalist who has specialized in Asia, and especially central Asia.
The titles of their articles inform us well. M.K.B uses "The G20 is dead. Long live the G20". Escobar headlines with "Goodbye G20, Hello BRICS+". M.K.B notes that the G20 was created at the time of the "global financial crisis" in 2007. It is essentially an extension of the G7 (which was the G8, until Russia got kicked out). He concludes his "The G20 is dead" with advice for his own country:
India has a great opportunity to navigate the G20 in a new direction. But it requires profound shifts on India’s part too –away from its US-centric foreign policies, coupled with far-farsightedness and a bold vision to forge a cooperative relationship with China, jettisoning past phobias and discarding self-serving narratives, and, indeed, at the very least, avoiding any further descent into beggar-thy-neighbour policies.
Bhadrakumar is echoing a part of the lexicon of the multipolar initiative. Let’s drop this "zero-sum game" approach, and look for policy approaches in which multiple parties benefit.
One of Escobar's brilliant qualities as a journalist is that he can identify key moments which symbolize an event or sequence of events. He chooses the following for the G20 meeting:
The 3-hour, 30-minute-long face-to-face meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden – requested by the White House – took place at the Chinese delegation’s residence in Bali, and not at the G20 venue at the luxury Apurva Kempinski in Nusa Dua.
From this factual single sentence much can be learned. The meeting was long. It was requested by the White House. It occurred not at the G20 venue but at the Chinese delegation's residence. Thus, we can conclude that the USA's Executive had a series of topics which required the highest level of diplomacy. The Chinese were receptive and wished to host the discussion in a space where they felt secure from eavesdropping or other interference. Additionally, they would be able to cater the event, providing a comfortable, secure and welcoming environment, and be able to observe their guests closely.
[Image: an image of the meeting taken from the Chinese “readout”.]
The topics are fairly obvious; Ukraine, Taiwan, trade, military positioning etc.. Read the readouts from the Chinese or USA governments to learn that which they wish us to know.
When Col. Macgregor speaks of China his refrain is that they are interested in business, and thus trade. Therefore, they do not want instability induced by "colour revolutions" or wars. This was a part of the message delivered by Xi Jinping to Joseph Biden.
Pepe's commentary on the final declaration issued from the G20 meeting is of interest:
It was up to this year’s G20 host Indonesia – and the next host, India – to exercise trademark Asian politeness and consensus building. Jakarta and New Delhi worked extremely hard to find wording that would be acceptable to both Moscow and Beijing. Call it the Global South effect.
Escobar is highlighting the diplomatic efforts by Indonesia and India to achieve an outcome which balances interests. From this we learn that they are not cowed by the USA, but are returning more to the Non-Aligned Movement stance. They reject the Bush Jr. "with us or against us" narrative and wish to calm that type of rhetoric.
In concluding his article, Escobar turns to BRICS and its expansion. Applications to join the cooperative of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have come from Iran, Argentina, Algeria, and Indonesia. Serious expressions of interest have come from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Afghanistan. Iran’s approval to join the other big international forum of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) alongside the other big players in Asia (China, Russia, India, most of the stans, including Kazakhstan) has already been granted. Its formal announcement awaits next year’s SCO Heads of Government meeting.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is off and running and the geopolitical organisations which support it, BRICS and the SCO have an ever expanding membership application list.
Recent Disruptions to Asian Integration
The changing landscape of geopolitical alliances is fundamentally destabilizing for the now failing hegemon, the USA. One of the lessons of history is that declining empires tend to perform rash acts to attempt to maintain their dominance rather than adapting carefully to the changing circumstance.
The movers and shakers of USA foreign policy have been well aware of the challenges to be posed by the Asian integration projects for some time. The “Pivot to Asia” initiated under President Obama was an early sign of the USA foreign policy establishment’s response to this threat. The two most recent USA “National Security Assessments” have moved from Terrorism to “Great Power Competition” and specifically name the two biggest players in this Asian integration, China and Russia.
Belarus
Belarus and Russia have had relations from cordial from very close for a very long time. Belarus together with Ukraine are the territories which armies from Europe have attacked Russia. Thus, of all of Russia's neighbours these two countries hold special historical significance. Threats to destabilize relations between these nations and Russia are a component of the collection of current threats against Russia.
In response to the March 2006 elections in Belarus which the USA's Executive deemed undemocratic, George W. Bush issued sanctions against Belarus. More recently sanctions were added in June and added to in December of 2021. These followed a failed colour revolution and coup in the summer of 2020.
That coup is now well memory holed. Western commentators, particularly the Atlantic Council declared that it was a Russian coup! This fits their narratives nicely, but makes little sense. MoonOfAlabama exposed this as a coup heavily involving Ukraine against her northern neighbour.
[Image: an image from MoonOfAlabama’s research showing the flight path of the Ryan Air plane threatened with hoax bomb alert.]
In 2021 a bomb threat was issued against a Ryan Air flight over Belarus. The plane was forced to land in accordance with rules by the relevant international body for flight control. On board happened to be a political activist who was wanted in Belarus. The western media went into overdrive.
Again, MoonOfAlabama's work on the topic was particularly well researched. Two months later we learned the details. Roman Protasevich seems to have crossed some intelligence operatives. He was wanted by Belarus for participation in some aspects of the colour revolution in 2020. One year later the crazy bomb threat is issued from an "anonymous" Protonmail email address which causes the forced landing of the plane and delivers him to Belorussian authorities.
The collection of economic warfare, an attempted coup and a colour revolution are windows into the elements of "hybrid warfare" employed the the USA in its efforts to destabilize or overthrow the government of Belarus. Not only is Belarus important to Russia's national security strategy but is also a member of two key organisations. The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) is a part of Russia's security architecture. The Eurasian Economic Union is a Russian vehicle to foster economic ties in its neighbourhood. These organisations are a component of the greater Asian integration project, and Belarus is a member of both.
Changing Belarus' government and withdrawing Belarus from these organisations would not only threaten Russia militarily but also undermine components of the Asian integration project.
Kazakhstan
The BRI project was announced by Chinese President Xi in 2013 in Kazakhstan.
We saw very early in 2022 the attempted coup in Kazakhstan as a classic colour revolution via the hijacking of legitimate protests over a sudden increase in fuel prices. This was primarily defeated by the CSTO. Kazakhstan has since maintained some independence with Prime Minister Kassym-Jomart Tokayev disagreeing with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin on occasion. Nonetheless, Kazakhstan is fundamentally joined at the hip with her neighbour Russia. She is also a fundamental node in the BRI initiative. China has more the 20 billion USD invested in more than 50 projects in Kazakhstan to solidify the Kazakh role in the BRI.
Tokayev's recent statements that in Kazakhstan "we simply have to pursue a multi-vector, as they say now, foreign policy". This statement is a direct rebuttal of recent "warnings" by EU chief diplomat Joseph Borrell following his culturally racist statements that Europe is a garden and the rest of the world is a jungle. His warning advised Central Asian republics to "reject dependency on any single international partner, regardless of history or geography".
It is in south Asia that we see more recent efforts by the USA and "partners" (read vassals) to destabilize and thus create friction for these growing alliances. The next case is that of Pakistan which is a member of the SCO.
Before moving on, all three of these mentioned nations Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are large immediate neighbours of Russia with long cultural ties.
Pakistan
Early this year, 2022, the USA essentially bribed a few members of the Pakistani parliament to pass a no confidence vote in then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Those who grew up outside of Britain and her former colonies may be unaware of Khan’s background. He was born to a sufficiently wealthy family to fund him studying at Oxford where he read Philosophy, Politics and Economics. His great achievement before entering politics is that he is one of the greatest cricketers of all time. He led the Pakistani cricket team on multiple occasions including their only victory in the Cricket World Cup. He is a national hero.
[Image: Imran Khan is inducted in to the International Cricket Council’s Hall of Fame.]
Before his political career he attempted to serve his community and nation. He assisted in the establishment of cancer hospitals in his home region of Pakistan. These activities along with his sporting career explain his immense popularity in Pakistan.
Following his ouster, he returned to Lahore and has lead numerous political rallies attended by over a hundred thousand people.
[Image: a rally in support of Khan in Lahore. Source.]
He called for a march on Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, and has been joined by many hundreds of thousands. At a recent event an assassination attempt failed to kill Khan, though one person died and numerous others, including Khan, were injured. I do not claim that the USA was behind this. What I do claim is that links between the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI, and the CIA are long and deep. Khan's mission to provide Pakistan with a more independent foreign policy runs counter to a collection of vested interests, and the ISI is potentially one of them.
Iran
The next "destabilizing" event on our radar is the wave of protests linked with the death of a Kurdish Iranian woman who was detained by police for breaching Iran's Islamic dress code.
Iran, or Persia as the ancient Greeks called it, has been a major cultural, economic and military power in south western Asia for at least two thousand years. Because of its strategic location and abundant natural resources it has been the constant object of colonial and superpower influence and rivalries, including from the Greeks (Alexander the Great defeated the Achaemenid Empire (Persia) in 330 BCE), the Arabs in the 7th century CE, the Mongols in the 13th century CE and the Anglo-Americans in the 20th.
In 1953 the UK and USA jointly engineered a coup d'état to overthrow Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, who had attempted to nationalise Iranian oil. The young Pahlavi Shah was then installed as an autocrat, assisted by the SAVAK secret police set up by the CIA, to suppress dissent. The Shah ruled (and Anglo-American oil prospered) for 26 years until ousted by the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Since then the USA, UK and their allies Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Türkiye have explored every means possible to destabilise Iran.
The current protests in Iran are concentrated in the north western border regions where Iranians of Kurdish and Azerbaijani heritage are more susceptible to foreign influence. This is yet another case of political unrest based on the USA's "color revolution" model which we have seen played out again and again.
This is not to say that the protesters don't have legitimate grievances. The color revolution tactic is to infiltrate such peaceful protests and inject violence. This is what is happening in Iran. Over 20 police officers have been killed in isolated communities, not by protesting mobs but by trained assassins.
A recent interview by Max Blumenthal with an Iranian woman provides a deeper context to the protests than the story circulating in the legacy media (see Sources). The issue is one for the Iranian people to resolve. The elevation of peaceful protest to violence hinders the protesters’ efforts to advance civil rights.
Ukraine
Another wonderful interview with Col. Douglas Macgregor has been published (see Sources). Doug summarizes the situation clearly. The Ukrainians are in trouble. The west cannot afford to continue to fund the government indefinitely. The Ukrainian military, brave though it may be, is facing serious difficulty. The USA has recently purchased 100 000 rounds of NATO calibre artillery shells from South Korea. This informs us of their lack of production capacity.
[Image: a frame from the interview with Macgregor.]
Russia has been striking Ukraine's weapons depots and repair workshops since the beginning of the Special Military Operation. Now, led by General Surovikin, Russia is also targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure. This has horrible effects on the civilian population, but also seriously degrades the Armed Forces of Ukraine's mobility. Ukraine cannot rapidly replace large transformers to rectify this problem.
As this newsletter has stated, territory is a static asset in war. It is mobile assets, soldiers, weaponry and transport, which are valuable. The exceptions are locations which provide useful advantage to an occupying force, like high ground. These are relatively rare on the steppes of Ukraine. Russia has now twice traded territory to preserve its valuable assets, its soldiers and equipment. The original force of Russian and Donbas militia are now being dramatically expanded. Russia and her allies are more than doubling her deployed forces.
The Macgregor interview is conducted by a Polish interviewer publishing to a Polish audience. Macgregor advises the Polish government and people that Poland does have the opportunity to play a leading role in this conflict. That is to lead negotiations to end it.
Summary and Other Tensions
If one zooms out, both geographically and temporally, one sees a series of destabilizing actions taken in countries in Asia who are part of this new collective to escape the unipolar hegemon. The events listed above are just a taste of the conflict being funded and created in greater Asia. Others to be considered include:
The USA’s continued occupation of parts of Iraq and Syria.
The war in Yemen recently saw the beginnings of opportunities for peace, but conflict continues.
Israel, with 4 billion USD of annual funding, is still repressing the native Palestinian population.
Afghanistan continues to suffer. It had 7 billion USD of its national reserves stolen by the USA.
The USA is about to deploy a fleet of drone boats into the Persian Gulf which is obviously designed to counter Iran's fast, small military boats.
The USA just ran more military exercises with South Korea to which Caitlin Johnstone's metaphor of a "self licking boot" seems apt.
There are AUKUS and the "Quad" military alliances recently formed by the USA.
A final mention needs be made of conflicts being created or maintained in Africa and Latin America. The 30 year long war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo rages on. Conflicts in the horn of Africa, from Ethiopia to Sudan continue.
In Latin America the USA has maintained an economic blockade on Cuba for 60 years. For the last 30, the UN General Assembly has passed a motion condemning the ongoing oppression of Cuba. The last vote was everyone against the USA (excepting Israel, Ukraine and some other lackey). Which is to say that no other member of NATO agrees with the USA.
Venezuela has withstood the stupidity of the Guadio hoax. Bolivia has regained a socialist government focused on the national interest and independent foreign. The imposed Christian fundamentalists were voted out. In the process the Organization of American States lost all credibility. Colombia has shrugged off the Drug War occupation and like Bolivia is seeking more autonomy under its new socialist government. Indeed, Colombia has recently reestablished diplomatic relations with Venezuela. Their president declared the citizens of the two nations as “one people”.
Nicaragua withstood considerable USA financial backing of the opposition to the Sandanista’s which won their recent elections. One should not forget that the USA fought the Sandanista’s with funding via the “Iran-Contra” scandal in the 1980’s.
Mexico’s “Amlo” snubbed the USA in a recent “Conference of the Americas” for not inviting Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela among others. Argentia has applied to join the SCO, and “Lula” has just been returned to power in Brazil.
The unipolar hegemonic moment has passed. New structures are being established. The era of pure bullying is sliding from view. The new theme is negotiation.
Sources
G20
The G20 is dead. Long live the G20, M. K. Bhadrakumar, his website, 2022-11-19
Goodbye G20, Hello BRICS+, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2022-11-18
Belarus
Belarus - A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2020-6-16
The 'Russian Coup' Plot In Belarus Was Faked By Ukraine, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2020-08-07
Timeline, Narrative Control And Consequences Of The Ryanair Incident In Belarus, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2021-06-02
Roman Protasevich, Casualty Of The Ryanair Incident In Belarus, Is Spilling The Beans, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2021-06-04
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan: The Price of Insurgency, YesXorNo, this newsletter, 2022-01-09
Kazakhstan and the CSTO: Putin Calmly Reads the Riot Act, YesXorNo, this newsletter, 2022-01-11
Pakistan
Failed assassination of Imran Khan may push Pakistan’s US-backed coup regime to tipping point, Junaid S. Ahmad, Multipolarista, 2022-11-08
Imran Khan SHOT | Who Is Behind It?, Richard Medhurst, his youtube channel, 2022-11-06
Iran
On Iran - Fakenews From Newsweek, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-11-15
Russia strategises with Iran for the long haul in Ukraine, M. K. BHADRAKUMAR, his website, 2022-11-14
Russia, India, China, Iran: The Quad That Really Matters, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review (and PressTV), 2022-11-25
US to Deploy Over 100 Unmanned Vessels to the Persian Gulf, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-11-21
Iran’s protests: a different view from the ground, Max Blumenthal interviews Setareh Sadeghi, The Grayzone, 2022-10-02
Ukraine
Mike Krupa talks to Colonel Macgregor - Ukraine, Russia and NATO, Vanessa Beeley, her youtube channel, 2022-11-19
Other
US Flies More Bombers With South Korea After North’s ICBM Test, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-11-21
The Self-Licking Boot Of US Militarism, Caitlin Johnstone, her newsletter, 2022-11-05
Lula wins Brazil election: Game-changer for BRICS and Latin America, Ben Norton, Multipolarista, 2022-10-31
The Cuba Embargo: Isolating America, Ted Snider, Antiwar, 2022-11-21
The Real Path to Peace in Ukraine, The People's Forum NYC, 2022-11-19
00:24:35 Claudia de la Cruz
00:45:41 Medea Benjamin
00:54:16 Noam Chomsky
01:10:30 Jill Stein
01:43:33 Brian Becker
02:22:01 Eugene Puryear
02:45:11 Vijay Prashad
Culture
This time, you can actually enjoy the video too. Note the trucks.
INXS - Mediate, INXS, uploaded 2012-12-24 (interesting date, that)
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