The New Primakov Triangle Invites the US into the Multi-Nodal World
Its been a busy diplomatic week
Published: 2025-04-12
Updated 2025-04-13: Positive results are reported by both sides following the Witkoff-Araqchi meeting on Saturday April 12th, 2025, in Muscat, Oman.
A Flurry of Late in the Week Meetings
On Thursday (April 10th, 2025):
the bewildered European political leadership, led by the E3 (UK, France and Germany), gathered at NATO HQ, Brussels, under the flag of Sir Starmer's inspiringly named Coalition of the Willing.
The US and Russia continued their discussion for normalizing diplomatic relations at a meeting in Istanbul.
On Friday:
European defense ministers gathered at NATO HQ, joined via video link by US Secretary of Defense Hegseth, approved a few trinkets for Kiev. They were valued at just over the 20 billion dollars gifted in 2024 to allow EU foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas to declare "We are already doing more — and we can go even further".
A weak Ukrainian delegation led by Taras Kachka, a deputy economy minister in charge of trade, and representatives from the ministries of economy and justice arrived in Washington D.C. to negotiate an even more brutal Minerals (and Whatever Else We Can Get Our Hands On) deal for no security guarantees with the US.
US President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg at 10:00 (local time) where he was met by Kirill Dmitriyev (CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF)) before talks with Russian Federation President Putin.
On Saturday:
Witkoff is scheduled to fly on to Oman where he will negotiate with Iran over Trump's NSPM-2/Maximum Pressure campaign.
Results
Thursday
Nothing has changed for the Coalition of the Willing Lost. Their "concrete" plans are still dependent upon either a non-existent "US backstop" or a non-existent peace. One suspects that their meetings have more to do with political probing for how any future European defense force will be lead and funded. In the meantime, they are issuing the same blather blaming Russia for not surrendering in a war it is winning.
Ian Proud informs us of the disastrous state of no "fiscal space" to fund the defense expenditure with which the US has tasked the Europeans. Germany, due to laws its soon to be appointed Chancellor Merz is working to remove, is the only important solvent nation. Many of the rest have debt to GDP ratios over 100%. The financial instrumentation likely to be assembled are a bonds/loan fund for the EU REARM project, and a Rearmament Bank in Britain.
Recall that despite the poisonously tempting $300 billion Russian Central Bank foreign assets sitting in various Western banks, the Belgian Prime Minister recently forbade thieving the lion's share sitting in EuroClear. That theft would further undermine European financial institutions.
Friday
At the now British and German led UDCG meeting, the trinket list approved amounted to diddly squat. The Brits gave up some odds and sods. The German commitment is to be delivered over 4 years. By that time, Ukraine will have surrendered and the Russian military will be toasting its toes in Odessa.
[From the graphix team in Kiev]
In Washington D.C., no statement has been issued by the White House of the ongoing discussions with the Ukrainian delegation. The "deal" was apparently leaked to the New York Times. Antiwar summarized for us the vice in which Kiev finds itself.
the deal offered by Washington will give the US access to all profits from sales of Ukraine’s natural resources, including gas, oil and rare earth minerals.
Under the current offer put forward by the White House, Kiev will pay the US 4% interest [on hundreds of billions claimed by Trump to have been loaned to Kiev].
[Referring to the NYT] the deal will also give the US the “right of first offer” on new ventures and Washington would have veto power on any third country looking to invest in Ukraine’s natural resources.
The offer does not include a security guarantee for Ukraine.
[Antiwar]
Antiwar concluded simply:
The current deal Trump has put on the table is far harsher than the one that was ... not signed [in February] after Trump, Zelensky, and Vice President JD Vance argued in front of the media in the Oval Office.
[Antiwar]
Over in St. Petersburg, by 21:55 local time the Kremlin's report on the meeting with Witkoff consisted of acknowledging it happened and stating only that:
The meeting is focused on the aspects of the Ukraine crisis settlement.
[Kremlin]
This informs us that other very important, and obvious, matters were discussed, to which we shall come.
Given the meaningless list of trinkets for Ukraine, the directionless meetings by the E3, that Trump wants an end to the war (because of negotiations and statements by Hegseth) and the recent series of advances by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Novorossiya, the Kremlin's direction in the war is as clear as daylight. Russia holds all of the cards. It is solving the problem of the Western armed Ukrainian Nazis on the battlefield while diplomacy progresses, as Chas Freeman predicted would happen months ago.
The diplomatic attentions of Russia and the US are currently directed at Iran.
The JCPOA, from which Trump withdrew the US during his first term, expires in October. The threat of the UN Security Council-proof snapback mechanism expires with it. Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which would take 3 months to complete. Timelines converge around July/August for a diplomatic settlement before the E3 need to be involved to trigger the snapback mechanism. Having withdrawn from the JCPOA, the US can't do this itself.
The dithering Europeans have a potential card to play, and it may be costly for the US to need one of them to trigger the snapback provisions. The road for Trump to avoid that cost is via the Kremlin which is the primary reason that Witkoff was in St. Petersburg. He will certainly have received clear advice from Putin on what Russia can contribute to a settlement. Witkoff may have also availed himself of Russia's secure channels with Tehran to deliver a private message before the direct or indirect meeting in Oman.
Analysis
Europe, having denied itself cost-effective Russian energy, is paying the US triple the rate to replace it. The US is luring manufacturing from Europe to the US to re-industrialize itself, which is de-industrializing Europe. Europe is now on a path to indebt itself further, purchasing expensive, ineffective weapons from the US. A change of strategy must come, for there is none on this course.
Russia and Iran, however, do have a strategy to deal with the US. Pepe Escobar recently labeled them, with their strategic partner China, the new Primakov triangle (with Iran swapping out India in the old version which was the RIC in BRICS). A major dilemma for both Moscow and Tehran is the utility of signing agreements with the US. History demonstrates that each new US administration (or regime, if you like) cares not one whit about whatever the previous signed. Thus, agreements have a maximum lifetime of 3 to 7 years, which is far too short to be of any use.
Their new solution to this problem is to invite US industry into their national equivalents, on their terms. These industries align with the policy directions outlined in numerous US think tanks. This newsletter echoed Brian Berletic's mention of the seeming influence of Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 on Trump's foreign policy. Project 2025, along with others, emphasize the importance of US influence over the global energy market and the importance of securing access to critical minerals. These are industry sectors which Russia and Iran possess and are inviting US counterparts to join. If successful, this will create a proxy lobbying influence in Washington D.C. against abandoning agreements from which the US industries are profiting.
On a wider scale, BRICS+ is inviting the US to join it in the multi-nodal world.
Attempting to Humiliate Iran
On Nima Alkhorshid's Dialogue Works, new guest Trita Parsi joined Ambassador Chas Freeman and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson (see Sources) to discuss what amounts to Trump attempting to resurrect the JCPOA in some new form. Parsi works at the Quincy Institute (QI), one of the many US foreign policy think tanks. This newsletter occasionally refers to articles from its publication Responsible Statecraft. Sometimes these are of ridicule, for QI does echo the nonstrategic desires of its sponsors. At other times it publishes interesting articles, with the one by Ian Proud above, being one example.
Parsi is one of the more historically and culturally informed foreign policy analysts in the US for Iranian affairs. In the discussion he offered an analysis which gathered vocal praise from both Freeman and Wilkerson. His advice was to conceptualize the potential nuclear capacity, the actual missile and drone capacity and the "Axis of Resistance" foreign groups as the collective security strategy of Iran. Consequently, if Iran agrees to reduce the capacity of one component, it will strengthen others. US demands to remove all of these aspects of Iran's defense strategy are obviously a non-starter. The US can choose from among them which it wishes to minimize and expect the Iranian reaction for the others. The natural focus is Iran's pre-nuclear weapon status. Iran will again submit itself to inspections by the IAEA to enforce non-weapons status, so long as the US meets its side of the bargain, providing access to trade markets.
During JCPOA 1.0, the US never reduced its economic sanctions. The economic partnerships Iran is offering with US businesses are its strategy to achieve sanctions relief. The US businesses, essentially, get to tax Iranian energy or mineral exports, but the exports are possible.
Trump's bluster of sending B-52 and B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia was exposed by Wilkerson for the bluff it is. Those bombers could fly from much farther away. At Diego Garcia they are without effective air defense. The airborne refuellers relocated there are from Gulf States who have informed the US that they want no part in any attack on Iran. They know Iran can, and Iran has informed them it will, destroy their oil infrastructure if they participate in an attack. This would be game over for the Monarchies.
Genocidaire-in-Chief
During Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington D.C. on Monday April 7th, 2025, Trump informed him that any war with Iran can only come after the negotiations he announced in Netanyahu's presence. Thereafter, he declared that Israel must be involved in, must carry the risk, of any attack on Iran. He refused to do Israel's dirty work for it.
Netanyahu is buffeted by a stormy political sea in Israel. He just fired an airforce reservist who signed a letter with 1,000 others calling for an end to the war (genocide) against Palestine. The number of casualties and the prevalence of PTSD among the IDF has been heavily under-reported (censored). Netanyahu is being forced to appear in court regularly defending himself in a foreign bribery case. He has not only sections of the IDF against him, but also sections of the internal security service (Shin Bet) after firing its head, Ronan Barr. As Crooke has reported, there is animosity between the European and Asian Jewish communities in Israel. Israel's economy is in tatters due to reservists fighting instead of working and Ansar Allah's blockade of Israeli commercial shipping, and ships owned by Israelis in the Red Sea, bound for Israel.
Trump is still issuing meaningless bluster of more sanctions on Russia. Nobody takes this seriously. His threats against Iran are dangerous, but the consequences of them would be a collapsed global economy and a rapid end to the US Imperium. They are dangerous and hollow, at once.
While all of this bluster and diplomacy is happening in Washington D.C., Brussels, St. Petersburg and Muscat, the IDF are still murdering children in Gaza with US and E3 political and US and E3 weapons and/or intelligence support every day.
Update
The results of the Witkoff-Araqchi talks in Muscat were positive. Both sides expressed confidence in their dialogue and agreed to meet in a week.
Iran, US conclude 'constructive' nuclear talks in Oman, agree to meet again; Al Jazeera; Al Jazeera; 2025-4-12
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Sources
Europe Pledges $23 Billion in Military Support for Ukraine; Kyle Anzalone; Antiwar; 2025-04-11
Allies pledge €21B in weapons for Ukraine while denouncing Russian attacks; politico.eu; Archive.today; 2025-04-11
Germany announces fresh military aid to Ukraine; DW; Archive.today; 2025-04-11
Ukraine allies hold talks to secure a non-existent peace; politico.eu; Archive.today; 2025-04-11
European rearmament: Shuffling fake money around a monopoly board?; Ian Proud; Responsible Statecraft; 2025-04-11
Are President Trump'S Political Chances Longer Than Roman Emperor Heliogabalus (218-222 Ad)? Is Kirill Dmitriev Aiming To Succeed President Putin By Playing The American Card?; John Helmer; Dances with Bears; 2025-04-10
New Syrsky Interview Sheds Light on Upcoming Russian Operations + Recruitment Figures; Simplicius; Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge; 2025-04-11
SITREP 4/6/25: Hint of Spring as Russian Pressure Rises on Every Front; Simplicius; Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge; 2025-04-07
Meeting with US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff; Kremlin; Kremlin; 2025-04-11
Steve Witkoff's Iran mission holds seamless possibilities; M. K. Bhadrakumar; Indian Punchline; 2025-04-11
Israel Fires Reservists Who Signed Letter Calling for End of Gaza War; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-10
US, Ukrainian Officials Resume Talks on Natural Resources Deal; Kyle Anzalone; Antiwar; 2025-04-11
US, Russia Hold Talks in Istanbul on Normalizing Relations, Say Progress Made; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-10
Stepan Bandera's Sinister MI6 Alliance Exposed; Kit Klarenberg; Kit’s Newsletter; 2025-03-23
Larry Wilkerson,Chas Freeman & Trita Parsi: Iran Prepares f/ US Showdown — Powered by Russia & China; Alkhorshid interviews Wilkerson, Freeman & Parsi; Dialogue Works; 2025-04-09
Declining Europe vs Rising BRICS; Glenn Diesen interviews Alex Krainer; Glenn Diesen; 2025-04-09
Alex Krainer proposed a very interesting hypothesis for the real target of the US-Yemen war.
Ray McGovern and John Helmer: On the Edge: Iran Ready for the Worst with America; Alkhorshid interviews McGovern & Helmer; Dialogue Works; 2025-04-09
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