The Oreshnik 36 Gun and Intra-Western Battles

Cry havoc, again!

Published: 2024-11-27

Updated 2024-12-03: Added A. Crooke’s article as it elegently expresses the paradigm shift which the Oreshnik missile manifested.

Updated 2024-12-07:

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The 36 Gun

On Consortium News' "ESCALATION" discussion show, Scott Ritter informed the audience of the level of declaratory caution which the Russian Federation took in testing its new Oreshnik medium range, gliding, hypersonic (Mach 9-12) multi-missile missile. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation set the new missile on its launch pad, facing west towards Ukraine as opposed to east in the normal direction for test launches, for 36 hours. Their purpose was to allow US surveillance satellites to observe the process of launch preparation and know that it did not involve the types of units and processes which Russia uses when handling nuclear weapons.

Their call to their US counterparts 30 minutes before launch was for courtesy. The US already knew it was a non-nuclear weapon.

Experts such as Prof. Ted Postol are examining all available verified observation data to develop as best an understanding as possible of the system and its munitions. We know it uses a different, newer, mechanism to hold and release its six independently thrusted and maneuverable missiles. We know its speed. We know that the combined unit (before separation) can maneuver and glide. We know that each of the six missiles' six sub-munitions are purely kinetic. This in itself is very interesting. They are very large "bullets". In the end, Oreshnik is a 36-gun.

Postol noted that the kinetic energy of the "bullets" exceeds the chemical energy of the equivalent mass of TNT. Bullets have no fragile parts, nor complications like trigger mechanisms. This is classic Russian engineering. I am reminded of the 45 degree sloped armor of the T-34 tank. By sloping the sheet metal, they achieved 1.4 times the effective armor for the same weight: simple and effective. For the bullet sub-munitions, they could not be simpler or safer, until they reach their hypersonic speeds.

A Head-on collision

An analogy may help in understanding the power of each "bullet". Most people can picture the damage and danger of two cars colliding, head on, at 60 mph (or 90 Km/h). If each "bullet" weighs only 50 Kg, and is moving at 3 Km/s (Mach 9) each has the kinetic energy of 60 head on collisions (with cars of mass 1500 Kg). Increase the mass and you increase the number of "head on collisions" equivalent. A 100 Kg "bullet" is 120 "car crashes". [Kinetic energy = 1/2 * mass of object * speed * speed; it is the squaring of the speed which dominates the energy calculation]

Because of the speed and maneuverability of the glide vehicle and missiles, they are beyond the capacity of the West's defence systems. At the point of separation into "bullets" it almost doesn't matter. These are more likely to destroy missiles trying to intercept them than the other way around.

Although the test was launched from a launch pad, this is not their design. They are meant to be launched from a road vehicle, meaning anywhere in Russia where one can drive something this massive.

After the success of the test launch, Russian Federation President Putin announced that the new missile is now in production.

Yeah, so?

The emergence of the Oreshnik means quite a lot and not much. It is a devastating [1], accurate, controlled, area of effect munition. It is designed to destroy facilities, like missile or tank factories or launch facilities or repair shops, or ammunition depots. I imagine it would do nasty things to airports or shipping terminals or major railway stations. M. K. Bhadrakumar saw another obvious potential target:

Serial production implies that dozens of Oreshnik are in the process of being deployed, which means that no US / NATO staff group and no Anglo-American target intelligence unit in bunkers in Kiev or Lvov is safe any longer.

If I were Ukraine, I'd target one at a section of the Kerch Straight Bridge. But, neither Ukraine nor NATO has these, which is the point. Months ago, a discussion between German Air-Force officers on how to attack the bridge with Taurus missiles was captured and published. The attack would be a complex operation involving many munitions. It would need to account for Russia's air defence systems. With Oreshnik, much of this complexity would be removed. Fire and forget. No bridge section.

With Oreshnik Russia can respond, without nuclear weapons or massive explosive weapons, to the escalations which the US, UK and France have chosen to apply in the conflict. NATO nations lack this escalation capacity without nuclear weapons. This is the significance of the new missile system: Russia has increased its non-nuclear escalation response capacity. One should not forget that Ukraine's power supply was already entirely vulnerable to Russian destruction.

Until Russia attacks aggressive NATO nations' targets (for example weapons production facilities, or nuclear-capable launch sites like those in Poland or Romania), these belligerent NATO states have no reason to stop provoking. However, Russia can withstand this provocation and just keep winning on the battle fronts in Ukraine, a topic to which we'll come.

Russia is very unlikely to "over react". Such would provide the political justification after which the UK or France lust to send "troops". All that does is escalate things further, closer and closer to nuclear weapons. This is the Anglo-European establishment's current mission. Consistent with previous behaviour, Russia is very unlikely to take the bait.

[1]: An analysis of the weapon by Prof. Postol (see sources) indicated that the sub-muntions likely create craters of around 4m diameter and 1-2m depth. They will be significantly degraded by having to penetrate re-inforced steel floors. In the test use of the munition the sub-munitions were not closely grouped but spread. Thus, the weapon is not “devastating”. Each sub-munition of approximately 50 to 100 Kg is 1.6 times more powerful than its equivalent in TNT. To compare to the FAB glide bombs which Russia has been using, each of the sub-munitions is significantly less powerful than a FAB-250. There is no defence, and it is a dangerous area of effect weapon, but not devastating.

Bernard from Moon of Alabama disagrees with Postol and suggests that the Oreshnik sub-munitions do have “bunker busting” capabilities.

Geopolitics

On Judging Freedom, Crooke zoomed out to take a global view. He linked the NATO v Russia war in Ukraine and the Zionist desire to foment a war with Iran, for the US to fight on its behalf, to BRICS. The attempted war with Iran would, theoretically, weaken China by removing Iran's oil exports to it. But, this is a fool's errand. If anyone launches a war on Iran the world's economies will lose oil supply from the Gulf. The US would also lose its major military bases in the region, like the home of the Fifth fleet. As Dmitri Orlov noted, Russia, Iran or China could destroy the entire US fleet in a few hours. They wont, because nuclear Armageddon would be the expected US response. This same restraint partially applies to the Pentagon who don't want to lose their fleet or foreign military bases and politically reconfigure southwest Asia in the process.

Ritter warned against blind hope in Trump to settle the Ukraine war. Yes, the US President-elect has declared his desire to end the lost war in Ukraine. US Vice-President-elect, Vance, has echoed this; to stop wasting resources on a war at a "stalemate". Ritter and others do not believe that Trump & co. will be able to accept Russia's minimal settlement position. If negotiations begins, they will certainly take time.

As Prof. Robinson noted, it is better to have people talking than not.

Currently, British, French, EU Commission ("van der Crazy" wing) and NATO players are resisting peace efforts by the new US government before it even takes office. Starmer and Macron have been leaking talks about "boots on the ground" and issuing reckless but empty threats about sending nuclear weapons to Ukraine. Biden forgave $4.7 billion in "loans" to Ukraine, revealing that ploy as the congressional scam it was always understood to be. The head of NATO’s Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer advised European businesses to cease trading with NATO's enemies (Russia, China, Iran, ...). EU Foreign & Security Policy High Representative designate Kaja Kallis is indistinguishable from her predecessor or the Commission leader in issuing the same ideological statements irrespective of reality.

Ms Kallas warned that Russia, Iran, North Korea, and - more covertly - China, want to change the rules-based world order. She called on the EU to respond to this threat alongside its closest allies and partners “without losing an inch of who we are”. On Russia’s war against Ukraine, she said that Ukraine’s victory is a priority for the EU, [and] argued in favour of Ukraine’s accession to the EU

[European Parliament News]

As Crooke noted in his article, the warmongering, xenophobic Anglo-European establishment have heard what Trump has said. They are creating havoc to prevent the new Trump regime implementing any of its agenda. Crooke provided the quote, Trump's shot across the bow, which caused the freak-out we are witnessing:

We need peace without delay … The foreign policy establishment keeps trying to pull the world into conflict. The greatest threat to Western civilization today is not Russia. It’s probably more than anything else ourselves… There must be a complete commitment to dismantling the entire Globalist Neo-con establishment that is perpetually dragging us into endless wars, pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad while they turn us into a Third World country and a Third World dictatorship right here at home. The State Department, the Defense bureaucracy, the intelligence services and all of the rest need to be completely overhauled and reconstituted. To fire the Deep Staters and put America first – we have to put America First.

Donald Trump, US President-elect

On the ground

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, past results will serve as excellent guides to the future. The recent rapid progress of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) in southern Donetsk continues. There is a gap in the Ukrainian defense belts to the southwest of Pokrovsk which the AFRF may attempt to exploit in the coming year.

[Source “Military Summary” 2024-11-25.]

If they reach that gap they can capture parts of southern the Dnipropetrovsk oblast and push west to flank the east-west defence line which protects northern Zaporozhye. Capturing the majority of the territory of the Zaporozhye oblast is an unstated but implied AFRF objective, as the October 2022 referendum held there returned a result to join Russia. Russia views this oblast as its own. In the mind of the Russian military, there is no difference between Kursk and Zaporozhye, or Donestsk, for that matter.

On the political front, a significant change may come if new elections are held in Ukraine. It was recently reported that preparations for electioneering had begun in some oblasts of Ukraine by some political parties. A recent Gallup poll measures the majority of Ukraine wishing for a negotiated end of hostilities.

A settlement of the conflict may involve all of these factors: military pressure, Trump's administration and an election. The sooner that happens, the better for Ukraine by any metric: no more deaths and casualties, land not yet captured by Russia retained etc.. The calculus only differs for the corrupt who are profiteering from the war.

In the meantime, Russia is providing an excellent service for both Iran and China draining NATO weapons stocks and supplies.

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Sources

The Long War to Reaffirm Western and Israeli Primacy Undergoes a Shape-Shift, Alastair Crooke, The Unz Review, 2024-12-02

The Counter-insurgency Is "On" Against Trump's 'storm', Alastair Crooke, The Unz Review, 2024-11-22

A defining moment in the Ukraine war, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 2024-11-24

Implications Of The Oreshnik Strike, Stephen Bryen, Weapons and Strategy, 2024-11-25

What is the West's end-goal in Ukraine?, Paul Robinson, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia (originally Canadian Dimension), 2024-11-25

UK dutifully follows Biden into Ukraine doom spiral, Anatol Lieven, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia (originally Responsible Statecraft), 2024-11-26

Russia's economy is tougher than it looks, no chance of a crisis in the next 3-5 years - CASE, Ben Aris, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2024-11-26

Report: France, UK Discuss the Idea of Sending Troops to Ukraine, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-11-25

White House Confirms It Authorized ATACMS Strikes on Russian Territory, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-11-25

Top NATO Official Tells European Businesses To Get Ready for War, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-11-25

Biden Administration Moves To Forgive $4.7 Billion in Loans to Ukraine, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-11-20

Kremlin Calls Talk of US Giving Ukraine Nuclear Weapons 'Absolutely Irresponsible', Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2024-11-26

Hearing of High Representative/Vice President-designate Kaja Kallas, News, European Parliament, 2024-11-12

ESCALATION - Scott Ritter, Ray McGovern & Ted Postol [Ka2gVAdvWUE], Consortium News, 2024-11-24

Alastair Crooke ： Deep State vs Trump. [A_0KHWZyPao], Napolitano interviews Crooke, Judging Freedom, 2024-11-25

Dmitry Orlov： Israel Sinking Deeper Than Ever - Ukraine Facing Total Defeat [1THj_1SDDMQ], Alkhorshid interviews Orlov, Dialogue Works, 2024-11-14

U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-12-06

I am doubtful that Postol got this right: [makes 3 points, and adds a bit more to conclude]

I thus recommend, if only out of abundance of caution, to assume that the Russian claims of bunker busting capabilities of Oreshnik missiles are very real.

Prof. Ted Postol on Russia's New Hypersonic Missile and Capabilities to Destroy Targets in Ukraine, Dialogue Works, Dialogue Works, 2024-12-04

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