Published: 2024-08-10
Updated 2024-08-12: an update section was added with corresponding sources.
Updated 2024-08-14: an additional update section was added with sources.
Updated 2024-08-15.
Ukraine invades the Russian Federation
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have invaded the Russian Federation's Kursk oblast with around 3 elite brigades. (A brigade contains several battalions and has a nominal size of 3 to 5 thousand troops. Thus, an estimate of the size of the invasion is over 10 000 soldiers). [NB: a later source, Bryen, estimates low numbers of over 1 000 in the initial phase.]
The invasion was positioned to meet little resistance which requires that sufficient quality intelligence was available to effect it. This means that NATO, and specifically US, intelligence is the basis for the invasion.
The AFU units involved include one with a name like "Russian Democratic Battalion" or equivalent. Similar types of units fighting for the AFU were involved in incursions into Russia earlier in the war. The inclusion of such a unit indicates that their propaganda value is an intention of the operation. This indicates that the AFU's military intelligence organisation (GUR) is almost certainly behind the operation. It has Kyrylo Budanov's name written all over it, with the support of the CIA.
Following the initial thrust, the AFU units stabilized their area of around 100 square kilometres with a few villages and agricultural or forested land. Reconnaissance units were sent forth. They met resistance and were forced to fall back with the ground intelligence they'd gathered.
A Military Intelligence Operation
During the evening of 8th August, thousands of phone calls were placed to Kursk residents impersonating [1] the authorities in the oblast's identically named capital, Kursk city. This generated a wave of evacuations which clogged the roads from the outskirts of the occupied area along the major roads to Kursk. These clogged roads limited the logistics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) to respond. This telephone operation is a hallmark of military intelligence. Thus, GUR is almost certainly behind the entire operation. Seeing as the GUR and CIA have been in close cooperation since before the 2014 (US operated) Maidan coup in Kiev, the CIA knew of and did not prevent this GUR operation. The natural conclusion is that they are in close cooperation running it.
Several attacks were made on halted columns of AFRF soldiers being moved to respond. At least one of these attacks involved the use of 4 HIMARS rockets. This is an example of the consequences of the US and other NATO allied nations approving the use of their long range missiles by Ukraine to attack Russia within its borders. This suggests one from a collection of plausible motives for the operation. It is an opportunity to attack Russian military formations in Russia with US armaments. While it is certainly the case that many personnel in the GUR would wish this, it is also plausible that many old Cold War warriors from the CIA would also relish the prospect.
On the 9th, the AFU brought in support units including artillery which has shorter range than missile attacks. These have included US M777 Howitzers. There are certain to be drone operators, too. These and the 10 000 odd troops deployed will need other support (food, ammunition, command and control etc.).
The AFRF have cordoned off the occupied area with reinforcements and are in the process of executing whatever plans they have for this type of contingency.
[1]: That the calls were impersonating Russian authorities was made by Dima, and seemed likely. It is quite possible that there was no impersonation, that the calls were from the Russian authorities in Kursk. A combination is also possible. Either way, the clogged roads did impede Russia’s ability to respond quickly. That the area was then cleared of civilians created a “free fire” zone for Russian units deployed to deal with the invasion. This was to their later advantage.
A Suicidal Provokation for a Potential Nuclear War
While it is certain that these probably skilled and undoubtedly foolhardy Ukrainian soldiers will either die on Russian soil or flee, their leadership has given the AFRF a serious black eye. The intelligence which enabled the operation was accurate. There were no corresponding defence units of the AFRF to counter the invasion. Ignoring the extremely unlikely scenario of the AFRF deliberately allowing the invasion, Russia's military intelligence failed to identify the threat and prepare for it.
Videos published by Ukraine show close aerial surveillance over Russia, probably shot by drones. This means that not only was there no counter-force, but that the AFRF allowed this level of surveillance. This was used by Ukraine to attack some of the reinforcement columns being sent by the AFRF. Additionally, the local population was not prepared for the potential of the telephone operation, an additional failure of Russian intelligence. Russia's government has two problems; dealing with the invasion and re-assuring its population of the capability of its military intelligence.
The well known saying of "Dont poke the bear" is about to be proven again. Russia is certain to rain destruction down on whatever infrastructure and military targets it chooses in Ukraine, as well as the AFU units which have invaded.
Speculation as to whether this invasion's real target was a nuclear power plant some 40 Km from the border are all moot. Russia has contained the invading force. The only place the Ukrainians are going is back to Ukraine or six feet under. Other speculation for the motivation of this suicidal operation by the AFU is to "create an improved negotiation position". This is ludicrous.
NATO's approval of this operation (it was enabled by US intelligence) has authorized Russia to follow its nuclear doctrine:
Russia is directly under threat.
The US has created this condition. It is provoking a nuclear war and should be utterly condemned for this recklessness.
This situation was warned of by all sensible observers when the US and some of its NATO allies gave Ukraine permission to attack Russia within Russia using their weapons. The Ukraine government is paid by the US, armed by the US, gets its intelligence from the US and was trained by the US.
Kursk
This episode will long be remembered by Russians as a direct, approved, US/NATO powered invasion of their home. Russians have very long memories.
PS: Kursk has another military badge. In this oblast was fought the largest tank battle in history in which Russia defeated the Wehrmacht during WWII in 1943. To that honor is about to be added the defeat of the NATO proxy, Ukraine.
Kursk is and shall remain a proud Russian oblast.
Update 2024-08-12
Dima (from Military Summary, see [JjHCoNyGCeA] ) mentioned an update from the Russian Ministry of Defense which detailed the locations of some of its operations to counter the invasion. These were considerably to the north of the area which was earlier believed to be the limits of Ukraine's initial invasion.
Satellite imagery showed the Russian construction of a defensive belt further to the north, south of the capital Kursk.
Dima also reported on probes and some advances to the south east of the initial invasion, some heading east and others north east. This demonstrates that the width of the operation is larger than previously understood.
The combination of both confirms that the operation is large.
Russia will not tolerate the invasion. Claims that Ukraine are motivated by a desire for a stronger negotiation position are idiotic. Russia will not negotiate until after all of these suicidal Ukrainians are dead or have left Russian Federation territory. Claims that Russia's political leadership will suffer for this, indicate a complete lack of understanding of history or the Russian character.
What we know is that the US puppet regime in Kiev, financed, armed, funded and provided with intelligence and political support by the US, has launched a major operation which is an invasion of the Russian Federation.
The New Cold War, just got hot.
Update 2024-08-14
Bloomberg reports that Russian President Vladmir Putin has appointed a former deputy head of the special operations division of Russia’s GRU military intelligence to report to him on the operation by Russia's military and Federal Security Service to rid Russia of the Ukrainian invasion.
Kursk region acting Governor Alexey Smirnov told Putin and top officials on Monday that Ukraine had control of some 28 towns and villages over an area of about 480 square kilometers, and that 180,000 residents were leaving their homes to flee the fighting.
Assuming the veracity of the above statement, it provides a current assessment of the task which lies before the Russian military and security services.
The appointment signals the political seriousness of the situation. The sub-text may be that President Putin expects no more surprises: be on your top game, everybody.
Update 2024-08-15
Doctorow confirms both this article's estimate of 10 000 invading soldiers and that Russia is predominantly supplying forces from its other military districts, rather then withdrawing forces from the existing lines of contact.
Doctorow describes Russian media as completely lacking any description of the area captured or response tactics, but focusing either on fronts in Donbas or the large national relief effort for the displaced persons from Kursk. These, Doctorow describes the West as reporting at 133 000. I've seen figures from 120 to 180 000. Russia has ordered evacuations.
Doctorow believes that Russia will likely use a scorched earth approach to clearing the invaders -- total destruction. This makes some sense. Russia can rebuild the territory; it is its own. It can also demonstrate utter ferocity in its actions, knowing that there are no civilians. Russia has characterized the invaders as terrorists, and there is plenty of evidence to support this -- the AFU assassinating unarmed border guards was reported in the Financial Times quoting an AFU soldier. Thus, Russia would not see itself as constrained by the Laws of War.
Ritter stated that the operation is being run by NATO (i.e US) with their integrated live data, as a form of test run of this new form of warfare. This is realistic and adds a meaningful motive.
The operation is a valuable form of military training being conducted by the US/NATO at the expense of Ukrainians and Russians, with a few NATO nation soldiers too. US military leadership does not care about foreign grunts.
This looks very much like a diabolical, US led, military training exercise on the territory of the Russian Federation. It is an extreme provocation for which the US and NATO will likely pay a heavy price. As I wrote almost a year ago, the Ukraine war is an Era Defining Event.
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow： Is Russia About to EXPLODE with Fury？ [M7O92-RV5Cs], Doctorow speaks with Nima, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-14
Scott Ritter： Israel's Entire Future Hangs in the Balance - Russia Wiping Out Ukraine's Army [lu8QSGTRa24], Alkorshid & Ritter, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-13 [this video is identical to the one included in the later podcast which also covered the FBI raid]
00:57:38 start of Ukraine discussion
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Sources
Ukraine - CIA/MI-6 Chiefs Push For New Terror Campaign Against Russia, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-09-08
This post-publication article from Moon of Alabama brings the “intelligence” lead of the military/political policies of NATO/Ukraine into focus.
Putin Brings In His Ex-Bodyguard to Counter Ukrainian Incursion, news desk with Sylvia Westall, Bloomberg, 2024-08-13
As Ukraine Pushes Deeper Into Russia, Moscow Sends Reinforcements, Constant Méheut (Reporting from Kyiv, which means the report is heavily coloured by Ukr Mil Intel), NYT, 2024-08-09
This NYT piece was not used for this article. It is included because it validates the dates of events.
Ukraine taking heavy losses in Kursk – Moscow, RT, 2024-08-09
According to the ministry, Ukraine has lost up to 945 soldiers as well as 102 armored vehicles, including 12 tanks and 17 armored personnel carriers. The figures include more than 280 troops and 27 armored vehicles destroyed over the past 24 hours in areas bordering Kursk Region, Moscow added.
Oliver Boyd-Barrett: Stalling in Kursk, Waiting In Tehran, Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia (originally Boyd-Barrett's substack), 2024-08-10
The Bulge and Kursk: A Comparison, Stephen Bryen, Weapons & Strategy, 2024-08-11
Ukrainian invasion of Russian border territories: Day four, Gilbert Doctorow, Gilbert Doctorow, 2024-08-11
Ukraine war, Gilbert Doctorow joins George Szamuely as guests, Press TV, 2024-08-10
[US] NATO v Russia: 2014 - 2024, YesXorNo, 2024-03-09
Russia. Is. At. War., YesXorNo, 2024-03-23
The Ukraine War is an Era Defining Event, YesXorNo, 2023-08-22
The Kursk Battle: The Eastern Front’s Turning Point, Jonas Goldstein, Warfare History Network, 2003-02
There are plenty of good resources on the Battle of Kursk. Above is an archived version to ease the reading by blocking the popups. :)
The Heat🔥All In Offensive Stopped⚔️Culmination Of The Battle For Donbas. Military Summary 2024.08.11 [JjHCoNyGCeA], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-08-11
The Heat🔥 Chaotic Battles In The Kursk Region ⚔️ More Forces Are Coming💥 Military Summary 2024.08.09 [PwB41BHSXYY]
The Heat🔥Ukrainian Offensive Continues⚔️Pokrovsk Front Is Collapsing. Military Summary For 2024.08.8 [cElCu2RmGvs]
The Russians Bring Up Reinforcements⚔️The Ukrainians Bring Up Artillery💥 Military Summary 09.08.2024 [1lZY4n9cEzw]
Zelensky & NATO gamble everything on Kursk Nuclear Power Plant [bDjBGAYA3YM], The Duran, 2024-08-09
Col. Douglas Macgregor ： Is Israel On the Ropes？ [g_-WTBF_-Wc], Judging Freedom, 2024-08-08
Copyleft: CC0
Problem is NATO “ strategy” is a collection of stupid ideologues with no practical sense. This isn’t constructive for ending the war. And Ukraine can’t win it. It’s senseless.
Evil will meet its match when it meets itself, and it surely will. So glad that I am on the opposite side.