Ukraine Update: Upcoming Chaos for Ukraine Looking Likely
A multi-front delayed offensive
[Image: a source cited by Simplicius.]
Published: 2023-02-20
Update 2023-03-01: Nothing is going to happen until after Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in a week or two.
Analysts
I take Larry Johnson's observations and analysis seriously. He describes Simplicius, an unnamed and seemingly obscure commentator on the Ukraine conflict, as having provided some of the best analysis he's seen.
The quick summary is that sources cited by Simplicius indicate a coming offensive. I've been circumspect on this, despite logical claims by Douglas Macgregor that holding 300 000 troops in full combat readiness reserve is costly, and thus they are likely to be used.
Horizon
The evidence is mounting. Simplicius's analysis is that this will not be a single bold advance, or even multiple advances launched simultaneously. No, a staged multi-front offensive, with different fronts activated at differing times to sow as much mayhem and confusing in the defending units as possible.
Makes sense to me.
The timing? Who knows. The 21-24 Feb "anniversary" is coming, so something may coincide with that for political purposes. I believe Russia's military leaders accept the need for political points, but are far more hard nosed about military victory. One point that Simplicius makes is that the "soft hand" to minimize civilian casualties which we have seen during and since Mariupol has been subverted by the continuous release of surrendered Russian soldiers being murdered in cold blood to the celebration of Ukrainian commanders and troops. Indeed, the UK supported sabotage of the Kerch Bridge was the precursor to the kid (young goat) gloves coming off.
Read reports carefully: Macgregor, Johnson, MoonOfAlabama, The New Atlas (Berletic), The Duran, Military Summary, and more. Do not forget that Russia's military play by the Clausowitz doctrine; it is a hard nosed branch of politics. Notice also the recent changes in narrative from the west. Who is "running out of ammo" now? Crimea is a "red-line". The Western idiots are waking up, just as Russia's military and her allies in Donetsk and Lugansk are looking all too ready to dramatically change not just the script, but the calculus.
Sources
SITREP: Update 2/18 - Major War Confirmed Imminent, Simplicius, his newsletter, 2023-02-18