Team Trump and a Western-hemispheric Contraction
The Monroe Doctrine returns!
[A pretty map of gas flows to Europe].
Published: 2025-01-14
Out with the old
"Genocide Joe", the marionette President managed by US National Security Adviser Sullivan and US Secretary of State Blinken, will acquiesce to his sunset clause in a few days. His mental incompetence was managed by the US corporate media until the last moment when his incapacity was "revealed" as a scoop. While he was reading from teleprompters or wandering aimlessly off stage the US National Security State apparatus profited from a failed war with Russia in Ukraine and a genocide in Palestine. Those powers are now caught on a sticky wicket in Syria where their latest bands of fanatics are engaged in the dismemberment of the state with a neo-Ottoman wannabe Sultan and Zionist ideologues.
In with the new
In response to the globalist elements of those powers' disregard for domestic affairs, and the financial and moral disasters entailed in the first two of those foreign adventures, the US population voted emphatically to remove Democrats from their legislature and executive branches of government. President elect Donald Trump had his first administration undermined by conspiracies between the CIA, FBI and MSM based on a complete fabrication, RussiaGate, authored and paid for by the Clinton campaign and its allies.
On Tuesday 2025-01-07,
at a press conference at his Florida mansion, President-elect Donald Trump took his gloves off, after showing monumental patience in the face of the shenanigans by the lame duck president Joe Biden and his inner circle to “do an Obama” on him for a second time by setting the compass for his new term in the White House starting January 20.
Trump tore into Biden and his team (“sick groups of people”) and signaled he’s had enough of their so-called “transfer of power.” The proverbial last straw was the clumsy attempt by Biden Administration to release special counsel Jack Smith’s “final report” on the federal investigation into Trump, which has no other purpose than serving to humiliate him.
[...]
On the policy front, Trump made it abundantly clear that he intends to discard Biden’s energy / environment /climate change policies as well as on immigration.
Media attention focused swiftly on Trump's statements regarding "the US taking control of Panama Canal and Greenland with military action, if need be." "He warned that if Denmark resisted the US takeover of Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark), he will impose steep tariffs." Denmark responded by inquiring as to how the US would like to expand its military presence on the colossal, melting ice cap. Trump threatened Canada with “economic force” and pointed at the US’ bilateral trade deficit, asking “Why are we supporting a country $200 billion plus a year”?
While he,
promised more tax relief for the rich, repelling environmental regulations and an increase in oil and gas production [...] what caught the minds of most observers were his ideas on foreign policy. Trump is rejecting to further raise conflicts with the most obvious 'enemies' - Russia, China and Iran. He is instead diverting the public by providing new targets - Canada, Greenland and Panama.
It seems that Trump's MAGA foreign policy vision is a return to the Monroe Doctrine, a western-hemispheric rather than global hegemony. Perhaps emblematic of this vision was his declared desire to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America: "which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot of territory, the Gulf of America — what a beautiful name. And it’s appropriate".
The day before Trump's press conference, Team Sullivan/Blinken/Biden banned offshore gas drilling for 625 million acres of the US coastline. “I’ll unban it immediately,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt [WaPo].
After the Biden administration's destruction of the NordStream pipelines (3 of 4), US energy companies are selling LNG to Europe at a markup of 2 to 3 times the US price. Trump's 'unban' is a signal to this important US industry that he understands their role in international influence and importance to the US economy. The US severance of the budding energy relationship between Germany and Russia, via the NordStream destruction, served to induce some German manufacturing to relocate to the US.
The US Empire is corporate. It always has been.
Ukraine
To redirect US foreign policy to closer shores, President elect Trump has a collection of foreign engagements from which to disengage.
The ongoing belligerence of Team Sullivan/Blinken/Biden has added complexity to Trump's stated objective of removing US engagement from the failed NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. That this project was also about US influence via the energy distribution market resurfaced late in 2024 when Ukrainian autocrat Zelenskyy refused to re-approve the transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia for gas to the European market.
Given that Ukraine is broke, forgoing $1 billion USD per year from Russia for transit, was a costly decision. It revealed the political rather than economic nature of the decision, and thus from which quarter it was approved.
The destruction or closure of natural gas pipelines from Russia forced Europe to increase imports of liquefied (compressed) natural gas (LNG). Unbeknownst to many and despite EU sanctions, Europe's import of Russian LNG is at a high since 2019. In billions of cubic metres (bcm) Europe's import of Russian LNG has moved from 19 bcm [2022], 17.8 bcm [2023] to 21.5 bcm [2024].
Discussions between the Trump administration and the Kremlin have been agreed, which is to the advantage of the country which is being destroyed by the warring in it. As experienced and educated commentator and senior US diplomat Chas Freeman has noted, resolution to the conflict involves multiple dimensions involving multiple collections of parties. It could never be resolved in a day. Team Trump have walked that unrealistic timetable back to a more manageable 6 months, with a headline happy "100 days" given to the feckless media.
The security concern at the root of the conflict was communicated by Russia to NATO and the US almost 2 months before the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) engaged directly with Ukraine. Both the US and NATO ignored these draft treaties from Russia. Discussion of them must finally begin if the Trump administration wishes for an orderly withdrawal from the conflict. These discussions involve not only Russia, the US and Ukraine, but also the rest of Europe. Entangled in these discussions are economic sanctions and $300 billion of the Russian Central Bank's foreign reserve assets.
Europe, including the U.K., lack the capacity to replace the US military assistance to Ukraine. For the EU to replace the US, it would need to double its military aid to Ukraine. But the current political situation in Europe, along with the real military capabilities of individual European countries, makes this an impossible objective.
Germany, Europe’s largest military donor to Ukraine, has plunged into political chaos with the collapse of the Scholz-led coalition. Macron, a staunch defender of Ukraine, has lost control over France’s domestic politics. Elsewhere in Europe, political parties on the far right and far left, with pro-Russian sympathies, are rising.
[M.K.B]
The rights of the Russian speaking minority which remain in whatever is left of Ukraine is another topic requiring formalized agreement, and almost certainly amendments to Ukraine's constitution. These discussions will involve the "denazification" of Ukraine, one of Russia's specified aims in its military campaign.
Ukraine's neutrality and its demilitarization are a third component on which agreement must be reached.
Lastly, the territorial borders of Ukraine require definition. While this topic receives extensive focus during the current warring, and acknowledging that it is a complex topic, it is perhaps the least difficult on which to agree, as there are less parties to it.
Russia is not only winning the war, but envisions its continuation for years. Europe cannot replace the US supporting Ukraine.
Russia wishes for the conflict to be resolved. As opposed to the US, EU and Ukraine, Russia has constantly been open to discussions of a resolution and has repeatedly negotiated towards this end, before and during the conflict. Every opportunity to prevent or end the conflict has been undermined by the other three parties. This has created a political climate within parts of Russian society, including its military leadership of absolute distrust in the "West". Russia's political leadership are forced to consider its military's political demands, irrespective of whatever opinions are expressed by pundits in the West.
Palestine
Given the influence of AIPAC on US domestic politics, and that President elect Trump has selected a host of Zionists for his administration, Team Trump's foreign policy in southwest Asia is likely to support Israel's current leadership. The Greater Israel project will continue to expand. As it does, whatever crumbs of US moral leadership remain will continue to crumble.
Trump pressured Israel to commit to a hostage exchange, following the negotiation path in which Israel has previously engaged. Some have noted that this is the highest level of political influence yet by an uninaugurated US President. Trump also sent a message to his Israeli counterpart, Netanyahu, by posting on his social media platform a speech by Professor Jeffrey Sachs which was highly criticial of Israel and Netanyahu. Trump’s Zionist appointees are seen as a price to also position others within his administration. His social media posting may have been a declaration of his independence. How any of this will assist in curtailing the nightmare in Gaza is unknown.
Another $8 billion was the final Sullivan/Blinken/Biden gift to US weapons manufacturers and their barbaric customer in Tel Aviv.
The IDF have not defeated the Qassem Brigades in Gaza.
In the last three days, Hamas fighters have killed nine Zionist soldiers and wounded more than 20.
[Larry Johnson 2025-01-14]
IDF can never defeat Hamas. It is a political organisation and idea with extensive support in the Palestinian diaspora. Instead, the IDF is massacring civilians every day.
Netanyahu smashed Obama’s complex regional balance to flex the Greater Israel project. Whether Trump can create another may depend more on Israeli domestic politics than his intentions.
Asia
The continuing destruction and annexation of Syria has removed its use as a land bridge and weapons production territory by elements of the Axis of Resistance against the Zionist colonists in Israel.
Ansarallah in Yemen have not abandoned their support for Palestinian independence. They recently attacked the Harry S. Truman US aircraft carrier, in response to the US, UK and Israeli attacks on Yemen.
Iran's long awaited strategic partnership with Russia is expected to the signed on January 17th, 2025. This will solidify the littoral cornerstones for the Asian block against US financial and military hegemony. Indonesia's full membership of BRICS was another recent key strategic achievement for the block.
The Trump administration's seeming choice for a return to western-hemispheric dominance will likely generate backlash amongst the Deepstate's China-hawks. It will be interesting to watch where Kurt. K. Campbell, the current Deputy Secretary of State and a leading China-hawk, is positioned within or without of the executive.
Since Deng Xiaoping's vision and transformation of China into a socialist mixed economy, China's economic rise has been based on government planning and investment. It was assisted by the US offshoring of manufacturing in the 1990s. Today, China is not only outproducing the West, but is also dominating in research in sectors like food agriculture, selected for focus by the Chinese government.
The US government's lack of planning and investment, along with the same by its corporate backers, is the other side of China's rise. The US population may begin to see the cause and effect loop as distinct from the phooey published by their corporate media.
We should have four years watching how the factions behind the US Deepstate allow or block policies of Team Trump to direct the Imperium. Russia, China, India and Iran, and their partners are prepared and anticipating.
The US is learning that hegemony is not a stable state for a "world order".
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Sources
US
Trump unveils the Greater America project, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 2025-01-13
To Avoid Fighting Large Conflicts Trump Is Creating Smaller Ones, b., Moon of Alabama, 2025-01-08
Trump, Iran and the Obama strategic blueprint, Alastair Crooke, The Unz Review, 2025-01-13
Defining the Deep State, Larry C. Johnson, SONAR21, 2025-01-10
Biden's offshore drilling ban may test limits of presidential powers, The Washington Post, Archive.today, 2025-01-07
Can Trump Save America from Itself?, Alastair Crooke, The Unz Review, 2025-01-10
Empire of Chaos, Reloaded, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2025-01-10
Report: Denmark Told Trump Team It Could Discuss Expanding US Military Presence in Greenland, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2025-01-12
Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is ready for summit with Donald Trump, says Kremlin, Financial Times, Archive.today, 2025-01-10
Kiev plays games with Russian gas transit, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Archive.today, 2025-01-08
WaPo Editors - Ending The War Is Worse Than Losing, b., Moon of Alabama, 2025-01-07
Europe cannot fill void left by US in Ukraine's defense, Kyivindependent, Archive.today, 2025-01-06
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[US] NATO v Russia: 2014 - 2024, YesXorNo, 2024-03-08
Southwest Asia
How the West Destroyed Syria, Peter Ford, Antiwar, 2025-01-12
Russia's Putin and Iran's Pezeshkian to sign strategic partnership pact on Jan. 17, Kremlin says, Reuters, Archive.today, 2025-01-13
Zionist Holocaust / Palestine
Houthis hit US Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier using missiles, drones, N/A, TASS, 2025-01-10
Podcast Monday - Dissecting Trump, Israel, Iran and Ukraine, Larry C. Johnson, SONAR21, 2025-01-14
Pro-Palestine Activism & Trump's Return, Medea Benjamin, Consortium News, 2025-01-10
White House To Approve Massive Weapons Sale to Israel, Kyle Anzalone, Antiwar, 2025-01-04
Blinken Says Hamas Has Recruited as Many New Fighters as It Has Lost, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2025-01-14
China
China has become a scientific superpower, Economist, Archive.today, 2025-01-03
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Videos
Amb. Chas Freeman: What Is Trump Really After?, Alkhorshid interviews Freeman, Dialogue Works, 2025-01-10
Alastair Crooke: Should Trump Trust Netanyahu?, Judge Napolitano interviews alastair Crooke, Judging Freedom, 2025-01-13
📽️ Russia Victory or Political Settlement in Ukraine, Chas Freeman & Alexander Mercouris with Glenn Diesen, The Duran, 2025-01-15
Copyleft: CC0
"...The US is learning that hegemony is not a stable state for a "world order"...."
The US is not "learning" that. It is experiencing it. Learning is something altogether different. "Learning" implies that experience prompts reflection, recalibration and revision. Which is not something they do at all. They never learn.