Ukraine: Speculation, Shakedown, Narrative & Reality

Negotiating over and picking from the Ukrainian carcass

Published: 2025-03-06

Updated 2025-03-06: Another 6 sources added since publication, many linked into the text, including the rare earth data from USGS.

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The New York Mafia

If there is one thing we can thank US President Donald Trump for, it is this: he has decisively stripped away the ridiculous notion, long cultivated by western media, that the United States is a benign global policeman enforcing a "rules-based order".

[Jonothan Cook]

Indeed. Alexander Mercouris playfully named the new system the No-Rules Based International Disorder.

Washington is better understood as the head of a gangster empire, embracing 800 military bases around the world. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been aggressively seeking "global full-spectrum domination", as the Pentagon doctrine politely terms it.

You either pay fealty to the Don or you get dumped in the river. Last Friday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was presented with a pair of designer concrete boots at the White House.

The innovation was that it all happened in front of the western press corps, in the Oval Office, rather than in a back room, out of sight. It made for great television, Trump crowed.

[Cook]

Some are interested in the speculative topic of just how much of the Oval Office food fight was scripted. Alex Christoforou threw a fun scrap into this debate: given that the US and Russia are talking, both want peace, and Russia knows that Zelensky is the major block to it, perhaps Russia suggested to the US to use the "Minerals Deal" as a way for the US to expose the cocaine addict's intransigent insincerity.

Pimping the King

Ejected without any private instruction, or lunch, Zelensky fled to the loving embrace of Sir Starmer who had gathered a few European heads of state for a photo-op in London.

The "united" narrative was re-issued with a "coalition of the willing" thrown in while King Charles III further stained his reputation by hosting the illegitimate coke addict.

[The best the Royal photographer could capture.]

Transitional Reality

To reinforce the unity narrative, the British media began pumping another "a few weeks more and Russia will collapse" narrative, reported The Duran. It was based on the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) breaking back into a quadrant of the northern section of Toretsk, which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) had cleared a fortnight earlier. Those soldiers will retreat or remain there forever, as Dima from Military Summary phrases these media motivated, suicidal attacks by the AFU.

Alexander Mercouris saw the British narrative as preparatory. Starmer and the rest of the European leaders will soon break into the reality of holding the bag, alone, for a lost war. The next British media narrative is likely to be that the US blew the whole mission by withdrawing just before victory was in sight.

The horror is not only the Don withdrawing from Ukraine, but partially from Europe too, and forcing the EuroVassals to purchase US arms to cobble together some defense structure all while suffering 25% tariffs on exports to the US market. This will break the current cabal of European leaders who grew up in the Obama/Biden Democratic theatre and leave Europe in a bewildering reset while the Trump administration pursues grander policies.

Ukraine was and is a European problem. Yes, the US had been fostering the problem and caused the war, but the boot licking Europeans jumped all-in and now its all-theirs, proving Kissinger's adage of "being a US enemy is dangerous, but an ally fatal".

Picking the carcass

The Don is all about money. To "win" the war, all he needs to do is convince his electorate that he recouped some of the money wasted on it. John Helmer has deconstructed the $350 billion figure Trump has been repeating ad nauseam as wildly inflated using figures from the US Congress appointed Special Inspector General. The false figure will enable Team Trump to secure a fraction of it which comes close to that expended and then blame the rest on “Winkin', Blinkin' and Nod,” to quote Helmer's phrase for the last US administration.

That the Don was going to be financially motivated was not too hard to predict, and was supported by his appointment of another New York City gangster developer, Witkoff, as an envoy during transition. Russia sent a representative from their controled gansters oligarchy to pair up with Witkoff at the initial meeting in Riyadh. Money talks, and Putin's Russia is fluent in this dialect.

Ukraine was being plundered during the 8-year long civil war started as an "anti-terror" operation by the US installed Ukrainian government in 2014. Ukraine was spending money on arming the neo-Nazis who provided the muscle for the 'Toria Nuland managed coup, and integrating them into the AFU. Eight years later when Russia internationalized the conflict by augmenting Russian private military forces and covert support for the Donbas breakaway republics with the AFRF, the AFU was the largest NATO trained military outside of the US. That did not come cheaply. Additionally, laws passed in the US controlled Ukrainian Rada enabled international "investment" funds to buy up huge swaths of highly productive agricultural land in Ukraine. The latest round of parceling off mining leases and ports, by both Britain with its "100 year" partnership and the US with its "Minerals Deal", is a last ditched effort to pick at the carcass of Ukraine.

Fly fishing in Russia

The "Rare Earth Metals" (REMs) are one class of minerals of which the US military and tech sectors are desperately in need. The greater set are designated as "critical minerals" in US Think Tank policy papers, like those from Project 2025 as mentioned in an earlier article. It was Helmer, again, who dug up the US Geological Survey's assessment of production and reserves for the REMs, which shows that Ukraine has next to none.

[Helmer / USGS]

Maps have shown that the small amount REMs Ukraine has are dominantly located east of the Dniper river, under territory added into Russia's constitution and controlled by its military.

On Alkorshid's Dialogue Works, Pepe Escobar noted the "win-win", Xi Jinping move by Vladimir Putin to offer the US mining sector an opportunity to invest in developing Russia's far larger, critical mineral deposits. This Russian lure was very well cast.

Helmer joined two Indian senior military officers to discuss a framework for the resolution of the Ukraine war. They concluded, as have others, that there are quite a few sticky political aspects to a settlement, but that the important financial components are far easier. As such, they are the natural place to start once a basis of trust has been established. As noted in the previous article, Teams Trump and Putin have called off their cyber dogs as reciprocal steps in establishing this trust. As Stephen Bryen also noted, discussions are moving rapidly. The cleverness of Russia's "critical minerals" lure is not only its "win-win".

Processing REMs is very dirty, creating environmental challenges. It is more profitably handled in places where processing restrictions are lax. Processing is more profitable closer to the ore to reduce transport costs. Russia has a lot of space and a lot of ore, and if its government wants to process that ore, appropriate clearances can be created.

If the US partners with Russia to supply its tech sector, this creates a financial interdependence which reduces risks of new conflict. It will also require the removal of many of the US financial sanctions on Russia, which form part of Russia's settlement for the Ukraine conflict. This would potentially allow for US businesses to return to Russia, too. If this happens, it goes one step further. It begins the integration of the US into the multi-nodal world, as a partner within it rather than an adversary outside of it.

If Team Trump wishes to focus on non-belligerent economics, they can satisfy their tech sector donors and US mining interests with the Russian minerals deal dangling in front of them.

Returning to the discussion between Helmer and the Indian military officers, Helmer relayed information from his Russian military sources. In the process of the AFRF capturing the territory which remains to complete control of all four Ukrainian oblasts which Russia claims, the AFRF will not be contesting cities but skirting around them. Territory is the task. The cities will be choked in sieges as the AFRF flanks and passes them.

This tactic has already been seen around Pokrovsk. It will continue to minimize Russian casualties, forcing the AFU into the open when the AFRF have advantages in air and artillery support.

Out with the old, in with the Zaluzhny

Zelensky's "regrettable" non-apology to Team Trump has not solved his problems. The actor is not the sharpest knife in the draw, having left himself able to only interact with the other group with no cards to play, the EuroVassals. The US has stopped intelligence (targeting data*) sharing, requested that UK to the same, and there are reports that Elon Musk’s StarLink has become flaky on the front-line in Ukraine. These actions are clear indicators that the US wants the war settled and are practical steps to build trust with Russia.

(*): The limit seems to be on targeting for “deep inside Russia”. StormShadows are rudderless.

Expendable Zelensky is likely to soon be replaced by Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK, whose body has been under the watchful eye of, and whose ears have been in range of, the convincing chaps from MI-6. Zelensky needs to be replaced. Former Commander of the AFU Zaluzhny is being prepared to assume the role. He will be able to blame current incumbent Oleksandr Syrskyi for the AFU's failure in the war, which is why the UK organized his removal to them when they did. He is respected by the Russian General Staff. He is the solution for the implementation of a political and military solution pre-negotiated by Russia and the US.

There are many balls in the air, and it helps that the European leaders are bouncing around in a Lotto random number generator while the US and Russia negotiate down from a new security architecture to the details of a Ukraine settlement.

We can expect plenty of narrative and false trails as the Great Powers find an accommodation. They both want Ukraine out of the way. There are more important things to do than clean up a finished war.

Hold my beer

Back in Congress, Matt Taibbi just delivered some words of wisdom which happened to line up nicely with Team Trump's vendetta against the deep state:

USAID is just a tiny piece of a censorship machine Michael and I saw across a long list of agencies. Collectively they’ve bought up every part of the news production line: sources, think-tanks, research, “fact-checking,” “anti-disinformation,” commercial media scoring, and when all else fails, censorship.

It’s a giant closed messaging loop, whose purpose is to transform the free press into a consensus machine. There’s no way to remove the rot surgically. The whole mechanism has to go.

Well, thanks Matt. It may be helpful to let those in the pay of the varying lobbies behind the US government know that we know what they've been up to. Its this congressional funded media mendacity which manufactured the consent for the war in the first place.

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Sources

Ukraine, Diplomacy & War; Craig Murray; Consortium News; 2025-03-04

Europe's Face-Saving Theater on Ukraine; Joe Lauria; Consortium News; 2025-03-05

Ready Reckoner For President Donald Trump's Ukraine War Fighting, War Funding Numbers (Lies); John Helmer; Dances with Bears; 2025-03-03

• Helmer not only uses the SIG figures to document the Trump lies and deception, but also provides the IMF data to demostrate that it is facilitating a grand larceny of the profits from the impounded Russian central bank assets frozen in Belgium, the UK, Japan and elsewhere. The NATO allies' loans to Ukraine are a theft based on a principle which will almost certainly disappear, or be heavily reduced, in a settlement. The unrepayable debt will be nationalized against their citizens. War is a racket.

Trump's Incomprehension - “Thank You, Dear Donald"; John Helmer; Dances with Bears; 2025-02-24

Reality confronts the Euro ruling-strata - 'Through the tear in the fantasy bubble, they see their own demise'; Alastair Crooke; The Unz Review; 2025-03-04

Trump Suspends Intelligence Sharing With Ukrainian Military; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-03-05

• See notes for Dima’s video below for other intelligence shaing limits, and reports of loss of connectivity to StarLink.

British Storm Shadow Missiles Useless for Ukraine Following US Intelligence Pause; Dave DeCamp; Antiwar; 2025-03-06

US Cuts Intel and Aid to Ukraine: Beginning of the End, or Just More Flimflam?; Simplicius; Simplicius' Garden of Knowledge; 2025-03-06

Zelenski Tries To Make Nice With Trump; b.; Moon of Alabama; 2025-03-04

Yes, Trump is vulgar. But the US global shakedown is the same one as ever; Johnathan Cook; Jonathan Cook; 2025-03-04

War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine's Agricultural Land; The Oakland Institute; Archive.today; 2023-08-24

• Thanks to community member, Kojo.

My Statement to Congress; Matt Taibbi; Racket News; 2025-02-12

Project 2025: Trump's Policy Selection; YesXorNo; 2025-02-25

Why does the British elite hate Russia so much? w/ John Helmer; Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris; Reason2Resist with Dimitri Lascaris; 2025-03-04

Zelensky Wants To Outsmart Trump🧠 Russians Break Through The Defense Line In Sudzha💥 MS 2025.03.05 📅; Military Summary; Military Summary; 2025-03-05

• Dima mentioned that the [UK] Daily Mail reported that the US instructed the UK to stop providing Ukraine with intelligence. If true, this is another significant practical step in trust building between the US and Russia.

• Additionally, there are reports of rolling StarLink (Elon Musk) outages across the fronts for Ukrainian units. These began just after Zelenksy left the Oval Office.

Pepe Escobar: Trump's Power Move Against Zelensky!; Alkhorshid interviews Escobar; Dialogue Works; 2025-03-04

A Negotiating Matrix For Peace In Ukraine / Mr John Helmer/ Brig Arun Sahgal / Lt Gen Pr Shankar; GUNNERS SHOT; 2025-03-04

UK media claims possible Russia collapse; Christoforou and Mercouris; The Duran; 2025-03-03

Starmer WAR summit. Coalition of willing to fight Russia; Christoforou and Mercouris; The Duran; 2025-03-03

Vice President JD Vance reveals the moment the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting 'went off the rails'; Fox News; Fox News; 2025-03-04

Trump's Peace Plan & Rejection of War Narratives - George Beebe, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen; Diesen interviews Beebe & Mercouris; The Duran; 2025-03-05

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