Unwinding the Generated Syrian Civil War
Russia brokers a political peace between Türkiye and Syria
[Image: قاسم سلیمانی by Khamenei.ir, CC BY 4.0]
Publication date: 2023-01-05
Update 2023-01-07: added a The Duran video as a source. They too spot the commonalities of the failed Syria and Venezuela coup attempts.
Background
During the Arab Spring vocal and peaceful protests erupted in Syria against the government and its decades long ruling family, al Assad. The CIA and US State Department with assistance from contractors including the RAND corporation saw an opportunity to convert the civil protests into a coup, as they responded naturally to their DNA. The UK was involved in fueling the conflict through its human intelligence networks and media operations funded via its "foreign office", the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). Their main product was "The White Helmets" a pseudo-organization rather than the actual Syrian emergency response services like the police, fire departments and ambulance teams. The US's main role was arming the coup via Operation Timber Sycamore. Foreign fighters, often religious zealots, flowed into Syria to be armed with USA military industrial complex produced weaponry. The USA followed up by imposing the Caesar sanctions in Syria; a collective punishment of the population which continue to this day.
Türkiye, as a member of NATO, had a leading hand in connecting the supply. Armed mercenaries and zealots from the conflict in Libya and the Chinese Muslim region of Jinjiang moved through Türkiye into northern Syria. As predicted by the USA's Defence Intelligence Agency, an Islamic Caliphate was declared by the more radical zealots who were branded by western media as ISIS.
Well done western intelligence organisations. Isis is the romanized version of one of the most significant Egyptian goddesses whose worship extended into Europe during the Dark Ages. According to Egyptian mythology, Isis taught the women of Egypt how to weave, bake and brew beer.
The Shift
For several years Moscow has been the most significant diplomatic city. Recently, chaired by the Russian Federation's Defence Minister Shoigu, the defence and military intelligence leaders from Syria and Türkiye held a meeting which produced a welcome and astonishing outcome. Türkiye would withdraw all forces from Syrian territory. Syria would recognize the revolutionary Kurds as a common enemy. This outcome portends two essential results. The last phases of the foreign funded and armed insurrection in Syria will conclude. The USA military invasion will be left with no allies apart from the Kurds who are now in a political vice.
The question of whether it is more dangerous to be an enemy or ally of the USA is neatly answered by the Kurdish "resistance".
To see the situation, lets put some cards on the table. Syria has the support of Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. The majority population of Iraq, Shia Muslims, under the leadership of recently assassinated IRGC leader Qasem Soleimani (قاسم سلیمانی) defeated the radical Sunni Muslim group labelled as ISIS. Syria has re-established diplomatic relations with her middle eastern and Persian gulf neighbours. One would be risking ridicule declaring any unity in the middle east. A semblance of calm and diplomacy is emerging. What is demonstrable is that Russia have not only their established naval base at Tartus but now also an air base at Khmeimim. Its runway was expanded to allow a flight range of over 2 000 Km giving Russia an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" which covers all of the eastern Mediterranean, including Israel.
The most significant player, of course, is Russia with her ally China. I must again role out the key inter-governmental organisations and policies; the SCO, BRICS+ and the BRI. The Anglosphere idiots have, by their unrestrained violence and plunder, driven not only most of Asia, but now also most of the middle east (western Asia) into diplomatic cordiality with attendant trade and some security bonds. Africa have joined the party too. In South America the pink tide is returning with Lula’s recent assumption of the presidency. Maduro is still the Venezuelan president despite all coup efforts by the USA.
Juan Guaido is now as politically isolated as the Kurds.
Risk
A year and a half ago I wrote an article on advancements in Chinese naval capacity which concludes by asking a question based on the board game Risk: which mode are we playing, world domination or strategic objective?
I believe I can now answer that question, strategic objective. The strategic objective is to escape world domination.
Risk is a simple lesson in strategic analysis. It, however, does include an important element, chance. Conflicts on the board are resolved with dice but give an advantage to the defender. Rewards, in the form of armies, are received from controlling entire continents. In a game-theoretic analysis the continents and their rewards are balanced by the number of territories required to conquer them and the number of connections to other continents from which one may be attacked. The biggest prize is Asia, but brings with it being attacked from everywhere apart from South America. The easiest to defend prizes are Australia (Oceania) and South America. The key prize, if one can defend it, is North America.
Looking at the current geopolitical landscape of a game with tens of players, those from Asia, Africa and South America are colluding to deny the dominance of North America and Europe. As former Australian president Paul Keating would say, Australia is still trying to discover where on the world map it sits. Politically it aligns with North America and the UK; it is geographically adjacent to Asia.
Russia's brokering of a resolution to the USA/UK generated civil war in Syria is a feather in her cap. The SCO will be proud, especially newly invited member Iran. The resolution of the conflict is critical to the Chinese investment to rebuild Syria. Trade between Syria and Türkiye can once again flourish.
Can you see the pieces of the incoming peace?
Sources
The Red Line and the Rat Line, Symour Hersh, London Review of Books, 2014-04-17
Russia consolidates in East Mediterranean, M. K. Bhadrakumar, his website, 2022-12-31
News from Syria, Gilbert Doctorow, his website, 2023-01-01
Turkey, Syria coming together. Bolton fumes, wants Turkey out of NATO, Alexander Mercuris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2023-01-04
During this interview, Aaron Maté describes an element of the gun running from Syria to Türkiye to fuel the Syrian conflict:
GOP Rebels REFUSE To Crown Kevin McCarthy Speaker!, Aaron Maté interviews Jimmy Dore, The Jimmy Dore Show, 2023-01-05
Juan Guaidó, another failed regime change reaches its conclusion, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou, The Duran, 2023-01-06
Culture
Australian Crawl - Reckless (1983), uploaded 2013-06-18
As usual, don’t watch, just listen.
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Nicely put.
One twist, according to Martin Armstrong, is that one of the motives to attack Assad's Syria was that there was a pipeline planned from Qatar to Europe which apparently needed to go through Syria. The pipeline would have competed with Russian oil/gas going to Europe and so would have weakened Russia. Another possible reason for Russia to assist Assad.