USA, Ukraine, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia: Out of the Frying Pan, into the Fire
Out of the Frying Pan, into the Fire
[Image: a collage by the author who reads Antiwar every day for their news and opinion articles.]
Publication date: 2022-11-10
Update 2022-11-11: A few sources have been added, another by Ted Snider, one by b at MoonOfAlabama another by Conor Echols at Responsible Statecraft and a video of Scott Ritter interviewing Ray McGovern.
A summary of this article and some extended hypothesizing is available as an audio production.
Developments in Ukraine
During Dima's (Military Summary channel) November 9th video he confirms a few items, provides some new information and makes a few interpretations, predictions even.
The confirmations are that US adviser Jake Sullivan has held discussions with senior Russian officials. A new piece of information was that thereafter he consulted with the President of Ukraine Zelensky. Other new information is that the Russian army have destroyed four bridges over the Ingolets river which divides the east and west of the northern part of the Kherson oblast on the "right bank" of the Dniper.
[Image: a frame from Dima’s video of Nov 9th (see Sources) with annotation.]
The Russian Federation's Ministry of Defence has declared, upon advice from the new commander of the "Special Military Operation", that Russia will withdraw its military forces from the right bank in Kherson which includes the capital, Kherson city.
While Russian officials are adept at omitting information to control a narrative, their statements are generally reliable. This author and Dima take seriously their statements on the withdrawal. Dima considers the consequences, if this is indeed their intention.
The major bridge over the Dniper at Kherson city is damaged. At least one pontoon bridge has been established there, and fleet of boats exist to ferry goods and persons. However, a military withdrawal from these now separated parts of northern Kherson oblast means moving tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery pieces and very large amounts of ammunition. Because there are only a few places at which the heaviest of these items can cross the Dniper the equipment will be concentrated in discrete locations. The limited locations and their reduced capacity causes the equipment or ammunition to be vulnerable to attack during the evacuation when crossing the Dniper. The better artillery provided by the USA and European nations (the HIMARS, M777's and french artillery) will enable Ukraine to pounce on this concentration.
Dima suggests that the recent negotiations between Sullivan representing the USA and Russia and then Ukraine involve more than "reducing tensions". He suggests that what was being negotiated was a pause, an opportunity for Russia to remove its forces and heavy equipment from these territories to the left bank, or the southern area of Kherson oblast. His analysis is more than plausible.
This is all speculation. We don't have the satellite imagery or the transcriptions of the discussions between these negotiators. If Dima's analysis is correct, this leads to a potentially good place. He continues his analysis by stating that he believes this is the first step towards stepping down and resolving this conflict.
USA Political Changes
There are other recent factors which support Dima's analysis which he does not mention. The first is that the results of the mid-term elections in the USA seem to be likely to give the Republican party a majority in the lower house. This will make problematic the continued whitewashing of funds through Ukraine. Biden may possess a veto but without a majority the Democrats cannot enact legislation to fund this proxy war without the support of the GOP. Elements within the GOP seem to be starting to sense an electoral victory in the next Presidential election based on the growing concern in the voting base on economic issues. The issuance and almost immediate retraction of the open letter by the Progressive Caucus shows that this sentiment, or concern, also exists in elements of the Democratic party.
Support for the war in Europe is also waning. Changes of government (Italy) or government leadership (UK) or government control of the legislature (France) have displayed this increasing concern with economics rather than the continuance of this war. To wheel out a tired idiom "the tide is turning".
Geopolitics
On the geopolitical level something far more threatening than feeding the military industrial complex via the Ukraine proxy war has emerged.
Chinese "President for life" Xi Jinping will soon be visiting Riyadh to speak with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud (MbS) according to The Duran (see Sources). The exact topics to be discussed are unknown. A few can be guessed.
[Image: a collage of images of the two leaders, Xi Jinping and Mohammed bin Salman, by the author.]
The continued trade in oil to be payed in Chinese currency is obvious. But, that does not require a visit by Xi Jinping. The more controversial topics are Saudi Arabia's entry into BRICS+ and potentially the SCO. These discussion would mandate such a high level visit. Behind this is a mortal threat to the USA, that Saudi Arabia will begin selling its oil with non-USA purchasers in a new international trade currency which BRICS and the SCO are working upon creating.
Whether these things happen is speculation. Saudi Arabia is burdened by multiple US military bases, including army, air force and navy. Osama bin Laden warned the Monarchy about this stupidity during the lead up to the 1991 USA/Iraq/Kuwait war. Thus, one should take the suggestions above with some skepticism. Nonetheless, China is wooing Saudi Arabia away from its alliance with the USA. One can be certain that Russia has a hand in this too.
During Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent speech and Q&A at the Valdai Discussion Club he made two statements which raised attention. The first regarded the creation of a new international trade currency, which he saw as difficult but possible. The second was his declaration that the next decade would be fraught though the most important since the end of WWII. This move by China to woo Saudi Arabia away from the USA combined with Saudi Arabia's already stated interest in joining BRICS (to create BRICS+) and the SCO reinforces his comments. It is unlikely that he did not already know of this upcoming approach by China to Saudi Arabia when he delivered the speech.
A use of non-USD based current for international trade, especially in energy markets would undermine the “Petro-dollar”. With a 30 Trillion USD international debt, any threat to the stability or value of the US Dollar is an existential threat to the USA maintaining its empire.
While recent USA foreign policy may be seen as immoral, it has been feeding its core industries. Thus, the choices are financially based and have ignored the human lives torn usunder by them, and the degradation of infrastructure in the USA. USA policy planners are not so myopic as to not recognising this imminent threat. Based upon this Alexander Mercouris predicts deliberate provocations within the Middle East to upset a modicum of balance and discussion which has recently emerged, and warns MbS to pay attention to his personal safety.
To wheel out another tired trope “there be troubling times ahead”.
Sources
Russia Announces It’s Pulling Out of Kherson City, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-11-09
Kremlin Has ‘Nothing to Say’ About Reported Talks With Jake Sullivan, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2022-11-08
Look Who’s Talking - Slivers of Hope in Ukraine, Ted Snider, Antiwar, 2022-11-09
Will a Russian Kherson exit create the right ‘facts on the ground’?, Ted Snider, Responsible Statecraft, 2022-11-10
The Pullout From Kherson, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-11-10
Diplomacy Watch: Could US-Russia nuke negotiations help set the stage for talks?, Conor Echols, Responsible Statecraft, 2022-11-11
Cost of Living in Europe and Further Aid to Ukraine, Gilbert Doctorow, his website, 2022-11-06
11/4/22 Douglas Macgregor on the Lost Opportunities to Leave Ukraine Better Off, Scott Horton interviews Douglas Macgregor, Scott Horton Show, 2022-11-04
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 09.11.2022, Dima, Military Summary channel, 2022-11-09
Russian Kherson Withdrawal: Trap? Or Necessary Chess Move?, Brian Berletic, The New Atlas, 2022-11-09
MBS & BRICS, the most dangerous pivot in history, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2022-11-08
Mid-Terms 2022 | Ukraine fears election impact | Surovikin's Kherson plan | Scott Ritter Show, Scott Ritter interviews Ray McGovern, Scott Ritter Show, 2022-11-09
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