Ukraine: Diplomatic Dances in Istanbul

Expected outcome achieved: Nothing

[A reuse of the title image from “US Intelligence Leaks” of 2023-04-12.]

Published: 2025-05-17

Updated 2025-05-18: References to articles by Patrick Lawrence, Larry Johnson and MoA were added.

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Istanbul

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia held in Istanbul yesterday (2025-05-16) were delayed from the previous day. They concluded after two hours with an agreement for an exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war. No statements were made on progress to settle the war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine.

Russia was "satisfied" with the discussions, said Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky. He described Russia's understanding of the future of negotiations between the two nations:

We agreed that each side will present its vision for the possible future ceasefire and write it out in detail

[Antiwar]

The Russian delegation reportedly told the Ukrainians that Ukrainian troops must vacate the four oblasts that are now part of the Russian Federation — i.e., Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — before there can be any discussion of a possible ceasefire.

[Larry Johnson]

Which is to say, nothing has changed in Russia’s calculus.

US President Trump wants a photo-op with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. His comments on the talks were as unclear as usual:

“I think it’s time for us to just do it,” he told reporters, later adding, “[Putin] and I will meet, and I think we’ll solve it or maybe not. At least we’ll know. And if we don’t solve it, it’ll be very interesting.”

[Antiwar]

The diplomatic game was preceded by the leaders for France, Germany and Britain issuing ultimatums to Russia for the war Russia is winning. They demanded a 30 day unconditional ceasefire which would allow Ukraine to resupply or they would apply more ineffective sanctions. They followed this diplomatic fantasy with a train trip to Kiev on which they were videoed with a bag of cocaine and a spoon for snorting it.

Putin responded to the ultimatums by re-stating Russia's consistent position that it is always ready to discuss resolution of the war with serious parties. The response was the suggestion for the talks in Istanbul, issued at 2 am Moscow time a week ago. John Helmer reported that the proposal by Russia was made with the support of Trump, which was supported by Trump's demand on Truth Social that Zelensky attend.

Novorossiya

Lt. Col Alex Vershinin, of Britain's military think tank RUSI, has published three articles which Bernard from Moon Of Alabama has used in his reporting on the war in Ukraine. In the latest, Vershinin provided analysis and estimates of losses which correspond to those which have been issued by informed military commentators in independent media since the US Intelligence Leaks of April, 2023.

Vershinin's estimate of the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed or unable to return to the battle was 1.5 million. He acknowledged that this is almost certainly an under-count. The most reliable estimates of Russia's losses come from MediaZona falling in the range of 120,000 to 250,000. This places the Ukrainian to Russian losses still in the realm of the 8:1 which was cited in the US Intelligence Leaks of 2023.

Other factors in favour of the Armed Forces of the Russia Federation cited by independent experts have been confirmed and were reinforced by Vershinin: Russia is outproducing NATO in armaments and its forces are better trained. Russia has expanded its military during the campaign. It is not even advertising for volunteers at the moment, reported Gilbert Doctorow, while it is still fielding between 30,000 and 50,000 new soldiers each month.

The political leadership of Ukraine is caught between the inexorable advance of Russia on the battlefield and lack of armament supply from its NATO backers. Trump is caught between his campaign promise to end the conflict and the intransigence of Ukraine's political leadership, even given the disaster of the war. The Ukrainian oligarchy behind the political leadership have been profiteering from the war by selling weapons on the black market and extorting its own population to avoid being conscripted to die in the war.

Russia is under no pressure to concede any of its demands while its military continues to atrit the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the realm of a ratio of 8:1 while its economy is stabilized outside of the US dollar global financial system. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being demographically and financially destroyed and losing its territory.

Update 2025-05-20

Ukraine has yet to even acknowledge that Crimea is lost. Talks in Istanbul ended after two hours with Russia informing Ukraine that they’re happy to discuss end of war conditions after Ukraine withdraws all forces from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhe and Kherson.

After the Istanbul meeting, Putin and Trump spoke for two hours. Putin re-stated Russia’s offer for discussing end of war terms. Given that Ukraine wont accept any of them, this is moot.

Trump advertised Ukraine’s refusal to accept its lot as progress. It is certainly better that the two sides are speaking than not, but expecting anything before Russia executes its summer offensives would be asking to be disappointed.

After Call With Putin, Trump Says Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Will Begin 'Immediately'; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-05-19

After months of U.S.-led 'negotiations', Ukraine and Russia are no closer to peace w/ John Helmer; Dimitri Lascaris interviews John Helmer; Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris; 2025-05-17

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Sources

PATRICK LAWRENCE: Diplomatic Chess, Ukraine the Pawn; Patrick Lawrence; Consortium News; 2025-05-16

Russia Promises to Double Down if Ukraine Does Not Take the Offer on the Table; Larry Johnson/SONAR21; Archive.today; 2025-05-17

MoA - Ukraine - Negotiation Failure Plus Other Items; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-05-16

Russia and Ukraine Agree to Prisoner Swap At Istanbul Talks; Will Porter; Antiwar; 2025-05-16

An Immediate Peace Is The Best One Ukraine Can Ever Get; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-05-12

US Intelligence Leaks; YesXorNo; 2023-04-11

Enemies or Frenemies? The U.S. Position on Russia, Iran & China; Alkhorshid interviews Ray McGovern and John Helmer; Dialogue Works; 2025-05-12

Can US and Hamas Talk Without Israel?; Judge Napolitano interviews Aaron Maté; Judging Freedom; 2025-05-15

• Judging Freedom's producer plays a 2016 speech by Lindsay Graham, translated into Ukrainian, which closely echoes that given by Zbigniew Brzezinski to the CIA and Saudi funded Mujahadeen to fight for the US versus USSR proxy war in Afghanistan, 1979 to 1989. Nothing has changed in 40 years.

EU Nonsense on Ukraine!; Judge Napolitano interviews Prof. Gilbert Doctorow; Judging Freedom; 2025-05-14

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