Trump's 100 Days Looms
Witkoff's batting average is zero.
[Gratuitous use of some cool artwork from a video game.]
Published: 2025-04-16
Manufacturing
In "Return of the Robber Barons" Prof. of Economics Michael Hudson took the opportunity created by US President Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs" policy to re-issue his analysis of the sickness at the heart of the US economy.
Hudson's acronym of FIRE (Financialization, Insurance and Real Estate) represents the rentier section of the US economy. It produces nothing, but gather's wealth through rents. Then there are the manufacturing and (useful) services sectors. Manufacturing, including mining and agriculture produces trade goods which serve local or remote markets. Useful services include the retail and health sectors.
Export income from the manufacturing sector requires both infrastructure (factories, farming machinery etc.) and workers. The nostalgic period to which US President Trump refers, of US President McKinley at the turn of the 19th to 20th centuries, is dissimilar to the present in numerous ways. During it, the US government invested heavily in national infrastructure (sewage systems, roads etc.) and education. That government subsidy of the working population's health and quality of life improved the quality of its workforce for all sectors. The manufacturing sector benefited from it.
The initial Income Tax had little effect on the workforce for it taxed high rates of pay. In modern parlance it would be described as progressive.
Conditions for today's US workforce are very different. Government infrastructure (roads, rail etc.) has declined to the point of decrepit in some areas. The path of US industrial and tax policy since the 1980s has been away from subsidizing a manufacturing workforce and towards producing a service industry workforce. At the same time, changes in banking regulation have encouraged the FIRE (rentier) sections of the economy.
A conflict between the rentier and export manufacturing sections of the economy has been constructed by government policy. The manufacturers moved manufacturing offshore. Craig Murray documented a good case study, that of clothing. US clothing brands all moved to southeast Asia. Factories there imported US or other cotton, according to price, and produced clothing to be imported to the US. The companies were still listed on the US stock markets, allowing trade in stocks. Tax minimization strategies were employed. These are, of course, demanded by stock owners of the CEOs. The result is the trade imbalance which Trump claims offends him.
For manufacturing to return to the US, the US will need to subsidize its workforce to the benefit of the manufacturers more than the nations with which it is competing. Without this advantage manufacturers have nothing to gain, and plenty to lose, relocating their production. Because there are no signs of the vision or policies required to construct this advantage, manufacturing will largely remain where it is. The rentier component of the US economy will continue to grow. It will, as it has for decades, continue to expand the wealth gap and fracture US society. The lack of connection between US government policies and its population, as documented by Gilens and Page, will become even more marked (if that's even possible).
There is one major manufacturing sector which remains profitable, but only through government subsidy, the Military Industrial Complex.
China
In response Trump's "VAT" (tariffs), powerful responses have been seen from different actors. The exemption of high tech manufacturing (computers, screens etc.) from the high tariffs on China is to the benefit of US tech companies like Apple. Amazon must also have been among those protesting, for a large section of their products would have sky rocketed in price.
The "protests" which killed the near global, falsely calculated, high tariffs came from the finance sector and US Treasury as a consequence of international responses. Those included Japan and/or China selling US treasuries (bonds). This drove the interest rate at which the US Treasury was being forced to sell the bonds upward. This in turn increases the future debt which the tariff policies where intended to curb. Japan holds approximately $1 trillion, and China $0.9 trillion of the $37 trillion dollars of debt sold as bonds by the US Treasury to fund the US government. Restructuring international trade is a complex activity. Erecting a global tariff regime has been demonstrated as a failed approach.
The US government maintains the 145% tariffs on non-tech Chinese imports for now. Challenges exist in US courts as to whether the 'emergency' invoked by the Trump administration exists to justify the executive branch implementing legislative branch prerogatives (taxes). The tariffs against China may yet fall to US legal challenge.
China's response to the escalated economic threat from the US has been nuanced. It sees the situation as an opportunity. President Xi is currently touring Vietnam and Malaysia, using the tariff threat to bolster economic ties. This follows a declaration of economic solidarity between China, South Korea and Japan. The percentage of China's foreign trade with the US is small (5%). It can easily be redirected, which would seem the purpose of Xi's tour. China is the largest trading partner with all of these Asian nations. Preservation of good relations, both political and economic, between them is to all of their advantage.
The US tariff policy against China is, essentially, isolating the US.
Iran
The state of play between the US (on behalf of Israel) and Iran to re-address Iran's non-existent nuclear weapons policy while ignoring Israel’s was best summarized by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was Zen in his equivocation:
The negotiations may or may not yield results. We are neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic about them.
[Anitwar]
The discussions were indirect, as stipulated by Iran, and occurred in Oman, as stipulated by Iran. US crony Witkoff was obviously respectful with his language because Iran described the talks positively. The positive US response confirms that Iran, like Russia, has always been ready to engage in respectful diplomacy, given the same by its interlocutors.
It is the opinion of this author that whatever bluster by the US regime, its military will refuse to begin a war with Iran on Israel's behalf. The reason is simply that Iran has, to borrow a phrase, "escalation dominance" in its backyard.
The same is true of Russia and China. The threat of a serious and sustained response by any peer or near-peer nation which the US chooses to war with has been exacerbated by the reduction in US weapons stocks from its lost war with Russia in Ukraine.
In related news in southwest Asia, the US has issued pontificating threats about a ground war in Yemen. The Yemeni's must be laughing. The US plan is a search for a proxy army to wield against Yemen, just as they did against Syria. That process, Operation Timbre Sycamore, was the most expensive known CIA operation of all time.
For Syria, the US has notified its genocidal Israeli partner that it will be reducing its military presence, thus handing over control of various areas in the north to its Kurdish proxy. Israel sees the threat of increased Turkish military control in central Syria where it has been bombing military installations to deny their utility to Turkey.
It seems fair to describe Syria as the new Libya. Instead of there being two externally supported national groups destroying the country, there are two external occupiers, Israel and Turkey annexing territory, and two externally supported internal factions, the US/NATO approved jihadist government in Damascus and the Kurds. The motivation behind the claimed US withdrawal is likely the recently US facilitated power sharing agreement between the jihadists and the Kurds.
Russia/Ukraine
Bernard from Moon of Alabama provided an accurate summary of the current state of the lost war.
While in middle to late 2024 Ukraine was losing 2,500 troops a day, the numbers of 1,200 during the winter have recently risen to 1,500. This indicates the increased level of activity across the fronts which Russia dominates with men, armaments and logistics.
The ground is still sodden. More intensive combat is likely when it dries. Missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's military production (especially drone factories) have recently increased.
Russia is building its reserves in the rear to employ when weaknesses are exposed in NATO supported Ukraine's defenses during the coming fighting season.
Russia is still receiving 30,000 volunteers a month, far in excess of its losses. The opposite is true for Ukraine. Russian soldiers enter the conflict with 6 months of training, well armed and well led. They are rotated out to rest and recover regularly. Recent reports of the extremely low rate of sign up by the Ukrainian 18-24 age group also demonstrated that they received less than 3 months training. Separately, a member of the Azov (neo-Nazi) brigade recently criticized Ukrainian overall Commander Syrskyi for forcing troops to rest in positions still only tens of metres from the front.
This internal criticism within the ranks of Ukraine's military is not only indicative of both poor doctrine and poor treatment of forces, but also declining morale.
Nothing has changed in Russia's strategy. This is a war of attrition which it is demonstrably winning.
India and the UN Security Council
Prof. Sachs issued a reasonable proposal for a minor change to the U.N. Security Council, the addition of India to the P5 (permanent members of the council which possess a veto). His motivation for the timing of the publication of this suggestion is unclear.
It probably represents the least unlikely change which could be made. It may be that Sachs is elevating a proposal which begins a process of change for the dysfunctional and powerful U.N. mechanism which has for so long failed to achieve its mandate of promoting and maintaining peace.
As has been noted during U.N.'s crisis of validity generated by Israel's genocide and the West's support of it, the General Assembly can itself, in exceptional circumstances, mandate change in the structure of the U.N. Given the current unstable changes in geopolitics Sachs may be advocating a beginning of a restructuring process at the institution. Its principles are repeatedly affirmed by the growing collection of nations in BRICS+. They may be coordinated to achieve changes which could salvage the reputation of the international institution. This may be Sachs' motivation.
US
Trump's "first 100 days" is approaching. Most of his diplomatic efforts have been spearheaded by his real estate collegue and crony Witkoff. Ambassador Freeman provided a baseball analogy for Witkoff’s achievements: a batting average of zero.
The Gaza ceasefire held only so long as Genocider-in-Chief Netanyahu allowed it. The response has been Yemen restarting their economic blockade to which Trump's fracturing cabinet responded by spending a billion dollars and having more MQ-9 drones shot down. Russia is focusing on re-establishing diplomatic contacts with the US, rather than waste their time on settling the Ukraine conflict, for two reasons.
Firstly, the US has failed to acknowledge the clear messaging which Russia has sent: the causes of the war need to be addressed. Secondly, the EuroVassals, with assistance from rogue player Kellogg, are supporting Ukraine in undermining any proposal.
Iran is listening to Witkoff, but Khamenei has zero confidence that anything will be achieved. The genocide in Gaza and the annexations of southern Lebanon and Syria by Israel continue. Zero seems generous.
It may be that the EuroVassal intransigence is based on a "wait it out" strategy, aligning themselves with the US military intelligence and deepstate apparatus. Suffice to say, the US president is inconsistent in his policies and has only limited support from within the Zionist affirming cabinet he assembled.
The chaos which the US likes creating on the periphery of its empire is coming home to roost.
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Sources
Return of the Robber Barons; Michael Hudson; The Unz Review; 2025-04-14
Trump, Tariffs & Trade; Craig Murray; Consortium News; 2025-04-15
New Syrsky Interview Sheds Light on Upcoming Russian Operations + Recruitment Figures; Simplicius; Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge; 2025-04-11
Iran's Khamenei Says Talks With US Went 'Well' But May Lead Nowhere; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-04-15
Ukraine Confirms Sumy Strike Target - Russian Build Up For Summer Campaign; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-04-15
Giving Birth to the New International Order; Jeffrey D. Sachs; Scheerpost; 2025-04-15
Russia Ain't a Chinese Sidecar; Larry C. Johnson; SONAR21; 2025-04-16
AMB. Charles Freeman : Diplomacy Failing.; Napolitano interviews Freeman; Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom; 2025-04-15
Pepe Escobar : Russia/China/Iran Warn US.; Napolitano interviews Escobar; Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom; 2025-04-15
CIA Running Killing Fields.; Judge Napolitano interviews Prof. Jeffrey Sachs; Judging Freedom; 2025-04-15
Trump, Iran & Yemen: Is America First Still the Plan?; Alkhorshid interviews Col. Larry Wilkerson; Dialogue Works; 2025-04-15
Who Controls Syria?; Judge Napolitano interviews Kevork Almassian; Judging Freedom; 2025-04-14
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