A Troll, a Leak, an Interview, and a Proposition
Croissant for all!
Published: 2024-02-08
Marianne
Some elements of French military leadership chose to provide access to Laurent Valdiguié, from Marianne, three classified reports on the Ukraine conflict. These reports cover the military situation for Project Ukraine from late 2023, after the pre-announced, all singing and little dancing, Ukrainian manned and NATO led Spring Summer "Counter Offensive". The Marianne [original, French] article [partial translation, English] was published on March 7th.
On the 12th, seeing as nobody was paying attention to Marianne [except Bernard], RT pressed the "make it happen" button by releasing "Macron ‘panicked’ over leaked Ukraine reports – Marianne" in reference to the French President's recent antics.
On the next day, insane, bloodthirsty, Hitlerian Russian President "The Putin" gave an interview with Dmitry Kiselev for over 1.5 hours.
From the reports and interview, along with Medvedev's recent trolling, much is confirmed, more can be learned and a little divined.
Bravo, French Military Leadership
The revelations from the three French military reports are that the independent analysis by educated, honest experts, such as Macgregor, Berletic, Ritter and others, as reported in independent media are thoroughly vindicated. Additionally, the French military leadership can be favourably compared with their lying US counterparts.
The independent analysts' vindication is detailed and can be summarized with French military leaderships’ assessment that "Ukraine cannot win this conflict militarily" -- full stop. There is nothing that can be done. It is over.
They lay out the history, in line with the accounts provided in the independent media, but with some numbers. The failed offensive "tactically destroyed half of Ukraine's 12 brigades" because the Russian Army is "the 'tactical and technical' reference for thinking and implementing the defensive mode". Read that last bit again. French military command are saying, Russia is the world leader in defensive warfare. There is no way in which Ukraine can recover the territory it has lost. It does not matter who joins them in this failed endeavour, they too will fail.
Western "planning" underestimated everything, or more likely, based its assessment on Mythology [just making stuff up, or searching the internet looking for that which one wishes to make up, and saying someone else said it]. This, to use a McGovern phrase, is "fitting the intelligence to the policy". This mendacious approach allows any policy to be justified, and when the intent is to generate military spending, can lead to engineered "forever" wars. In this case, lead by blind ideologues like newly departed Nuland, they chose to pick a fight with the wrong tribe. Hopefully, this will be the last of these deadly, military, money laundering schemes. My hope is based on just how flagrant and obvious this whole Project has been.
The reports also explains French President Macron's recent panic.
In the report from last winter, after the failed offensive, a report specified the recruitment numbers. Then, Ukraine was conscripting 17 000 per month, but needed 35 000. Ukraine is certainly recruiting less than that now. Russia, then as now, receives 30 000 volunteers per month (and has hundreds of thousands in reserve, plus the entirety of the untouched Central and Eastern Military Districts’ armies). This confirms the core Ukrainian problem: men. The French clearly phrased this with:
The West can supply 3D printers to manufacture drones or loitering munitions, but can never print men
They praised the Russian Army for their use of their reserves: rotating before weariness, sufficient time away from the front, an appropriate mixture of well trained new recruits with experienced soldiers etc. etc. Russia does not do "human waves" or any of that other propagandist hyperbole. They assesed the Russian military as the best defensive army in the world, tactically and technically.
The reports also noted that the "Britons" have been involved all along, and from this we can derive the same of the French. One can recall the emergency evacuation of high level commanders from Mariupol, back in the early months of the war. There were reasonable allegations that French were among them. These reports add further weight to that assessment. NATO have been involved from the very beginning: CIA, MI-6, (the french equivalent), NATO military command and ISR data to boot, plus "mercenaries".
Lastly, the leaking of these reports by the French military leadership was obviously designed to encourage their President to cool his jets. Translated very simply it reads: To kill 1 500 Russians you have to kill 10 000 Ukrainian/NATO troops, and in so doing no territorial gain will be achieved.
Plugging the Dyke or Flooding the Field
Presumably, Macron issued the common political plea "What can be done?" In response, one report suggested the introduction of French troops to relieve Ukrainian forces which are not in battle. Among those would be border patrol, on the Belarusian border in the north, for example. Released Ukrainian units could reinforce the active, on line of contact.
This explains Macron's recent antics, and provides us with a window into the framing which Putin set up during the Kiselev interview.
Proposing a Settlement via Master Trolling
Recall Master Troller Medvedev's map, from the Global Majority/South youth gathering in Sochi.
There has been much, justified in my view, criticism of Russia's poor efforts in the "information war". I believe that they have considerably improved, with this little one-two by Medvedev, and then Putin responding to the French revelations "just as" they hit the English language independent media, prompted by an RT article.
Co-incidence? Nah ah. We, in the independent media sphere, are being played!
During Putin's interview he gently distinguished between European armies, particularly those with "historic ties" to western Ukraine and the US. When commenting on the former he stated that should they enter Ukraine they will "stay". He makes no overtly negative comment about this. When referring to the US military he explicitly labels them as 'invaders', implying that they will immediately be treated as enemy combatants.
Putin phrases the first point [with comment]:
If, say, Polish troops enter Ukrainian territory, allegedly for the protection of, say, the border between Belarus and Ukraine, or some other parts, to release Ukrainian troops and enable them to fight along the contact line, I think, Polish troops will stay there. That is what I believe. [This is a very careful, superfluous sentence. It creates a pause, to allow the audience to hear what has just been said.] It is their heart's desire to get back the lands they have historically regarded as theirs, the lands that ”Father of the Peoples“ Joseph Stalin took from them and gave to Ukraine. They certainly want to have these lands back. So if Polish troops enter Ukraine, they will hardly ever leave it.
In response to Kiselev asking about the US playing "chicken" with Russia, Putin phrases his second point as:
The United States announced that they are not going to send troops. We know what American troops in the Russian territory are. These are invaders. That is how we will treat them even if they appear in the territory of Ukraine, and they understand it.
This newsletter has repeatedly stated that Russia has no interest, whatsoever, in western Ukraine (Galicia). It is anti-Russian and the heartland of the Banderites, the modern Ukrainian Nazis. The above, if read in this light, and considering Mr. Medvedev's trolling, is a description of a potential 'geopolitical' settlement. It goes something like this:
“Europe, there is going to be a nightmare in western Ukraine, and in your populations where millions of western Ukrainians have emmigrated. Someone is going to need to keep the peace. Have at it!
Rump Ukraine is Kiev, and neutral.
Now, lets talk about the indivisibiliy of security again.”
Getting Played for Peace
The only sane person with a voice in Europe (excluding Russia) at the moment is Pope Francis. The unfortunate "white flag" notwithstanding, the only sane thing to be done at the moment is to negotiate a settlement before Russia continues to acquire the "optional extras" on offer in Ukraine. Given that nobody is at the table to negotiate with, Russia is subtly, proposing the outline of a settlement via the media. They have upped their 'information war' game.
When publishing the conclusion outlined above, is this newsletter, or are others independent media, being "played" by Russia? Guilty as charged! The other alternative is to reject negotiations and get more people killed.
When considering negotiations, recall the reasonable nature of the agreement between Ukraine and Russia which Boris Johnson scuttled at the behest of US/NATO in April. Recall that Russia withdrew the columns of forces it was sending towards Kiev as a sign of good faith. Yes, that was a feint, but it was that feint which created the pressure for the negotiations.
There is an endemic problem in the West, even in the independent media, created by a hangover of Cold War ideology, and the constant, vociferous clamoring by the West's Propaganda Matrix that "all things Russian are evil". Time and again, I have listening to reasoned commentators considering what can be done. These intelligent people constantly omit negotiation.
There are two ways to end a war. One is outright victory. That is an utter disaster for our fellow humans, being coralled and directed by the losing side. Thankfully, this is also a rare conclusion of hostilities. Negotiations are how it is done, and the sooner the better for all of humanity.
End the bloody wars!
or support this work via Buy Me A Coffee or Patreon.
Sources
Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron, Laurent Valdiguié, Marianne, 2024-03-07
French Defense Reports: A Ukrainian military victory now seems impossible, Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter/X, republished at Sign of the Times (SOTT), 2024-03-12
Macron ‘panicked’ over leaked Ukraine reports – Marianne, RT, 2024-03-12
French Defense Reports Acknowledge Ukraine Is Done With, b., Moon of Alabama, 2024-03-12
Explosive Secret French Military Report Makes Shocking Admissions: "Ukraine Can't Win!", Simplicius The Thinker, 2024-03-14
Interview to Dmitry Kiselev (transcript), Kremlin, Russian Federation, 2024-03-13
Watch Full Video of Vladimir Putin's Interview With Rossiya Segodnya Chief Kiselev, Sputnik International, 2024-03-13
Putin, vampire ball is ending. France leaked docs; Ukraine can'\''t win. Biden, Orban dictatorship, Alex Christoforou, 2024-03-13
Copyleft: CC0
Amen to your last sentence, brother, though unfortunately I don't see it happening out of the obvious reason that ANY settlement in which Russia is dictating the terms would in essence mean the end of the EU and of "Pax Americana" as we know it, and that is certainly unacceptable for the puppets of Londra/ Fashington occupying the power corridors in Brussels.
Hence, their only chance is to double down on their insane suicidal aggression, which is the precise manner in which all empires act... They have positioned themselves between the rock of a Russian military victory against an impotent and divided NATO and the hard place of escalating to the point of risking nuclear destruction. You and I know very well which path the delusional lunatic puppets are more willing and certain to take...