US/NATO Invades Russia as a Training Exercise
Boys with toys
Published: 2024-08-16
Updated 2024-08-25: added reference Back to the Bloodlands, by Big Serge. I recommend this carefully written analysis of the folly of this operation.
The NATO invasion of the Russian Federation region of Kursk, by predominantly Ukrainian military units, required approval from Ukraine's leader, the US. The operation uses NATO military hardware, both directly in the invasion and from neighbouring Ukrainian regions. US HIMARS missiles have been fired at Russian troop columns in Russia being moved to counter the invasion. US observation data (intelligence) enabled the operation by identifying the area's weak defenses. It is being used to run the operation.
The invasion of Russia is a US operation using mostly Ukrainian ground troops.
Anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows Kursk is a NATO operation – conceived with a high degree of probability by an Anglo-American combo supervising the Ukronazi cannon fodder.
A Financial Times report included an interview with a Ukrainian soldier. His company came across a group of unarmed Russian border guards drinking coffee. They killed them all, a war crime. One recalls the routine attacking of civilian gatherings and infrastructure by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) during the 8 year long civil war with the Donbas region before Russia began its Special Military Operation. The AFU bombed market places, hospitals, schools, day-care centers and water treatment plants, and the streets of Donestsk city with cluster munitions.
Reports have emerged that Russia's military intelligence warned General Gerasimov, in overall command of the war, of the amassing of forces on the Ukrainian side of the Kursk border. Gerasimov dismissed the warning and did not deploy forces to counter the threat. This, being seen by US surveillance, enabled the initial success of the invasion begun on August 6th, 2024, the 79th anniversary of the US nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, Japan.
To return to the key information that came at the end of the WION report: they tell us that the Russian senior commander general Valery Gerasimov had in fact been informed by Russian military intelligence that Ukraine was preparing an assault on Kursk, but he dismissed it and took no action. It was for this very reason that he has been relieved of responsibility for the military operation in Kursk.
The operation is large, likely involving 10 000 troops or more, with a core of 3 brigades. Soon after it started, local residents were telephoned advising them to evacuate. Roads initially clogged with evacuees hampered defense logistics. The aforementioned US HIMARS attack targeted Russian units immobilized by the traffic. A national campaign, largely contributed towards by civil society, has been supporting the evacuees with essentials.
Reporting of the fighting in Kursk is extremely limited. There has been very little coverage on Russian media, reports expert Gilbert Doctorow. Useful information in Western media is also scant, being composed mostly of comments by political pundits and equally uninformed politicians.
After capturing an initial area, the NATO overseen command sent units to probe further opportunities for advance. The current extent is between 500 and 1000 sq. Kilometres and includes between 30 and 70 villages or small towns. Now, after 10 days, advances are reportedly becoming far more difficult. Lines of logistics and troops are stretching for the invaders as they are meeting professional defense units and their focused command. The defensive units have been largely drawn from other Russian regional commands, with selected, specialist, experienced units recalled from fronts in former Ukrainian territory.
History informs us, and it is widely acknowledged that, the invasion operation will fail. Russia will reclaim its territory. The only question is when.
Given the certainty of this result, suggestions have been made to answer why the operation was initiated? The ramifications are obvious. The AFU will lose many of its elite troops and much of their equipment, further weakening an already weak AFU.
A Training Exercise
One suggested objective was the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP). There remains no evidence of invading forces being anywhere near it. With the lines stabilized and Russian aviation attacks on the rear of the invading forces, this will not happen. The incursion did not make it half way to the KNPP with major logistical choke points still between their most extreme advance and the facility. Thus, this was a pipe dream and only makes partial sense as a realistic objective.
Another suggestion was that Ukraine would take and hold territory to give it a stronger negotiating position in any peace discussions. This is utter rubbish. Ukraine never had a chance of defeating Russia, and Russia will not cede territory. There will be no discussions until every invader is dead or gone.
Another potential objective was to force Russia to divert forces away from the fronts they are advancing on in Donetsk. Instead, Russia is continuing to make significant advances toward the last major city in Western Donetsk, Pokrovsk.
[Russian forces approach Pokrovsk. See Military Summary.]
The only "advantage" to Ukraine is that it is in the news again and has demonstrated that it still has some military capacity, and that it has temporarily embarrassed Russia. This ephemeral, fleeting bump in its media campaign cannot replace the military damage it will suffer. The invasion is suicidal, militarily. When that becomes obvious in Kiev, it will be suicidal, politically.
The understanding, offered by Scott Ritter, that the operation is being run by NATO combined arms command, provides a plausible reason for the operation. It is a military training exercise for their command leadership at the expense of the AFU, Ukraine and Russian troops.
To mount the operation, NATO equipment being delivered to Ukraine had to be secretly stockpiled, withheld from the lines of contact. AFU soldiers trained in NATO facilities in Europe were provided with this amassed equipment to attack Russia under the command of NATO and Ukrainian officers.
The war in Ukraine is a new form of land war, dominated by ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) from satellites to different fixed wing aircraft to lower altitude drones. It is predominantly fought with stand off weaponry. These include medium to long range missiles, with Russia employing some hypersonics. Closer range systems include multiple launch rocket systems, artillery and mortars, and Russian glide bombs. Drones carrying explosives vary from long to close range. Each side has been adapting and learning during the conflict, refining its armaments and the tactics for them. The Russian FAB glide bombs were an adaptation during the conflict, re-purposing old Soviet era explosives by adding glide wings and automatic guidance.
Given that the war has settled into one of attrition, pitting Russia's national economy and production capacity against that which the West could expend, by early 2024 all insightful analysts had concluded that Ukraine had lost. Russia had destroyed at least four different Ukrainian armies, resupplied by NATO each time with differing armaments. Russia had also withstood, and reflected back, the economic attacks against it predominantly issued by a myopic European Union. Soldiers fighting were mostly drafted from Ukraine's population. Ukrainian officials tasked with requisitioning young men are now the most hated in Ukraine. There are no young men left to recruit. They have either died, emigrated, fled or are in hiding.
This last, throw of the dice, suicidal operation is for NATO tactical command; for their education. The previous major operation, a counter-attack against the triple deep, Russian Surovikin Line in Donbas was an utter failure, costing the AFU 200 000 men. From it, NATO command learned very little. This operation has more to offer for them, employing their latest adaptations and ISR integrated command against an initially minimal defence.
Russia is classifying their operation to remove the invaders from their territory as a Counter Terrorist Operation. This releases them from abiding by the Laws of War, which Ukraine has been ignoring for a decade. Multiple evacuation orders have been issued for different areas of Kursk which will greatly minimize the risk of Russia's forces killing their own citizens. This, in turn, will enable Russia to use its most destructive armaments to destroy all invading forces and equipment. Towns may be destroyed. They can be rebuilt. Compensation can be paid. There is a lot of new territory in former Ukraine to be settled. Economic opportunities for these new territories need to be created, and a workforce is required.
Russia has been through this before in its long history.
Impotent Provocation
On a grand scale, little has changed. Russia has defeated the West, irrespective of this wildly dangerous NATO provocation. Ukraine was rated "selective default" by S&P a week ago and has just defaulted on a Eurobond loan. Its economy is shot. Its government can only survive on hand-outs from the West. Its Armed Forces are almost defeated. There is only one way this story ends.
Contrary to US Secretary of Defence Austin's desired outcome to "weaken Russia", Russia is unified. It is the West which has weakened itself, especially in Europe. Its ongoing provocations, particularly by supporting the insane, genocidal Zionists in Israel, will further entrap it in failed campaigns against an also unifying Global Majority led by international collaborations like BRICS+ and the SCO.
Failing empires flail in military adventurism, desperately believing in their past glory rather than assessing a changing environment. The US is no different. Most importantly, it is not addressing critical issues at home. This lack of desire to see a weakening centre is also common in collapsing empires.
Playing ideologically driven identity politics may keep the citizenry entertained for six months, but it does not feed, house, educate, care for or cloth them for the other three and a half years between election distractions. Their media pundits and politicians crowing about the current but suicidal operation on the territory of the Russian Federation provide no assistance to the soldiers. They refuse to acknowledge its certain outcome, just as they don't acknowledge that it is US/NATO led.
All is transient spectacle in their media driven world of platitudes and propaganda. The people of Ukraine will be dealing with the harsh reality which the US and NATO are creating for them. To praphrase a line from the late warmonger Heinze Kissinger, being an enemy of the US is dangerous, being a non-allied ally, is even more so.
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Sources
FT Reports A Ukrainian Warcrime, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-08-15
How Ukraine pulled off its biggest gamble: invading Russia, Christopher Miller, Financial Times, 2024-08-12
So What Really Happened in Kursk?, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2024-08-16
The Kursk Offensive and the Risk of a Wider War, James Carden, The American Conservative, 2024-08-15
Kursk: Why did Russian military intelligence not see the coming Ukrainian incursion?, Gilbert Doctorow, Gilbert Doctorow, 2024-08-16
Back to the Bloodlands: Operation Krepost, Big Serge, Big Serge Thought, 2024-08-20
Pepe Escobar: Scott Ritter, Israel Losing, Russia Losing its Patience [b4fHaQbhEsc], Escobar with Alkorshid, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-14
Ray McGovern： Putin’s PATIENCE THINNING？ Israel’s Plan to Drag the US into WAR with Iran! [_IPloGS6Qr0], McGovern with Alkorshid, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-15
Dmitry Orlov： Russia Just HUMILIATED NATO [4283RH0Qq7o], Orlov with Alkorshid, Dialogue Works, 2024-08-14
The Heat🔥 Syrsky'\''s Bluff Is Exposed⚠️ Russians Break Through To Pokrovsk⚔️Military Summary 2024.8.15 [md__qUOSPsk], Dima, Military Summary, 2024-08-15
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