The Odessa Moment
Or, why I listen to Scott Ritter
[Image: a frame from The Gaggle interview.]
Publication: 2023-01-06
Slow to Saddle, Quick to Ride
During a discussion (see Sources) between Szamuely, Lavelle and Ritter, Scott identifies both the key point and core Russian thinking involved in the disaster which is the war in Ukraine. He roles out the adage that Russia, in military matters, is "slow to harness, quick to ride".
As with Ritter, and Russia's military, I'll take a moment to build the background for the point. Ritter alludes that Russia has not just the 300 000 reservist call to arms but also 120 000 volunteers. He refers to sports, when a team or individual are training for a significant competition; its about peak performance at a moment. Mr. Ritter translates the recruitment into 15 divisions. He claims that this is it. It is over.
Ukraine have a ratio of losses to recruitment and training which is horrific. When these 15 divisions arrive there is nothing Ukraine can do. He supports the argument by citing Ukraine's defense minister calling for 300 tanks, 500 armored fighting vehicles, 500 artillery pieces and essentially unlimited ammunition. This was the defence minister's response to an "how can you win" question during an interview with The Economist. This is reality.
What level of historical stupidity is required to start a land war with Russia? Bonaparte and Hitler both tried and failed. Yes, Russia is slow to saddle, but when she mobilizes her industry and people she is fearsome. Nazi Germany learned this the hard way in 1944 as Operation Bagration began. Today's Russia honors the sacrifice of her peoples during WWII. Every family has stories of their grandfather or grand-uncle or grandmother who took upon their shoulders the defense of Mother Russia. The settlement that ends this conflict will be on Russia's terms. Her people will accept nothing less.
The reason that the Odessa Moment is so important is because it is a switch. This is the WWIII of actual military, rather than just economic war. Ritter describes a methodology, a strategic awareness, within Russia's planning. There are several "flashpoints"; Poland, Romania and Moldova. Russia will take its referenda based acquired territory. She does not want to inflame eastern Europe. Following the USA's refusal to respond to the draft security treaties delivered to the USA and NATO by Russia, she is calling the bluff and bluster and putting her military and economic cards on the table. If military or economic planners are concerned about Russia adding a half a million to their military they should ask what China can raise from her 1.4 billion with all of her manufacturing might.
The Valdai Speech Returns
Ritter refers to a cryptic response by President Putin to a question by an Hungarian journalist about visiting Odessa, during the Q&A session of the president’s Valdai speech. This is Ritter's key insight. Putin encourages the journalist to visit Odessa, a beautiful city. He also describes Odessa as an apple, of peace or conflict. It is the place which could trigger this potential WWIII. The USA's 101st Airborne are still in Romania a few kilometres from Odessa.
Every decent military analyst knows that Russia will win this conflict. They also know that there are a few "flashpoints" which could seriously escalate this already horrid situation. Odessa is one.
There are two historical reasons for emotion to sway rationality regarding Odessa. During WWII the Red Army abandoned Odessa when the city was attacked by the Wehrmacht. Russia fled to garrison Sevastopol, Crimea, to return two years later to the city which had been occupied and ruled by Nazi Germany. In 2014 more than 50 civilians were burned alive in the Trades Union Building by neo-Nazi Ukrainians. While Russian military and political planners are unlikely to be emotionally influenced by this history, the Russia people may well be.
Russia’s political leaders will need to manage this potential.
Emotion and Politics
The reason I listen to Ritter, especially in an open format like The Gaggle interview, is because he, like Macgregor, actually feels war. He applies his skills as a military analyst. In parallel, he feels the grief and horror of war. In this open setting he lets his emotion take hold and screams of frustration at the planned events which created the current conflict.
If, as Clausewitz asserted, war is politics by other means, we have a lot of work to do to fix politics.
Sources
TG 983: The Gaggle Talks To Scott Ritter, Szamuely and Lavelle interview Scott Ritter, The Gaggle, 2023-01-06
U.S. Media Gives Zelensky Massive Tongue Bath, Aaron Maté interviews Scott Ritter, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-01-03
War-Crazed Former CIA Head Wants U.S. Troops In Ukraine, Aaron Maté interviews Scott Ritter, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-01-04
$110 BILLION For Ukraine War Is 100% Corruption, Aaron Maté interviews Scott Ritter, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-01-03
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