WEFfling on about Fracture
Ukraine is the kinetic manifestation of a process which has been evolving for over a decade.
[Image: plate tectonics]
Published 2023-01-19
A ramble on this article is available. The audio monologue is an augment.
Economic Fractures
While discussions at the latest version of the circus known as the World Economic Forum has been about Ukraine, a distinct background topic even alluded to by maestro Schwab has been "fracture". Fracture is WEF parlance for multi-polar.
A recent meeting between US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin and Chinese Vice President Lui He emphasized dialogue and communication. Meanwhile, the USA Congress has just established a sub-committee to address competition between the two nations and economies.
It is all laughable. The "dialogue" reeks of the delaying tactics of the Minsk Accords. How is the USA going to compete with China economically? As Michael Hudson has been describing for years the USA economy is based on Financialization, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE), while China's is based upon manufacturing.
China recently released its economic performance for 2022 which showed a 3% increase in GDP, which is a drop on decades of excellent performance. Nonetheless, China's per capital income now approaches the "rich" bracket at 12 000 USD per annum, and this is for 1.3 billion people. This includes free education and health-care, including considered town planning and infrastructure, and excellent transportation. While the upper tiers of politics are infested with corruption everywhere, China is still investing in her people. If one's economy is doing that well, one can afford both.
The fracture is real, and there is little that the USA can do about it. The recent CIA fueled violence in Brazil's capital failed to produce a draconian response. Lula is back. His inclusive approach to his cabinet displays that his room for maneuver is limited. Nonetheless, his geopolitical message is clear. Again, a forging of regional ties in Latin America and continued engagement in BRICS which is now evolving into BRICS+. That ‘plus’ includes Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina and other nations like Morocco. Due to its political, economic and military violence the "west" is isolating itself.
There is very little the USA/NATO can do to stop China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It has recently merged with Russia's Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The dual grouping of organisations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS, with their initiatives of BRI and general de-dollarization are the foundation for the decolonialisation from first Europe and then the USA by most of the rest of the world. The "west" are throwing their toys out of the pram, literally. On the side, Thailand has agreed to connect her railways with the improvements that China has established in Laos and Cambodia.
The Asian Jigsaw
The USA funded coup against Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan is creating political blowback. India is playing a careful independent role. Iran is soon to be a fully fledged member of the SCO. Turkey and Syria are, with Russian mediation, seeking a rapprochement. Its a jigsaw puzzle of Asia. The pieces are slowly being put in place to create regional relations which resist the sea-power based former and recent colonists.
On the Ukraine front, the UK has committed to sending 12 Challenger-2 main battle tanks to Ukraine. Germany is refusing to send any Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine unless the USA also sends its Abrams tanks. Meanwhile Russia's mobilization is approaching completion giving them an additional 400 000 troops and their military industrial complex is ramping up to reach the level of the combined west. Indeed, the USA has been raiding artillery stockpiles in South Korea, and now Israel to supply Ukraine with the NATO standard 155 mm ammunition. None of this resupply matters. Russia is destroying whichever systems pass through the corruption of the Ukraine government.
Alex Christoforou keenly observes that whenever Russia makes gains in the conflict the "west" responds by sending more military hardware. Bernard from MoonOfAlabama asks for how long will Russia be the frog in this escalatory boiling pot? The USA has been musing about assisting Ukraine to attack Crimea. This is not a red-line but a black-line. This verbal threat seems like kabuki theatre. As Bernard notes, the last time the "west" attacked Crimea (the Kursk bridge) Russia responded by attacking the electrical infrastructure of Ukraine, which continues. Remember that following the assassination of IGRC General Sulemieni Iran gave two hours notice of an impending missile strike on a USA military base in Syria. Russia did not respond to the west's sabotage of three of the four Nord Stream pipelines. I believe an attack on Crimea will produce a less measured response.
Russian Federation President Putin has just asked the Duma to construct and pass legislation that will remove Russia from 21 treaties with the EU which were agreed post WWII and up to the 1990's. This is a very big deal. Russia is saying "we're out". This is symbolic of the "fracture".
[Image: a screenshot from a recent Alex Christoforou video.]
In a recent lengthy press conference by the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov compared the current conflict in Ukraine to the combined European attacks against Russia first by Bonaparte and then by Hitler. This again symbolizes the fracture. Its a warning.
Cultural Fractures
Emmanuel Todd, a respected French anthropologist gave a recent interview to Le Figaro. He describes the cultural polarization which is occurring by examining the structures of society, and particularly that of the family unit. 75% of the world has a patrilineal approach which is echoed in Russia's conservative Orthodox church's ideology. This resonates.
While nations, like India, are using the idiotic sanctions regime imposed on Russia by the EU to generate revenue, and the fracture is creating opportunities for new alliances to escape western hegemony, this anthropological element is also at play. The celebration rather than acknowledgment of minor elements of society, like homosexuality or other variants in the LGBTQI... formula, is irksome to more conservative elements of society. The trans-humanist woke ideology is a threat to the core family unit via which humanity has survived since its beginnings. The position that Russia and Hungary have taken is of reassurance to moral conservatives.
Todd also declares that WWIII has already started, with which I agree. The nature of this conflict is best seen in the restructuring of world trade relations and the shift away from the USD as the reserve currency. The kinetic conflict in Ukraine is a physical manifestation. What is happening is not so much a fracturing, as a realignment. The USA, despite initiating numerous wars and coups, speaks of freedom. USA neo-colonial policies have previously constrained most of the world.
This realignment is an expression of economic and political freedom.
Sources
'Fragmented World' Sleepwalks Into World War III, Pepe Escobar, The Unz Review, 2023-01-18
China’s economy is on a rebound, M. K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 2023-01-18
Ukraine - Pressing For Tanks, b., MoonOfAlabama, 2023-01-19
Report: Berlin Will Allow Export of Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine If US Sends Its Abrams Tank, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-01-18
At Davos, Zelensky Tells Western Backers to Speed Up Arms Deliveries, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-01-18
Pentagon Sends US Artillery Shells Stored in Israel and South Korea to Ukraine, Dave DeCamp, Antiwar, 2023-01-18
Yellen, China's Liu agree to enhance communication after 'frank exchange' - U.S. Treasury, Andrea Shalal, Reuters, 2023-01-23
‘World War 3 has already started’ between US and Russia/China, argues French scholar, Ben Norton, GeoPoliticalEconomy, 2023-01-14
CrossTalk | Negotiated settlement?, Lavelle interviews 3 guests on the Ukraine conflict and possible resolutions, CrossTalk (RT), 2023-01-23
Economists Radhika Desai & Michael Hudson explain multipolarity, decline of US hegemony, Hudson and Desai introduce their new fortnightly video discussion, GeoPoliticalEconomy, 2023-01-13
Jacinda resigns. Lavrov history lesson. NYT, US targets Crimea. Scholz, Abrams then Leopards. U/1, Alex Christoforou, his youtube channel, 2023-01-19
Culture
The Cure - Boys Don't Cry, The Cure
usual story, don’t watch, just listen.
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