5 More Years of War

The West's insatiable drive towards humiliation and isolation

Published: 2024-06-25

---

A meeting of the Russian Federation President with the organs of the Russian state at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had not been seen since November 2021, just before Russia issued its offer of a new security architecture for Europe, to both NATO and the US. During the recent event Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin offered terms for an immediate cessation of hostilities for the war in Ukraine, which neither he nor anyone else reasonably expected the West to reason with. The rejections were issued in hours.

The most insightful consideration yet of this carefully orchestrated event was by Alastair Crooke who in his 'Putin’s "War" to Re-shape the American Zeitgeist' offers a realistic and strategic view.

A first question is: to which event was this state affair responding? Or what motivated its timing? Many have looked to the PR stunt facilitated by the subservient Swiss at their summer-sandal Bürgenstock resort. Yes, Russia's offer did deflate that performance, but this would have been achieved by the representatives of significant states refusal to sign the watery stock-communique it produced. No, says Crooke. He instead points to the G-7 meeting in southern Italy which just preceeded cheesy Swiss event. There, the US signed a meaningless 10-year security arrangement with Ukraine, a state which exists only because of US and EU/NATO munitions supplied to its failing military and money to pay its insatiably corrupt government. Another $50 odd billion was russled up as a loan to never be repaid and somehow secured with profits accruing in a Belgian bank, Euroclear-as-mud, based on more than $200 billion of Central Bank assets stolen from Russia.

The G-7 meeting's outcome was a clear signal from the US that it will continue this war for the foreseeable future. Crooke's conclusion is that the cold-war ideologues which are directing US foreign policy, perhaps aligned with others attempting to have the warmed up cadavre of their current president re-elected, are set on their course. Russia must be prepared for this all too predictable state of affairs.

We are in for years more war. The requirement to change this is a change in perception from the citizenry or foreign policy establishment of the West which may be a very long time in the coming.

Let us accept this, that the US will just continue to run this losing war for as long as it can, and that Russia will maintain its current approach of attriting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the NATO forces in Ukraine targeting their weapons. Lets also take the hint offered by the German and British defense ministers back at the start of the year who spoke of preparing for a war with Russia in 5 years. There was already a war with Russia happening. We're in for 5 more years of it.

So be it.

5 years back

To understand where this will lead, lets take a quick review of some of the results of the last 5 years of US foreign policy.

At the beginning of 2019 then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the US "recognizes Juan Guaido as the new interim President of Venezuela". This failed coup in Venezuela lead to $2 billion Venezuelan gold being impounded by the Bank of England and various US corporations purchasing the assets of Citgo, a US company wholly the subsidiary of Venezuela's state owned oil company. (See Sources for a recent wonderful interview with Anya Parampil who details much of the corruption involved in the failed coup). The attempted coup also included the US declaring open season on embassies by invading Venezuela's in Washington D.C. The results of the coup were a further knitting of ties in the world opposed to US belligerence, with both Russia and Iran providing Venezuela with assistance.

By 2019 the Dirty War in Syria had utterly failed to oust Syrian President al Asad. Instead, it provided a vehicle for Iran's Republican Guard Corp to extend Iran's influence in Iraq. It was the training ground for General Soleimani's solidification of the Axis of Resistance which today is hampering and harrying the US presence in the region.

Anṣār Allāh remained after the US and UK sponsored Saudi war against Yemen, despite the humanitarian tragedy. For the last eight months, not only have Hizbollah been causing significant pain for genocidal, US special-ally Israel, but Yemen's Anṣār Allāh have essentially defeated the US navy while inflicting economic pain on the Zionists.

The end result of the Dirty War in Syria was the Arab League inviting Syria back into the fold as China produced the most unexpected of rapproachments between the Saudi Monarchy and the Iranian Supreme Council.

During the period, the Saudi's agreed to sell China their oil in China's currency, weakening the Petro-dollar and Iran signed a 25 year agreement with China trading their oil for infrastructure investment.

In 2021 the US tucked its tail between its legs, reminding the world of its hasty and haphazard escape from Saigon a generation earlier, as it fled Afghanistan, defeated by Afghanis under the leadership of the Taliban riding around in pickup trucks.

Hosted in Stuttgard, US AFRICOM, along with the its Freedom Fries French ally, have been forced to withdraw from a line of latitude right across Africa: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad and Sudan. There, the inept US forces theoretically fighting terrorism have been replaced by local or Russian forces.

China's Belt and Road Inititative has been continuing across Asia, from Laos to Pakistan. Its primary implementation mechanism, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has doubled in size. The more geographically diverse BRICS partnership followed suit with its doubling to BRICS+.

The US and EU's efforts to effect a regime change in Russia after it entered the US supported civil war in Ukraine on the side of the Russian ethnic peoples of Donbas were utterly defeated. The rest of the world saw no benefit in siding with the US and joining a trade war with Russia, knowing that China would not look favourably upon this. The technocratic US vassals in the EU commission, now up to their 14th sanctions package, have undermined their member states' economies and caused financial difficulties for the people of Europe, weakening the US European allies.

Before Russia joined the US sponsored civil war in Ukraine, China and Russia declared a partnership "beyond an alliance". This was the largest geopolitical event since the crimes of 9/11, or possibly the dissolution of the USSR.

Russia's security leadership in Central Asia has been reasserted through the CSTO defeating coups in both Kazakhstan and Belarus. It has formed an economic union with Belarus and has just entered into a strategic partnership with North Korea, including economic, military and cultural aspects.

5 years forward

Crooke characterizes the US stance on Russia with: "equal status between Moscow and Washington is out of the question". One can easily extend this arrogant, racist attitude to China.

The US foreign policy elites will not accept Russia, or China, as equals. Indeed, on June 24th the Council on Foreign Relations hosted new Undersecretary of State Campbell at a Symposium dedicated to the US strategy against China titled "China Strategy Initiative Launch". The word 'lauch' is rather amusing. Are they admiting that things have not gone well previously, or are they refusing to admit that the US has been provoking a war with China for almost a decade?

Assuming that the world doesn't burn up in a nuclear annihilation and that the war in Ukraine just continues on its attritional way, where will the US find itself in the future?

Its allies will be weaker. Europe is weaker now than it was 5 years ago, due almost entirely to the sanctions packages it has issued against Russia. Nobody in their right mind would want to join the technocratic EU with its neutered parliament after displaying this economic hari-kari. Britain has left. If Hungary's Orban held an plebicite on its leaving the EU, it is distinctly possible it too would leave.

While NATO's membership has expanded to include two previously neutral new Scandinavian nations, both without a plebicite, the only nations in NATO expressing a desire for a war with Russia are the UK and France. But, the French President has the lowest popularity in living memory. Macron is a lame duck who has just surrendered the French parliament to his political rivals. British Prime Minister Sunak is soon to leave office, though the British Uniparty will ensure continued fealty to the US even as their influence wanes.

The economic consequences of the war with Russia are being felt across Europe. Even the poorly informed can equate increases in "defence" spending with reduced economic circumstances. "Its the economy, stupid" will further intrude into other political preferences.

The international trade flows which were established defeating the Western sanctions against Russia will continue to build. The world can see that the West will continue to steal Russia's central bank assets to fund the war against Russia. Russia, China, indeed BRICS+ and the SCO, all know this. That the "Rules Based Order" steals other nations' assets and uses them to further its own geopoilitical agenda will continue to be brutally demonstrated. The moment for a nation to choose a geopolitical group with which to position itself was two years ago. These decisions have been made.

There are 50 nations waiting to join BRICS+, and as Scott Ritter wisely noted, BRICS+ needs to slow down. It takes time to establish the structures to manage large international organisations. Cultural sensitivities need to be learned, institutionalized.

The US is giving the BRICS+/SCO groups exactly what they need. The failing hegemon will continue to wage war and steal assets to do so. It will further weaken its allies and itself in the process by directing state funds to arms manufacturing which assists the rich which invest in them and a vanishingly small section of the population. BRICS and associated organisations like the SCO and the EurAsian Economic Union can and will quietly continue to offer sensible, stable alternatives to the theiving, belligerent US-led West.

Staring Into the Void of a Global Security Architecture

Two and half years of war have been fought. Russia and the international organisations of which it is a leading member are stronger. Russia is outproducing the West militarily. Russia can keep defeating Ukraine for years, at its own pace.

Russia's offer for an end to the conflict in Ukraine was in fact a return to its position both literally and geopolitically before the SMO. President Putin's speech suggested that future offers may not be so advantageous. This is true both for Ukraine, as Russia continues to demilitarize it, and for the West which is maintaining the war.

The only mechanism to produce a lasting solution is a new security architecture. Last time Russia was speaking about a European security architecture. Now it is moving inexorably to one of a far larger scope.

Given the number of conflicts which the US has generated and in which it engages itself, worldwide, and that Russia is outproducing NATO in arms, and its allies also produce sophisticated weaponry, what opportunities for these excess weapons exist? How many difficulties would the US like in Asia and the "Indo-Pacific"? What about the indigenous residents of the Chagos Islands whose home was converted into the massive US base, Diego Garcia? The list of grievances against US military bases is near endless.

This is the territory which the West is asking to be taken given that it will not negotiate. Sergei Karaganov, one of Russia's leading foreign policy figures, has been calling on Russia to consider two policies. One is a demonstration of Russia's nuclear capacity, an horrific suggestion. The other is to create circumstances in which the West feels economic pain for their warring. Given the extent of the BRICS+/SCO groups this is quite possible. Like minded nations could identify the key technologies and minerals required to produce and maintain the West's military and military systems. These could then be economically denied via tariffs, forcing the West to run more insurgencies to force political change to affordably provide them. These non-oil resouce wars have already been seen, especially for Lithium (recall the short-lived coup in Bolivia for which Elon Musk hailed “We’ll coup where we want!”).

Given China's percentage of manufacturing supply to the US, it can easily respond to the US State Department's recent increase in tariffs by increasing costs for goods the US wishes to import, affecting the US domestic market. The US is not in a position to win a trade war with BRICS+/SCO. As each year passes, the US position weakens even further, especially as the BRI project expands.

The racist, arrogant idiots running US foreign policy will continue to drive the US and its allies into decline and isolation. All Russia and its allies in Asia and abroad need to do is to remain calm, defend against the false flags, provocation and other idiocy which is likely to come, and let the US establishment elites continue to destroy the nation and its allies.

or support this work via Buy Me A Coffee or Patreon.

Sources

Putin’s "War" to Re-shape the American Zeitgeist, Alastair Crooke, The Unz Review, 2024-06-24

In Just Under Three Weeks, Ukrainian-Fired Prohibited “Petal” Mines Maim At Least 44 Civilians, Kill 2, in Donetsk Region, Eva K. Bartlett, Covert Action Magazine, 2023-08-23

• A reminder that Ukraine has been using cluster munitions against civilians for years. The only thing which is new about the recent ATACAMs missiles sent to attack Sevastopol is that they are US made and operated.

Deputy Secretary Campbell to Deliver Remarks on Sustaining U.S. Strategy in the Indo-Pacific, US State Dept, 2024-06-21 (for event on 24th)

[Symposium] China Strategy Initiative Launch Event, Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-06-24

The Moscow Conditions, Tarik Cyril Amar, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2024-06-24

Negotiate Now, or Capitulate Later: Ten Incentives for Ukraine to Make Peace with Russia, Geoffrey Roberts, Natylie's Place: Understanding Russia, 2024-06-24

Recognition of Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s Interim President, US State Department, 2019-01-23

Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Cripples Latin America, SL Kanthan interviews Anya Parampil, Geopolitics Demystified, 2024-06-22

---

Copyleft: CC0