The Firmament vs. Quicksand: Vision
Short and Medium Term Vision
[Image: a frame from “The Gaggle” interviewing Pepe Escobar in which we have differing facial expressions by the participants.]
Publication date: 2022-10-18
Update 2022-10-19: a few new interesting video references are provided, including Paul Keating’s discussion and others.
This, in essence, is an “Interesting Articles” publication, though focuses more on video interviews. It also includes a little “news”.
General Logistics
The new singular unified command of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine is lead by General Sergey Surovikin. His experience extends back to the war in Georgia in 2008 and he lead Russia's air force in their assistance to Syria. His name, in Russian, is claimed to be like "trouble" or "force". He has been donated the moniker "Armageddon", which is laughable.
Reports indicate that this new Field Marshall has been given carte blanche, minus nuclear weapons. His actions, post the attack on the Kerch to Crimea bridge, amount to 9 straight days of missile and drone attacks across all of Ukraine. As in all wars, there have been civilian casualties. From a military analytics perspective we learn a few things. Russia can attack anywhere. They are not even using their hypersonic weapons, just "cruise missiles" and drones. Ukraine has suffered attacks against the headquarters of its intelligence service, the SBU. Electrical transformers and railway yards have been hit.
This new commander understands logistics. He is using what he chooses to very effectively target decision centres and the core logistical infrastructure of his opponent. See it for what it is: a sustained campaign against the decision making and logistical infrastructure of Ukraine's military. He commented that he is disinterested in sacrificing Russian soldiers to NATO armed groups. His agenda is unconditional surrender by Ukraine. Phase 1 is to undermine their logistics. As any military leader knows, logistics is on par with morale. Logistics is hot meals, ammunition and artillery support, without which morale disappears.
There have been many calls that "this is what should have happened in February". Russia chose for reasons known only by its National Security Council and military leadership to take the strategy they did 7 months ago. What is clear now is that a very different response is being pursued under General Surovikin's leadership. The limits are removed (except nuclear). 300 000 members of Russia's reserves have been called to duty: no more “tip-toeing through the tulips”.
Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor
Macgregor has made a name for himself with articles in The American Conservative and interviews on countless alternative media podcasts. Ask yourself, why? Why would Macgregor equipped with a solid pension come out and stand for attack and ridicule running his analysis against the establishment narrative? Is he making money from this? I hope so. Does it matter to him? I know not, but expect it is irrelevant. So, why stick one's head above the parapet?
Perhaps Macgregor saw a slew of misrepresentation and lies being issued, and having military training wished to offer some more informed commentary.
There are individuals who have a status of financial security or previous positions which make them difficult for the media to run ad hominem attacks against. Retired diplomats, retired military commanders, retired politicians or senior journalists fit the bill. These are those to whom I look for interesting analyses.
Who Knows What is Happening in Ukraine? The Locals.
The UAF (Ukrainian Armed Forces) are continuing attacks against Khreson, which are costly and achieve little. They seem to be losing Bakhmut. Battle lines elsewhere seem largely stable. Meanwhile, Russian missiles and drones rain destruction behind their lines.
Reports of the situation on the civilian side of Donbas can be found by local independent journalists like Eva Bartlett and Patrick Lancaster, among others. RT publish regular reports. Their reporters are excellent. One may hold their narrative a little removed. They are a national broadcaster and need to answer to their government funder.
The Pepe Escobar Problem
Mr. Escobar, a Brazilian who has worked in southeast and especially central Asia for more than two decades, presents a problem. His unapproved narrative winds back to the BRI/Asian Integration/Mackinder story which this newsletter has echoed. The problem is reach; how is his informed analysis so suppressed? The answer is "who cares!" We know how to find his work at The Cradle or The Unz Review.
His interviews are so interesting. The restrictions of text are shed. He speaks in his jovial style of all of the complexities within his purview. One can take his views, along with those of Macgregor and the reports from Bartlett and others to form a nuanced understanding of current events and their place on the geostrategic space.
A Geostrategic Thinking Former Australian Prime Minister Rides Again
The Honorable Paul Keating, former Australian Minister of the Treasury and later Prime Minister has also been putting his head above the parapet. He speaks of geopolitical strategy from an Australian perspective. One of his great lines is that Australia needs to find its place/security in Asia, not from it. In a recent interview hosted by La Trobe University he delivers many informed analyses. Included among this thoughtful conversation are worthy quips.
Regarding Fukuyama’s declaration at the end of the Cold War that this was the end of history, Keating responds:
The 'end of history' didn't last long.
Regarding the USA’s treatment of its allies, Keating declares:
The US and people who represent the US these days are not interested in thinking allies. They basically have an open book for sycophants.
Mr. Keating makes many serious comments, one of which regarded a potential conflict over Taiwan:
So, China would see every amphibious vessel coming from the United States, whether its Guam, or whether its San Diego, or whether its Honalulu, they’d see them and they would sink them. The chances of the Americans having a victory over Taiwan is nil, in my opinion. And why would we [Australia] want to be a part of that defeat?
See below for the “Ideas and Society” video.
Sources
TG 901: The Gaggle Talks To Pepe Escobar, The Gaggle, 2022-10-15
There's No Chance of Negotiating an End to The Ukraine War, Clayton Morris, Redacted interviews Douglas Macgregor, Douglas Macgregor, 20220-10-14
Ideas and Society | Australia and China: A conversation with Paul Keating, La Trobe University, uploaded 2022-10-18
SCOTT RITTER - WARRIOR UPDATE - REVENGE OF THE KAMIKAZE DRONES (ROKFIN EXCLUSIVE), Garland Nixon interviews Scott Ritter (the first 21 minutes), Garland Nixon, 2022-10-19
CrossTalk | Rising Global South, CrossTalk, RT, 2022-10-19
Other Interesting Publications
Why the US must press for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Jack F. Matlock Jr. (former Ambassador), Responsible Statecraft, 2022-10-17
The Neocons and the Woke Left Are Joining Hands and Leading Us to Woke War III | Opinion, David Sacks, Newsweek, 2022-10-04
And Now for Something Completely Different; Decline and fall of Western Civilization part one, Philip Giraldi, Unz Review, 2022-10-18
Culture
The best cover of John Lennon’s “Imagine”. The timing, escalation and voice …
I am not a sound or video engineer. However, I cannot see how this could be post produced. Look at the timing of the vocals and sound levels at the microphone. There is even the missing of a beat during the first creshendo.
This is a live performance. Gaga is a capable pianist for the piece and has an excellent voice. This is all she needed. She has expressed how this was an important, perhaps most important cover she wished to perform at a major event. This is it. This is her rendention, live. It is tenderly powerful. Recall the date. The civil war in Donbas had been in process for around 6 months.
This is an artistic and political performance. “Imagine”.
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