Ukraine: A Russian Strategy Based on Tested Tactics
A Russian Strategy Based on Tested Tactics
[Image: Mr. Fish]
Publication date: 2022-03-07
Update 2022-03-08: results of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are “humanitarian corridors” which supports this article’s thesis (and is good for poor civilians trapped in a conflict). Also, a new source under “More Sources”, a CN Live published video with Ray McGovern and John Mearsheimer and others.
Update 2022-03-09: More sources, and a Culture section. I recommend the Scott Ritter interview by Lee Camp.
Instead of making wild speculations on "Putin's Motives" and Russia's choice of strategy in Ukraine, how about we combine some recent history and current actions to inform an explanation?
The analysis presented is a restatement of that first echoed by Scott Ritter and expanded upon by Alexander Mercouris with some additional background. The video in which the non-military trained analyst Mercouris presents his case on The Duran is, of course, in the Sources below. For a varied perspective, a recent ConsortiumNews videocast "CN Live" is also included with two analysts with a military background, the aforementioned Scott Ritter and Mark Sleboda.
Introduction
The "western" media narrative regarding the current conflict in Ukraine is beginning to mature, slightly, from its unhinged alarmist and emotional rhetoric.
One of the first signs of western media jumping on stories to elevate emotional responses to the conflict was of the border guards on "Snake Island". From Army Times we had:
The 13 Ukrainian border guards stationed on a rocky Black Sea landmass known as Snake Island might have known they were doomed when the Russian warship called for their surrender Thursday during the first full day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“This is a Russian warship,” the invaders radioed to the guards. “I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you’ll be bombed.”
“Russian warship, go fuck yourself,” the Ukrainians responded.
“On our Snake Island, defending it to the last, all the border guards died heroically,” Zelenskyy said. “But they did not give in. All of them will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously. Eternal memory to those who gave their lives for Ukraine.”
It turned out that yes, the border post was approached by the Russian military who recommended they lay down their arms. The quote ending "otherwise you'll be bombed" is not attributed, and in the end the Ukranian border guards did lay down their arms, were taken captive and given food etc. and treated honorably as enemy combatants.
Stories about both the Chernobyl (decommissioned) and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plants begin with alarmist claims of Russia's military attacking the facilities and risking the spread of nuclear material. Because of the level of hysteria being run in western media due to articles like that of Snake Island it is difficult for people to consider the possibility that Russia is seizing these facilities to prevent Ukrainian extremists from creating that exact problem.
The independent media has been detailing the influence of groups with Nazi (or Banderite Fascist) ideologies on the Ukraine regime post the 2014 coup. Fox News Business even allowed a military officer to express his opinion. This 3 minute 49 second video helps set a context for this article.
The Case of Georgia in 2008
To introduce and expand upon the analysis first mentioned by Ritter and then extended by Mercouris, we need history. Here that analysis is recast from the observation that some of the military tactics being used by the Russia forces in Ukraine are an echo of those used in Syria to the wider recognition that Russia is using methods that are honed, and tested as effective: experience and history.
In Georgia in 2008, then President Saakashvili, feeling emboldened by a potential NATO membership and with implicit support from the CIA, instigates violence against Russian ethnic/linguistic peoples in areas of Georgia. Russia responds by handing the Georgians a crushing military defeat. She then goes about creating the "independent" regions of Chechnya and Abkhazia. You may see different versions of interpretation of what actually happened and who shot the first bullet, but this is not important. What matters is the result; the carving off of ethno-Russian dominated enclaves from the nation which was in conflict with them. This is the tactic being repeated. Recall that when Putin called the Russian Security Council for comment (its actually a leading policy body, rather than just a security council) the argument was not about if Donetsk and Lugansk should be recognized as independent, but when. The dominant opinion was years ago.
Following the USA supported and Nazi/Banderite paramilitary assisted coup in Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian military begins to attack enclaves of Russia nationals/ethnic peoples in Donetsk and Lugansk. For 8 years of the Minsk Agreement process, despite being unanimously approved by the UN Security Council, the most fundamental component remained stillborn, assigning degrees of autonomy to the two regions via constitutional amendment. During the entire period, the Ukraine and associated paramilitaries continued to shell its own citizens in the regions, with counter-fire by those attacked. UN figures put the deaths between 2018 and 2020 at 81.4% in the defending territories. In response to the failed diplomatic process, continued attacks against Russia's own citizens and other military factors, Russia declares those two regions independent (from her perspective).
From Georgia to Ukraine; similar problem, same solution.
The Case of Syria from 2015
To this day persons who only consume USA corporate media will have little understanding of what was the cause of or even what actually happened during the proxy war in Syria. To prove the point, one of the USA's leading investigative journalists, Seymour Hersh, was forced to publish his long, detailed piece (5776 words) providing his background and introduction to the Syria conflict in the London Review of Books. Hersh could find no publisher in the USA which would take the piece due to either its length, implications or both. (Hats off to the then editor of the LRB). This is a brilliant piece of investigative journalism which rewards for every minute spent reading it.
To get a sense of the skullduggery involved in this proxy war, look up the term "Operation Timber Sycamore", the CIA operation to fund, arm and train the insurgent fighters. Read perhaps four varied sources talking about it, and you'll get the idea. Just the financial outlay is staggering.
The USA/CIA did not act alone in this. A conspiracy of nations and wealthy persons within them colluded in the creation of this armed conflict, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Israel, amongst others. To paraphrase Pope Francis, the profiteers were the blood-soaked arms manufacturers.
Why are deadly weapons being sold to those who plan to inflict untold suffering on individuals and society? Sadly, the answer, as we all know, is simply for money: money that is drenched in blood, often innocent blood.
If you really want to dig deep into the skullduggery, see the USA's undermining of the legitimacy of the UN's Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) by rigging its report on the alleged chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus in Douma in 2018. Aaron Maté's dogged efforts to document this subversion have been of the highest class.
For exploring the media/psy-op angle of the conflict as delivered by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) which funded and coordinated the White Helmets, examine works by Vanessa Beeley and Eva Bartlett (independent journalists), and the publications of the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media. Interviews with Vanessa and Eva are provided in Sources, below. The Grayzone has also done excellent work unearthing the trail of money from the FCO to their media arms operating in Syria during the proxy war. This ties all the way back to other efforts by MI-6 including the "Integrity Initiative".
Syria's invitation to Russia to assist them resist the foreign funded, trained and armed religous extremist terrorist insurgency was a gift to Russia which goes largely unrecognized in western media. Simply, one could look at the extended lease on the Russian naval base in Tartus, or the provision of the air field at Khmeimim with a now extended runway allowing Russia to fly long range (2000 Km) "bombers" (equipped with hypersonic missiles for which AEGIS 'protected' NATO ships have no defence) anywhere in the eastern Mediterranean. In the view of this author, the real value was Russia's ability to test its forces and armaments. Its retrained military got to operate in a wider field of combat against a changing, conglomerate of forces. ISIS, Al Nusra, Al Qaeda, KPG, YPG etc. with diverse funding, arms and forces flowing in from Turkey in the north or through Al Tanf via Jordan in the south, and supplied arms moving between different insurgent groups.
Surveillance and intelligence capabilities got a work out, as did new aircraft and the not-top-of-the-line S-400 missile defence systems, amongst others. Not least, their diplomatic service and negotiators also got quite a challenge.
Russia adapted an old tactic to a new environment; the "cauldron".
If one possess the superior military force one can surround an enemy and force them to surrender or attempt to break the encirclement as they will be denied resupply of water/food/ammunition/intelligence etc. and thus become an ineffective force. The "cauldron" variant seems a slower pressure building method; slowly adding more fuel to the fire under the "cauldron" to raise the temperature therein.
The case in point seems to be the removal/defeat of the terrorist/insurgent forces' hold on eastern Aleppo in Syria. It took about a year, with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on the ground, and Russian forces providing air cover. The question is how did they get the insurgent forces to choose between the two options of "surrender"?
put down your weapons and join the SAA
put down your weapons and be bused to Idlib
The unspoken option is "keep fighting and you die".
The exact answer to the "how" is unclear to the author, but it seemed to involve a few identifiable elements: humanitarian relief corridors and lots and lots of negotiation. There are certainly many other aspects involving infiltration, propaganda, precise targeted military operations etc.. In the end, they were successful, and as above with the Georgian intervention, that is all that matters.
The process was repeated, no doubt with variation, again and again throughout Syria to push the "rebel" forces to what they now retain: the jihadist "stronghold" of Idlib on supporter Turkey's border, the Kurdish/USA controlled areas in the northeast, the Al Tanf USA base in the southeast and the newly controlled areas of the Golan Heights taken by Israel. But, the largest and contiguous area of Syria is under the control of its government with the backing of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
Techniques for a new version of "the cauldron" were honed in Syria. Though there the techniques were developed against religious extremists.
Evidence for re-use is on display in the current Ukraine conflict. Cities are not invaded, they are surrounded. Negotiations are held with the local political leadership (mayors etc.). A prime example is Kherson. A partial example is Kharkiv where the Ukrainian nationalist forces are/were stronger. Control of the city seems unresolved. The most difficult example is Mariupol, the 'headquarters' for the Nazi/Banderite Azov Battalion/Brigade. Where things are not too difficult, as in Kherson, a peace is fairly quickly achieved and Russian supplied humanitarian aid is being distributed while fighting appears very rare. Mariupol is likely to be a very different story due to the choices of the armed "defenders".
In Ukraine the extremists are ideological/rascist as opposed to religious.
Similar problem, same solution.
Objectives and Methods
The declared objectives for the Russian Federation's "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine are:
demilitarization of Ukraine
denazification (if that's a word) of Ukraine
Ukraine becomes a neutral country, like Finland or Austria
The demilitarization of Ukraine is well under way. The Ukrainian air force is no more. We know this because of the reports of a column of Russian forces tens of kilometres long sitting in one place for days. Early in the SMO significant damage was done not only to Ukrainian air defence and air forces, but also to command infrastructure and communications. It is noteworthy that Ukrainian cellular networks remain operational. This is very good for the civilian population but one must deduce that all networks are under constant deep surveillance, else the military would be using it. And, if they are, it informs the SMO where they are.
Russia has stated repeatedly that SMO forces are not targetting civilian infrastructure, and this seems very much the case. To understand why is not difficult. Firstly, they need to demonstrate to the civilian population that they are only targetting military assets and forces, and secondly to obtain their final objective they need an effective reconstituted civil service to be able to enact the neutrality they desire, and for that civil service and new political leadership to have legitimacy within the Ukrainian population. This would be extremely difficult if the nation was in complete disarray with lack of water, communications and other core services or grieving about legitimate war crimes committed by Russian forces.
Denazification is likely to be the most complex objective. There will be desires from within the civilian population for revenge, and equally so within Russia's population for there live relatives of the murdered. A case in point is the burning of the Trade Union building in Odessa in 2014. Saakashvili, the former President of Georgia, not having learned his lesson and having renounced his Georgian citizenship, was installed by the post-coup regime in Kiev as the Govenor of Odessa. Under his watch people protesting the new post-coup regime retreated to take refuge in the Trade Union building and were burned alive or shot at if they attempting to flee. One can label this as a war crime or just plain premeditated mass murder. It has never been taken to trial by Ukraine's public prosecutors. (Everyone knows that USA political leaders never interfere in other nation's judicial systems.)
These and other crimes are likely to be investigated post conflict for at least two purposes. A sense of justice will be delivered to the families of the victims. It serves Russia's PR interests.
The methods we are seeing employed by Russia's diplomatic and military are not in isolation, but unified. Russia's well trained military leadership are not accepting the dictates of some mad autocratic. The actions are well planned, and considered.
They are based on experience and history.
Updates
The results of the 3rd round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus have resulted in the same as previous “humanitarian corridors”. Previous agreements on these corridors have resulted in very little progress on civilians leaving encircled towns or cities. I leave it to the intelligence of the readership to see who is most likely to be undermining these corridors.
Russia’s continued push for these corridors reinforces the thesis of this article.
Sources
How Ukraine’s Jewish president Zelensky made peace with neo-Nazi paramilitaries on front lines of war with Russia, Alexander Rubinstein and Max Blumenthal, The Grayzone, 2022-03-04
Zelensky And The Fascists: "He will hang on some tree on Khreshchatyk", b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-02-05
Ukraine And The New Al Qaeda, Whitney Webb, Unlimited Hangout (originally published at The Last American Vagabond), 2022-03-02
By using Ukraine to fight Russia, the US provoked Putin's war, Aaron Maté, his newsletter, 2022-03-05
Eva Bartlett Exposes the Lies on Syria, Eva Bartlett interviewed by James Corbett, Corbett Report, 2017-11-07
Vanessa Beeley Exposes the White Helmets, Vanessa Beeley interviewed by James Corbett, Corbett Report, 2018-02-08
Col Macgregor "I think Zelenskyy is a puppet", Col. McGregor, Fox Business, 2022-03-04
[linked above, in situ, in the article]
Russia's strategy in Ukraine follows Syria model (Live), Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2022-02-05
(Backup location at Rumble: https://rumble.com/vwilel-russias-strategy-in-ukraine-follows-syria-model-live.html)
WATCH: CN Live! — ‘Ukraine Update’, Mark Sleboda and Scott Ritter on CN Live, Consortium News, 2022-03-04
More Sources
Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Salon | Ray McGovern, John Mearsheimer, John Mearsheimer, Ray McGovern, (former USA Ambassador) Jack Matlock, and Professor Ted Postol, CN Live (Consortium News), 2022-03-06
Closing the Donbass cauldron & closing Nord Stream 1, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2022-03-08
(In which the closing of the ‘cauldron’ around Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine is discussed)
The map which is discussed early on was published by Russian state media “First Channel” and we republished by The Saker. It is included below for ease of reference:
Former UN Inspector Scott Ritter on What The Hell Is Happening, Scott Ritter interviewed by Lee Camp (on his last remaining youtube show), Moment of Clarity with Lee Camp, 2022-03-07
Culture
Tom Lehrer - The Elements - LIVE FILM From Copenhagen in 1967, Tom Lehrer, The Tom Lehrer Wisdom Channel, uploaded 2012-04-03
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