US/NATO/Russia/SCO: Reality Asserts itself; a Cracking Narrative
Reality Asserts itself; a Cracking Narrative
Publication date: 2022-02-06
Update 2022-02-08: added a Culture section. Thanks to Anatol Lieven for the inspiration. An additional commentary source has been added.
A recent "heated discussion" between USA State Department spokesman Ned Price and veteran AP reporter Matthew Lee has been making the rounds in alternate media sources. The exchange provides a window into the changes occurring in our multi-polar world.
Introduction
During the northern spring of 2021 the USA and UK made threats, including providing even further military support to Ukraine, against the two breakaway republics in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.
In response, Russia deployed two armies and 3 paratroop battalions to their south western border, near Ukraine. The USA de-escalated by diverting two naval vessels away from their course to the Black Sea, instead to a friendly port in the eastern Mediterranean. It was this response, and de-escalation which lead to the 2021 June Summit between the USA and Russian Federation Presidents, Biden and Putin.
During the autumn, Russia bolstered its standard border defense forces in the sector from Belarus to Crimea, including the forward deployment of logistics support for further deployment. Since November 2021 the USA has been issuing ever louder warnings of an "imminent" attack by Russia on Ukraine, despite this being an obviously stupid idea for Russia. She has re-acquired Crimea, and will likely support the Russian and Russian speaking peoples of eastern and perhaps southern Ukraine, but the country is a politically divided and an economic basket case.
Following the 2008 statements by NATO to offer to include Georgia and Ukraine in their alliance, Russia has consistently been saying that this threatens her security and is completely unacceptable. During the late 1990s and early 2000s Russia watched NATO advance ever closer to her western borders. There are 3 key states which she will not accept joining NATO, the two mentioned, and Belarus.
In mid December 2021 Russia published two draft treaties to be discussed for adoption by the USA and NATO. Russia demanded written responses to the draft treaties. Discussions occurred in three European capitals between the USA, NATO the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Russian Federation. Finally, written responses to the two draft treaties were issued in confidence, though they have recently been leaked [direct link to the PDF published by El Pais].
As this process was under way, the USA's narrative was to maintain the "imminent" threat, though that then devolved into a series of "intelligence" driven narratives. The “imminent” had grown stale and is no longer "imminent". It is being replaced by these two new narratives.
The first was that Russia was to magically install a puppet government in Ukraine, reported by the USA administration as having been issued by British intelligence (i.e MI-6). The “plot” involved a former Ukrainian politician who is currently under Russian sanctions returning to Ukraine and somehow installing himself. It has also been shown that this was a USA generated narrative that was whitewashed through British intelligence for the USA to announce that the British “discovered” it.
The second narrative is that Russia is planning to use "crisis actors" to generated a propaganda film, a false flag operation, with which to justify an invasion of Ukraine. Again, this makes very little sense for Russia. Those who followed the conflict in Syria will have learned about these exact tactics having been used by "The White Helmets" and other groups associated with the foreign funded, armed and trained proxy forces.
Heated Discussion
The C-SPAN video below captures the initial statements by Ned Price and all of his “heated” interaction with the Matt Lee.
[Video: from C-SPAN. See Sources for details.]
Watching Mr. Price's eyes one can see that he is reading his initial statements from a teleprompter. Thus, he is reading a statement prepared by the USA State Department. His initial statements could be summarized as:
We have already warned that we believe that Russia intends to use a false flag event to initiate an invasion of Ukraine
"Now we can say that the United States has information that Russia is planning to stage fabricated attacks by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces as a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine." [The italics is the “new” “information”]
The "entirely fabricated" video will involve "crisis actors" and "graphic scenes of false explosions"
The false flag video is one of a number of options [for Russia]
The reason for announcing this now is to "dissuade Russia" from taking this or related actions
Russia "has signaled its willing to continue diplomatic talks"
Russia is issuing lots of disinformation
Mr. Lee seeks to clarify the language used, particularly asking what “actions” Russia has taken, and asks for evidence. Ned mentions "reports". Matt asks where these reports are. Ned does not answer the question but that of "actions", and refers to a previous press briefing in which they declared that Russia had "pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine" as an example of an “action”.
We are, of course, descending into circular argument here and Mr. Lee is not impressed. He gets under Ned's collar with his "Alex Jones territory" comment and Ned does actually slip up, apart from the evidence free assertions and circular argument.
Ned Price says that his statements are "derived from information which is known to the government, intelligence information that we have declassified". Matt asks where this information is and we all laugh when Price says "I just delivered it". This is not how intelligence information declassification works in the USA. The process involves an "intelligence product" which is an official publication, on official letterhead with a date, and lists which agencies were involved. Price then tries to claim that the transcript of the press briefing will be this "intelligence declassification". As an ex-CIA analyst, Price knows that this is not how things work. He is confusing the CIA providing "anonymous officials said" sourcing to newspapers with formal declassification. They are entirely different processes, he knows this, and is misleadingly conflating the two.
Later, Price reinforces the motivations for the press conference. They are to "deter the Russians from going ahead with this activity" and to "lay bare that this [a false flag operation] has always been an attempt on the part of the Russian Federation to fabricate a pretext". As Lee persists to ask for evidence, Price continues with "if you doubt the credibility of the US government, the British government ..." and goes down the "Russian dupe" line. It is quite notable that Price mentions the British government here. We are hearing confirmation of the inter intelligence-agency whitewashing loop documented by MoonOfAlabma for the "puppet government" narrative.
To show just how insane this whole information loop is, Sky News is reporting that this evidence free assertion by Mr. Price is the reason that Russia has not invaded. This is a warning to us all to watch out for these types of literally incredible media pieces. [The source for this is, again, Caitlin Johnstone.]
The establishment media are validating Price’s “motivation” in “dissuading Russia” from doing mystical things.
The Significance of the Questions
The most significant news outlets in "the west" are not the New York Times, the BBC and Le Monde, but Associated Press (AP), Reuters and Agence France-Presse (AFP). It is to these news wire services to which major news publications subscribe and from which they obtain much of their news. The wire services supply most of a news outlet’s source. The outlet customizes the source information to create a news product article for their audience.
It is quite significant that an AP reporter is declaring to the USA State Department press representative that he no longer wishes to be a stenographer. His final plea is most illustrative:
[Give the people of the world] one piece of evidence [to support your assertions]
In the days of the unipolar world following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the USA and its "partners and allies" began to actually believe that they could "create their own reality" via narrative control and the employment of other methods, like fear and coercion. What this small interlude shows us is that this belief is starting to meet a little resistance.
Reality Asserts Itself
Elements of the leaked response, according to Ray McGovern hint at a verification mechanism to support arms control limitations in two key areas outlined by Russia. They key passage in the leaked response seems to be on page 10 of the PDF published by El Pais. The text of the first point under "Aegis Ashore" contains the relevant statements. The peoples of Europe may be glad to learn that these issues which Russia has been raising for 15 years are finally being directly addressed in this communique, and that a key component, that of verification, which underpinned the arms controls treaties of the 1980s, has returned.
It is clearly apparent that many NATO members neither wish to escalate the situation in Ukraine, nor participate in USA lead sweeping financial sanctions against Russia. None of France, Germany or Italy will provide offensive weaponry to Ukraine, nor will Hungary or Croatia. Delegations have been sent to Moscow recently by Germany and Hungary. France's Macron has had cordial and constructive dialogue with Russia's Putin and declared that he intends to involve Russia in all of the EU's security discussions as France holds the EU presidency for the first half of 2022. Hungary has signed a new energy supply deal with Russia. Germany has all but refused to be involved in economic sanctions. The new leader of the CDU party, Friedrich Merz, declared that removing Russia from SWIFT would actually destroy it (SWIFT). His reasoning is simple. Germany needs the energy and must pay for it. If it cannot be done via SWIFT it will be done by the Chinese alternative and via which the funds will be delivered to Russia.
Mr Merz also made the observation that the cause of this whole affair is the EU’s offer of association to Ukraine in 2013 which demanded that Ukraine remove the free trade zone arrangements between herself and Russia. These agreements were the economic lifeblood of eastern Ukraine. Thus, following the signing of the EU association agreement and then declaring Russian not an official language of Ukraine, the government had alienated the native Russian language speakers, and destroyed the economic livelihood of eastern Ukraine. When combined with the neo-Nazi alliances of the new government and the fact that those in the eastern provinces suffered heavily under 2 years of occupation by Germany’s Nazi invaders during WWII one can see that this sequence of actions was destined to create the civil conflict which has been plaguing the country. These triggers for the conflict also point towards the elements of independence which could be provided to the hopefully soon autonomous regions to reduce tension and resolve the conflict.
Signs augur well for some form of detente, with additional political support being provided to the Normandy Format to implement the Minsk Accords coming from both France and Germany. This is the only resolution mechanism which has been endorsed by the UN Security Council, with universal support.
At the end of Sources, below, is a wide ranging discussion, hosted by CN Live, between Scott Ritter and Alexander Mercouris. It is thought provoking and informative and highly recommended.
Meanwhile, China and Russia have issued another extensive joint declaration and are continuing with their plans for Eurasian economic integration.
Sources
British Government Laundered Fake U.S. 'Intelligence' On Ukraine, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2022-01-30
The Syria Campaign, The Grayzone
Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media
Heated Exchange Between State Dept. & Media on Evidence Russia Fabricating Attacks by Ukraine, Whitehouse spokesperson Ned Price via C-SPAN, C-SPAN's youtube channel, 2022-02-03
[embedded above]
Anonymous Officials Claim There's An Evil Russian Plot Again But The Evidence Is Secret Again, Caitlin Johnstone, her newsletter, 2022-01-23
False Flags Suddenly No Longer A Crazy Conspiracy Theory, Caitlin Johnstone, her newsletter, 2022-01-16
Ukraine-Russia tensions: Moscow's plans 'ruined' after US and Britain call out possible invasion, Deborah Haynes, Sky News, 2022-02-03
US Makes Putin Offer He Can Hardly Refuse, Ray McGovern, AntiWar, 2022-02-02
What a US Trap for Russia in Ukraine Might Look Like, Joe Lauria, ConsortiumNews, 2022-02-04
Scott Ritter and I Debate U.S.-Russia-China, Ray McGovern and Scott Ritter debate the Ukraine situation on Sputnik’s Critical Hour, from Ray McGovern’s website, 2022-02-05
Audio: https://raymcgovern.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/critical_hour_903_seg_5.mp3
Erdogan in Kiev, Putin in Beijing: Can Neo-Ottomanism Fit Into Greater Eurasia?, Pepe Escobar, Unz Review, 2022-02-04
WATCH: New CN Live! — ‘A Bear Trap in Ukraine?’, Joe Lauria hosts Scott Ritter and Alexander Mercouris, ConsortiumNews (CN Live), 2022-02-02
Updated sources
PATRICK LAWRENCE: Propaganda and Evidence, Patrick Lawrence, Consortium News, 2022-02-07
Culture
Would I Lie to You? (Remastered Version), Eurythmics from their 1985 album Be Yourself Tonight, their youtube channel, uploaded 2015-09-01
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