The Inevitability and Unsustainability of the Ukraine Conflict

Fighting Russia to the Last Ukrainian means more Russia and less Ukraine

[Image: borrowed from the Patrick Lawrence article at ScheerPost (see sources).]

Published 2023-01-12

Update 2023-01-13: Added The Duran interviewing Larry Johnson to sources.

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Inevitability

The excellent essayist Patrick Lawrence has authored a piece for SheerPost in which he considers the admissions by both former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President Hollande. Both former leaders admit that the Minsk Accords were a play for time to arm Ukraine. The diplomacy was duplicitous; an outright deception. Lawrence warns of a world in which reliability in diplomatic discussion disappears.

The article is well written and referenced, as I have come to expect from Patrick. He fails, I believe, to take the discussion one step further. He cites that the current Ukrainian president was elected with a more than 70% vote based on a platform of negotiating a peace in Donbas, which implies diplomacy with the Russian Federation.

If one places these facts side by side one sees that neither France nor Germany are interested in respecting the democratic will of the peoples of Ukraine. This cavalier attitude to professed principles one has come to expect from the leader of NATO, the USA. To also see it from both France and Germany is worrisome. This is to be added to their callous attitude to diplomacy.

Unsustainability

Independent analyst Brian Berletic, aka The New Atlas, issues video reports. In his most recent, as of the date of writing (see sources), he examines the latest traunch of military hardware which the USA Department of Defence (DoD) has announced will be delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Mr. Berletic takes the time to comment on each element of the long list of items to be transferred to the AFU. For each point he analyses why the equipment is "better than nothing, but only just".

The first issue is training. AFU personnel are not trained for the two types of USA lightly armored vehicles nor for either of each of the types from France or Germany. The second problem are the paltry numbers. The vehicles delivered will have no effect on the status of forces. The third issue for these vehicles is that they are countered by artillery, drones, mortars, rockets or even heavy machine guns. For the offered artillery ammunition, it will last less than two weeks. The majority of the "new" artillery are smaller calibre with a shorter range. This is the NATO contribution to an artillery war of attrition which Ukraine is losing. Too little and too late to assist Ukraine.

These problems are compounded by repairs having to be performed in Poland which is 1 000 Km away from the front lines, with an equivalent return trip, while Ukraine's railway systems are degraded due to Russia's attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid.

The USA is using the generated conflict for several purposes: an attempted coup in Russia, just poking the bear because they like doing that, and generating business for their military industrial complex as they “gift” (in a lend-lease sense) old weaponry to Ukraine. This is the monetization of war as noted by USMC Major General Smedley Butler and many others. War is an horrific business, or to quote Pope Francis, funds the “blood soaked arms manufacturers”.

The cruise missiles which Russia has been using to attack the Ukrainian electric grid are expensive. Their targets of destruction must be at least equally valuable. This is why Russia is targeting transformer sub-stations. These transformers were built by the USSR (i.e Russia). Ukraine can neither replace them quickly nor easily. They are also very expensive. Here we see Russian military planning. This supports the commonly accepted view, also echoed by Mr. Berletic, that this is a war of attrition.

Brian also highlights that advances by Russian military and its local allies around Bakhmut display that they are winning this war. Despite all of the western military support, Ukraine is losing ground. Ukraine has lost 20% of its lands, and the most resource rich at that.

Brian highlights an article by a retired USA Colonel who confirms that whenever the tactical situation is not to Russia's advantage she withdraws to preserve her mobile assets (soldiers and armaments). The cases of Kherson and Kharkov are two notable examples. As the Colonel notes, this is the key strategy for a war of attrition, and this informs us that this is exactly Russia’s method.

Douglas Macgregor and others have predicted an imminent major offensive by Russia. He declared that two weeks of temperatures below zero are a required precursor to freeze the ground. Recent videos by iEarlGrey (Mike Jones, see sources) and his collaborating translator Marsha in both Lugansk and Donetsk reported recent temperatures of between -15 and -10 Celsius. The ground is freezing.

To return to Mr. Berletic, he identified the lack of industrial production in the West to support this war. He reported that the USA DoD has contracted the British arms manufacturer BAE Systems to produce armored infantry vehicles at their highest production capacity. This amounts to 60 vehicles per year. This is woefully short of the loss rate. The same is true for ammunition as mentioned above. The USA DoD recently purchased 100 000 artillery rounds from South Korea. This demonstrates that USA/NATO have not the military industrial capacity to match Russia's.

This lack of production support, coupled with the massive loss of material and trained soldiers is the cause of Ukraine’s puppet leader pleading for western help. The former actor is playing to a script which is based on a truth. Ukraine is in deep trouble.

Wishful Thinking

While this supply to Ukraine will generate "back-fill" orders for the USA military industrial complex from which they will profit, it cannot sustain the AFU to stop Russia, let alone defeat her and her allies. There is an additional subtle point, which is that not only is Russia playing a wily game of attrition she is also rebuilding in cities damaged during the conflict. Mariupol, Donetsk City and Lugansk's regional capital are examples.

If all one does is consume Western media one would not be aware of this. Not only iEarlGrey but also others like Eva K. Bartlett prove this in their reports. The territories which voted to join Russia are being rebuilt.

The current destruction of Ukraine is a deliberate by-product of the USA’s desire to crash the Russian economy to achieve “regime change”. The newer members of the USA’s foreign policy or intelligence establishment fail to understand at least two elements of reality: Russia is huge and has massive natural and manufacturing resources, and she has the support of China, her production capacity, and other members of the SCO/BRICS nations. The myopia of the USA’s foreign policy establishment is on display.

During WWII Russia essentially out-produced Germany to win the war in Europe. She dismantled, transported and then re-constructed factories from her west behind the Ural mountains to support this production. The “game” of winning wars by production is nothing new to Russia.

The Months Ahead

With her 380 000 new reserves (300 000 reservists + 80 000 volunteers) Russia will bide her time. Please note the 80 000 volunteers, an additional quarter of the call to arms.

Bakhmut must be taken. This leaves the last line of defense in Donetsk for Ukraine as the line on the western edge of Donetsk. The two cities which define the edges of this defense line will also be taken, not stormed, but won by attrition. Following this, which may take months, the area of the undefended west up to the Dniper river will be de-mined and controlled by Russia.

If this is done, as I expect, Kharkov can be pressured from its east, south and north. Here I can see Russia doing a little "storming". Russia wants this city and its civilians want Russia to take it. Gonzalo Lira reports that most of the population which supported Ukraine left months ago.

The unknown is what Russia decides to do in the south with Mykolaiev and Odessa. These two oblasts, I believe, are the deciding factor in this conflict. As a guess, I think that we'll end up with a Minsk II type situation for these oblasts where regional autonomy is the key. They may remain a part of Ukraine, thus allowing her to use the Black Sea for import/export. Their regional governments will be influenced by Russia. Thus, the Ukrainian economy can be strangled at will by Russia.

Russia does not want a destroyed Ukraine. She wants a viable Ukraine which is neutral and sensitive to Russia's interests. The next step is the new European security architecture which Russia submitted to both the USA and NATO. They both ignored the overture before the overt Russian intervention in Ukraine.

Predicting the future of human affairs is notoriously unreliable.

What do you think may come?

Sources

Patrick Lawrence: Europe and the Legitimization of Deception, Patrick Lawrence, ScheerPost, 2023-01-08

Oh Christ, the cook is dead, Spike Milligan, 1977-02-28

Latest US Arms Shipment to Ukraine Cannot Solve Kiev's Fundamental Problem, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2023-01-07

Orthodox Christmas Day In Donetsk - Delivering MORE Gifts!, iEarlGrey, published 2023-01-08

Command upgrade w/Larry Johnson (Live), Mercouris interviews Johnson, The Duran, 2023-01-12

Culture

Ben Harper - I’ll Rise (official audio), Ben Harper, uploaded to youtube 2017-07-24

This album is magnificent.

Note that this track is Harper, a chorus and one piano. That’s it. The lyrics couple with the melody.

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