The Rout of [the AFU in] Avdiivka
The Rout of [the AFU in] Avdiivka
The Empire of Chaos marches on.
Published: 2024-02-23
Update 2024-02-25: Added an ‘Update’ section on an article by b. from MoA.
Update 2024-03-02: Added a note of casualty stats for Russia [7 000] given a week later by Macgregor.
Update 2024-03-15: Added Christoforou’s video from 2024-03-13 wherein 3 French military assessments are reviewed and the last confirms the title of this article.
Introduction
The independent media which has been following the proxy war between the USA/NATO and Russia in Ukraine this past year has been supplied with opinion that it wont be long before Ukraine will suffer a crushing defeat for a collection of reasons. Many of these stemmed from the contents of the Intel Leaks obtained almost a year ago, not least the confirmation of the 6:1 to 8:1 ratio of fatalities suffered by the AFU [Armed Forces of Ukraine] to Russia's or that Ukraine's air defenses were woefully thin in systems (e.g Patriot batteries) and munitions (their missiles).
Scott Ritter, among others, had been predicting defeat in a season or two. Ukraine's much vaunted, and pre-declared, "Spring, Summer, Winter, ..." offensive came and fizzled out with not so much as a whimper. The US and its NATO "partners" kept delivering arms and funds to the most corrupt government in Europe to the glee of their "defence" industries and parliamentarians alike.
Yet, still the dwindling AFU forces fought on, or have.
The Rout at Avdiivka
The result of the recent palace intrigue in Kiev, or Kyiv for the West's newly minted Ukrainian Nationalist supporters, was not that SBU leader Budanov was given the reigns of the AFU, but "Butcher of Bakmut" Syrskyi. Bubu's first military achievement was the loss of Ukraine's most heavily fortified position in Donetsk, Avdiivka, which the AFU had been using for almost 10 years to shell civilians in Dontesk.
That loss of the bulwark of their defensive lines will have an incalculable impact on morale for both sides of the conflict. It arrived as the third element in a sequence to frame the upcoming second anniversary of the SMO, which falls close to the 10th anniversary of the US engineered coup in Kiev. That sequence is the massive penetration of the MSM's wall of silence on the Russian Federation's "Hitler" Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin by Tucker Carlson's interview, the mysterious death of poison resistant, political alsorand, criminal and western trained asset Navalni, and now the rout of the AFU in Avdiivka.
M. K. Bhadrakumar's geopolitical analysis of the fallout from Avdiivka examines the horribly precarious situation in which Ukraine's government will soon find itself. Who is matching the USA's largess to continue to fund the Ukraine government? M.K.B exposes a NATO/EU political schism in his financial analysis:
The US has so far committed €71.4 billion, more than half of it in the form of military aid. Number two is Germany with €21 billion, followed by the UK with €13.3 billion. Norway comes fourth. The paradox is, while the three largest European donors are all NATO members, it is only Germany who is a member of the European Union.
The missing piece in the puzzle is a nation with an energy economy far less affected by the loss of affordable and reliable, until the US litteraly below up the supply of Russian energy, France. Its ex-market banker president Macron is advocating a position not too dissimilar to that being hailed on the campaign trail by almost certain Republican nominee Donald Trump. That certainty will be be fixed if he wins the South Carolina primaries on February 24th, a situation which no sane bookmaker would take bets against.
This french position of an independent European defence force, coupled with a potential Trump US presidency, may well be the exact type of political storm which could produce the heavy weather to undermine NATO, an outcome of the failed proxy war in Europe long forseen by many an analyst. The interoperability which fuels NATO's military production houses in its expansion is a double edged sword. It also enables a section of NATO to separate and still maintain itself as a functional military whole.
Active Attrition
The reason why the visibility of the collapse of the AFU has been so slow hoving into view seems to lie primarily at the heart of the Russian military leadership's strategy, as dictated by economic, political and logistical realities.
The recent discussion, primarily between Martyanov and Ritter, with Danny Haiphong dives into various recent military tactical realities. Acknowledged are that the early artillery based conflict was well handled by the AFU, partially due to the use of drones, despite the Russian advantage in guns and ammunition. This settled in after the initial Russian dash to force a political settlement which could have been achieved were it not for British Boris Johnson undermining the detailed agreement 5 weeks into the war.
Russia needed to respond to the economic assault by the EU and the USA, and align its economy to support the war effort which, following the Ukrainian abandonment of the March/April 2022 agreement, was most likely going to be a long campaign. With support from nations outside of the US/EU/NATO/G7 block Russia not only survived the economic warfare but also managed to realign its economy. The success of this transformation was a shock even to them, and given their uncertainty, their strategy to minimize causualties was a political necessity.
National unity for a nation under obvious threat is one thing. Profligate use of soldiers, a well known part of Russia's past, is quite another. Modern Russia, irrespective of illusions to the contrary, has no desire to repeat this butchery.
A suffering was created. It was dealt to the people of the Donbas, who continued to be bombed in their market places, hospitals and schools by the Ukrainian ethno-supremacists which the USA had allowed into Ukraine's military and political oligarchy after the 2014 coup. As progress was made on the outskirts of Donetsk City pushing the AFU back, the hold out, the constant source of this civilian targeted shelling, was fortified Avdiivka.
Ritter and Martyanov related the shocking statistics of the rout. In a two day period, February 17th and 18th, around 2 400 AFU soldiers were killed. More than a 1 000 surrendered or were killed fleeing soon thereafter. The Russian forces tasked with the assault of this fortified position suffered plenty of casualties and 0 deaths. [Ed: 8 days after the publication of this article, Macgregor cited 7 000 Russian casualties [total, not ‘deaths’] for the weeks long assault on Avdiivka.]
In attempting to explain this extreme result, Ritter and Martyanov return to the core of the data revealed by the Intel Leaks. During the year since, Ukraine's air defenses have been almost eliminated, and those that remain are ineffective against newly adapted Russian weaponry. Followers of the conflict may recall 'glide bombs' being a hot topic a few months ago. These now are given an acronym with a number representing their mass in kilograms. The FAB-250 is a 500 lb. glide bomb which can be released by the Russian airforce beyond the range of any Ukrainian air defence. It has been replaced by the FAB-500, the FAB-1000 and the FAB-1500.
Disorganization
Shell shock is one thing. The continuous use of these munitions must make that feel like tinitus. This is what the 'crack' troops defending Avdiivka were living under. Ritter mentioned that regiments of these supposedly battle hardened battalions are now partially composed of fresh recruits transferred from the territorial defense units, poorly trained and inexperienced.
Russia has taken, mentions Ritter, two groups of 40 000 troops held in reserve to rotate into locations of increased focus on the lines of contact. The result of the rout of Avdiivka is that these troops will not need a rest. Russia is ready to select, and target whichever sectors they wish.
The message delivered is to expect much more of the same. Routine, calm, cumulative "small arrow" offensives placing continuous pressure across the broad front, a constant, slow, low casualty, demilitarizing grind. "Big arrow" offensives are not required, Ritter comments, relating a discussion with a Russian commander being sent to the general officer academy to integrate his battlefield experience into Russian doctrine. The AFU's lack of reserves, munitions, and collapsing morale will themselves do the work, without the casualitiies of "big arrow" offensives.
Zooming out, the infighting among the power players behind US politics and its deep state can only intensify. Trump's threat, a fracturing Europe, a genocidal Israel, a coordinated counter geopolitical and economic block in the BRICS10/SCO is quite enough to be dealt with, without a collapsing Ukraine.
Easy enough. Wash one's hands of it, leave the Europeans to the mess, and push on to China via Taiwan. That seems the next phase in this interminable insanity.
The Empire of Chaos marches on.
Update
b. from Moon Of Alabama reaches an identical conclusion from a simpler, direct analysis based on Russia’s military formations. The article has the traction of tank tracks on an autobahn.
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Sources
Germany swims or sinks with NATO, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 2024-02-17
Ukraine Can No Longer Win - It In Fact Never Had A Chance To Win, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-02-23
Ukrainian forces withdraw from key Donbass city — Syrsky, no author, RT, 2024-02-17
Ukrainian army fled Avdeevka in disarray – Russian MOD, no author, RT, 2024-02-18
Five facts [which Reuter's wanted you to know about] about Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's new army chief, no author, Reuters, [on] 2024-02-09
US Intelligence Leaks, YesXorNo, 2022-04-11
Putin, vampire ball is ending. France leaked docs; Ukraine can'\''t win. Biden, Orban dictatorship, Alex Christoforou, 2024-03-13
In which Christoforou describes the Marianne French publication of 3 military reports in which the French military agree that Avdiivka was a rout.
Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov on nato's russia-ukraine catastrophe, navalny's demise, plus more!, Haiphong interviews Ritter and Martyanov, Danny Hiaphong, 2024-02-20
Russian confidence grows with Avdeyevka capture w⧸ Patrick Lancaster, Mercouris and Christoforou interview Lancaster, The Duran, 2024-02-23
Patrick Lancaster: LIVE from Donetsk - Russia/Ukraine, Napolitano interviews Lancaster, Judging Freedom, 2024-02-20
Culture
Sting — Russians, from the 1985 “The Dream of the Blue Turtles” album, uploaded 2010-04-16
Copyleft: CC0
